Demand Regime of Turkey: A Post-Keynesian Econometric Analysis

Year 2019, Volume: 27 Issue: 42, 163 - 180, 31.10.2019

Anıl Bölükoğlu

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.04.09

Cited By: 3

Abstract

The aim of this study is to analyse, from a Post-Keynesian perspective, how factor income distribution affects growth potential of Turkey. To do this, the study estimates Turkey’s demand regime between 1998-2018 by using quarterly data on the basis of the model developed by Bhaduri and Marglin (1990) and through the empirical approach of Naastepad (2006). According to the results of the study, the demand regime of Turkey is found to be wage-led. In other words, positive effect of the expansion in consumption expenditures on economic growth triggered by increased wage shares is found to be greater than its contractionary effects on investment and export. According to the empirical results, it is argued that pro-labor economic policies would make positive contribution to economic growth in Turkey.

Keywords

Growth, Functional Income Distribution, Post-Keynesian Economics

Türkiye’nin Talep Rejimi: Post-Keynesyen Ekonometrik Bir Analiz

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı emek ve sermaye arasındaki gelir dağılımının Türkiye’nin büyüme potansiyelini nasıl etkilediğini Post-Keynesyen bir açıdan incelemektir. Bu doğrultuda çalışma Bhaduri ve Marglin’in (1990) geliştirdiği model temelinde Naastepad’ın (2006) ampirik yaklaşımı aracılığıyla 1998-2019 yılları arasında çeyrek dönemlik veriler yardımıyla Türkiye’nin talep rejimini tahmin etmektedir. Bu çalışmanın sonuçlarına göre adı geçen zaman aralığında talep rejimi ücret çekişli bulunmuştur. Diğer bir deyişle ücret paylarındaki artıştan kaynaklanan tüketim harcamalarındaki genişlemenin büyüme üzerindeki olumlu etkisinin, yatırım ve ihracat üzerindeki daraltıcı etkisinden büyük olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bu ampirik sonuçlar temelinde emek yanlısı iktisat politikalarının ekonomik büyümeye olumlu katkıda bulunacağı ileri sürülmüştür.

Keywords

Büyüme, Fonksiyonel Gelir Dağılımı, Post Keynesyen İktisat

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