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The Effects of Economic Recessions on Divorce Rates: A Research on Turkey

Year 2021, Volume: 29 Issue: 49, 65 - 84, 30.07.2021

Pınar Koç , Aziz Kutlar

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.03.04
Cited By: 1

Abstract

This study analyses the relationship between short- and long-term relationships between divorce rates and economic recession in Turkey. The asymmetric and time-varying asymmetric causality tests are used to analyse the short-term relationship, the Maki cointegration test is used to analyse the long-term relationship. The dependent variable of the model is the divorce rate. Labour force participation rate of women, unemployment rate, GDP per capita, legal regulations, and economic crises are independent variables. According to the estimation results, unemployment, national income, legal regulations, and economic crises positively affect divorce rates. The time-varying asymmetric causality test results also indicate a temporary causality relationship between positive income and unemployment shocks.

Keywords

Asymmetric Causality Tests Cointegration Tests Divorce Rates Economic Recessions

References

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  • Amato, P.R. & B. Beattie (2011), “Does the Unemployment Rate Affect the Divorce Rate? An Analysis of State Data 1960-2005”, Social Science Research, 40(1), 705-715.
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  • Fischer, T. & A.C. Liefbroer (2006), “For Richer, For Poorer: The Impact of Macroeconomic Conditions on Union Dissolution Rates in the Netherlands 1972-1996”, European Sociological Review, 22(5), 519-532.
  • Friedberg, L. (1998), “Did Unilateral Divorce Raise Divorce Rates? Evidence from Panel Data?”, American Economic Review, 88(3), 608-627.
  • Gavcar, E. & E. Noyan & C. Tosun (2020), “Boşanmayı Etkileyen Faktörlerin Belirlenmesine Yönelik Bir Araştırma (Muğla İli Fethiye İlçesi Örneği)”, Nevşehir Hacı Bektaşi Veli Üniversitesi SBE Dergisi, 10(2), 730-745.
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  • Gonz´alez-Val, R. & M. Marc´en (2017),” Divorce and the Business Cycle: A Cross-Country Analysis”, Review of Economics of the Household, 15, 879-904.
  • González-Val, R. & T.K. Viitanen (2009), “The Effect of Divorce Laws on Divorce Rates in Europe”, European Economic Review, 53(2), 127-138.
  • Goode, W.J. (1963), World Revolution and Family Patterns, New York, NY: Free Press.
  • Goode, W.J. (1971), “Force and Violence in the Family”, Journal of Marriage and the Family, 33, 624-636.
  • Hacker, R.S. & A. Hatemi-J (2006), “Tests for Causality Between Integrated Variables Using Asymptotic and Bootstrap Distributions: Theory and Application”, Journal of Applied Economics, 38, 1489-1500.
  • Hansen, H. (2005), “Unemployment and Marital Dissolution: A Panel Data Study of Norway”, European Sociological Review, 21, 135-148.
  • Hareven, T.K. (1976), “Modernization and Family History: Perspectives on Social Change”, Signs, 2(1), 190-206.
  • Harknett, K. & D. Schneider (2012), Is a Bad Economy Good for Marriage? The Relationship Between Macroeconomic Conditions and Marital Stability from 1998-2009, <http://www.npc.umich.edu/publications/u/2012-06%20NPC%20Working%20Paper.pdf>, 01.11.2020.
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  • Koç, T. (2019), “Türkiye’de Boşanma Oranlarını Etkileyen Faktörlerin Beta Regresyon Modeli İle Belirlenmesi”, Avrasya Uluslararası Araştırmalar Dergisi, 7(16), 1111-1117.
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  • Lee, G.R. (1982), Family Structure and Interaction: A Comparative Analysis, Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.
  • Levinger, G. (1976), “A Social Psychological Perspective on Marital Dissolution”, Journal of Social Issues, 32(1), 21-47.
  • Lewin, A.C. (2005), “The Effect of Economic Stability on Family Stability Among Welfare Recipients”, Evaluation Review, 29, 223-240.
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  • Nurlaelawati, E. (2013), “Muslim Women in Indonesian Religious Courts: Reform, Strategies and Pronouncement of Divorce”, Islamic Law and Society, 20, 242-271.
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Ekonomik Resesyonların Boşanma Oranları Üzerindeki Etkileri: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Araştırma

Year 2021, Volume: 29 Issue: 49, 65 - 84, 30.07.2021

Pınar Koç , Aziz Kutlar

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.03.04
Cited By: 1

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’de ekonomik resesyonlar ile boşanma oranları arasındaki kısa ve uzun dönemli ilişkileri analiz etmektir. Uzun dönemli ilişkiyi analiz etmek için Maki eşbütünleşme testi, kısa dönemli ilişkiyi analiz etmek için asimetrik ve zamanla değişen asimetrik nedensellik testleri kullanılmıştır. Modelin bağımlı değişkeni, boşanma oranıdır. Kadınların işgücüne katılım oranı, toplam işsizlik oranı, kişi başına düşen GSYİH, yasal düzenlemeler ve ekonomik krizler bağımsız değişkenlerdir. Tahmin sonuçlarına göre kadınların işgücüne katılım oranları, işsizlik oranları, ulusal gelir, yasal düzenlemeler ve ekonomik krizler boşanma oranlarını pozitif etkilemektedir. Zamanla değişen asimetrik nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre pozitif gelir ve işsizlik şokları arasında geçici bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmaktadır.

Keywords

Asimetrik Nedensellik Testleri Koentegreasyon Testleri Boşanma Oranları Ekonomik Resesyonlar

References

  • Aktaş-Akoğlu, Ö. & H. Küçükkaragöz (2018), “Boşanma Nedenleri ve Boşanma Sonrasında Karşılaşılan Güçlüklere İlişkin Bir Araştırma: İzmir İli Örneği”, Toplum ve Sosyal Hizmet, 29(1), 153-172.
  • Alola, A.A. & O. Arikewuyo & S.S. Akadiri & M.I. Alola (2020), “The Role of Income and Gender Unemployment in Divorce Rate Among the OECD Countries”, Journal of Labor and Society, 23(1), 75-86.
  • Amato, P.R. & B. Beattie (2011), “Does the Unemployment Rate Affect the Divorce Rate? An Analysis of State Data 1960-2005”, Social Science Research, 40(1), 705-715.
  • Arkes, J. & Y.C. Shen (2010), For Better or For Worse, But How About a Recession, <https://www.nber.org/papers/w16525>, 11.10.2020.
  • Atik, H. (2020), “Türkiye’de Boşanmaya Yol Açan Faktörler: 2012-2018 Dönemi İçin Bir Ampirik Bir Analiz”, Uluslararası Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 13(70), 1223-1232.
  • Aydın, O. & G. Baran, (2010), “Toplumsal Değişme Sürecinde Evlenme ve Boşanma”, Toplum ve Sosyal Hizmet, 21(2), 117-126.
  • Ayhan, S. (2018), Sebep ve Sonuçlarıyla Türkiye’de Boşanma Sorunu, İstanbul, <http://sdam.org.tr/haber/178-sebep-ve-sonuclariyla-turkiyede-bosanma-sorunu/>, 10.10.2020.
  • Başkaya, Z. & A. Ünal, (2017), “Türkiye’de Evlenme Ve Boşanma Oranlarının İller Düzeyinde Zamansal Değişimi (2001-2015)”, Uluslararası Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 53(10), 338-358.
  • Bayrak, S. (2019), “Türkiye’de İşsizlik ve Boşanma İlişkisi: 1980-2017 Dönemi İçin Nedensellik Analizi”, Çalışma İlişkileri Dergisi, 10(1), 39-54.
  • Binay, M. (2018), “Türkiye’de Boşanma Nedenlerinin Analizi veAlternatif Uyuşmazlık Yöntemleri”, Ombudsman Akademik, 5(9), 237-267.
  • Bramlett, M.D. & W.D. Mosher (2001), “First Marriage Dissolution, Divorce, and Remarriage: United States”, Advance Data, 323, 1-20.
  • Brown, S.L. & L.F. Lin (2012), “The Gray Divorce Revolution: Rising Divorce among Middle-Aged and Older Adults 1990-2010”, The Journal of Gerontology, 67(6), 731-741.
  • Chan, T.W. & B. Halpin (2005), “The Instability of Divorce Risk Factors in the UK”, Working Paper, Oxford: University of Oxford.
  • Cherlin, A.J. (1991), Marriage, Divorce, Remarriage, Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
  • Cherlin, A.J. (2009), “The Origins of the Ambivalent Acceptance of Divorce”, Journal of Marriage and Family, 71, 226-229.
  • Clarke-Stewart, K.A. & C. Brentano (2006), Divorce: Causes and Consequences, New Haven: Yale University Press.
  • Cohen. P.N. (2014), “Recession and Divorce in the United States, 2008-2011”, Population Research and Policy Review, 33(5), 615-628.
  • Cole, C.L. & E.A. Powers (1973). “Industrialization and Divorce: A Cross-Cultural Analysis”, International Journal of Sociology of the Family, 3(1), 42-47.
  • Conger, R. & M. Rueter & G. Elder (1999), “Couple Resilience to Economic Pressure”, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 76(1), 54-71.
  • Conger, R.D. & G.H. Elder (1994), Families in Troubled Times: Adapting to Change in Rural America, New York: Aldine de Gruyter.
  • Cooke, L.P. & V. Gash (2010). “Wives’ Part-time Employment and Marital Stability in Great Britain, West Germany, and the United States”, Sociology, 44(6), 1091-1108.
  • Doğan, C. (1998), “Türkiye’de Boşanma Sorununun Sosyolojik ve İstatistiki Açıdan Değerlendirilmesi”, Sosyoloji Konferansları, 25, 59-69.
  • Drewianka, S. (2008), “Divorce Law and Family Formation”, Journal of Population Economics, 21, 485-503.
  • Elder’s, G.H. (1974), Children of the Great Depression: Social Change in Life Experience, Boulder: Westview Press.
  • Ersöz, A. (2011), “Türkiye’de Boşanma Olgusu ve Kadına Yönelik Aile İçi Şiddet İlişkisi Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme”, Sosyoloji Konferansları, 43, 249-264.
  • Fergusson, D.M. & L.J. Horwood & F.T. Shannon (1984), “A Proportional Hazards Model of Family Breakdown”, Journal of Marriage and The Family, 46, 539-549.
  • Fischer, T. & A.C. Liefbroer (2006), “For Richer, For Poorer: The Impact of Macroeconomic Conditions on Union Dissolution Rates in the Netherlands 1972-1996”, European Sociological Review, 22(5), 519-532.
  • Friedberg, L. (1998), “Did Unilateral Divorce Raise Divorce Rates? Evidence from Panel Data?”, American Economic Review, 88(3), 608-627.
  • Gavcar, E. & E. Noyan & C. Tosun (2020), “Boşanmayı Etkileyen Faktörlerin Belirlenmesine Yönelik Bir Araştırma (Muğla İli Fethiye İlçesi Örneği)”, Nevşehir Hacı Bektaşi Veli Üniversitesi SBE Dergisi, 10(2), 730-745.
  • Glenn, N. & M. Supancic (1984), “Sociological and Demographic Correlates of Divorce and Separation in the United States: An Update and Reconsideration”, Journal of Marriage and the Family, 46, 563-576.
  • Gonz´alez-Val, R. & M. Marc´en (2017),” Divorce and the Business Cycle: A Cross-Country Analysis”, Review of Economics of the Household, 15, 879-904.
  • González-Val, R. & T.K. Viitanen (2009), “The Effect of Divorce Laws on Divorce Rates in Europe”, European Economic Review, 53(2), 127-138.
  • Goode, W.J. (1963), World Revolution and Family Patterns, New York, NY: Free Press.
  • Goode, W.J. (1971), “Force and Violence in the Family”, Journal of Marriage and the Family, 33, 624-636.
  • Hacker, R.S. & A. Hatemi-J (2006), “Tests for Causality Between Integrated Variables Using Asymptotic and Bootstrap Distributions: Theory and Application”, Journal of Applied Economics, 38, 1489-1500.
  • Hansen, H. (2005), “Unemployment and Marital Dissolution: A Panel Data Study of Norway”, European Sociological Review, 21, 135-148.
  • Hareven, T.K. (1976), “Modernization and Family History: Perspectives on Social Change”, Signs, 2(1), 190-206.
  • Harknett, K. & D. Schneider (2012), Is a Bad Economy Good for Marriage? The Relationship Between Macroeconomic Conditions and Marital Stability from 1998-2009, <http://www.npc.umich.edu/publications/u/2012-06%20NPC%20Working%20Paper.pdf>, 01.11.2020.
  • Hatemi-J, A. (2012), “Asymmetric Causality Tests with an Application”, Empirical Economics, 43(1), 447-456.
  • Heise, L.L. (1998), “Violence Against Women an Integrated, Ecological Framework”, Violence Against Women, 4(3), 262-290.
  • Hellerstein, J.K. & M.S. Morrill (2011), “Booms, Busts, and Divorce”, The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 11(1), 1-23.
  • Hoffman, S. (1977), “Marital Instability and The Economic Status of Women”, Demography, 14, 67-76.
  • Jalovaara, M. (2003), “The Joint Effects of Marriage Partners’ Socioeconomic Positions on the Risk of Divorce”, Demography, 40(1), 67-81.
  • Jensen, P. & N. Smith (1990), “Unemployment and Marital Dissolution”, Journal of Population Economics, 3, 215-229.
  • Johnson, D. & A. Booth (1990), “Rural Economic Decline and Marital Quality: A Panel Study of Farm Families”, Family Relations, 39, 159-165.
  • Jones, G.W. (1997), “Modernization and Divorce: Contrasting Trends in Islamic Southeast Asia and the West”, Population and Development Review, 23(1), 95-114.
  • Kapetanios, G. (2005), “Unit-root Testing against the Alternative Hypothesis of up to M Structural Breaks”, Journal of Time Series Analysis, 26(1), 123-133.
  • Kerckoff, A.C. (1972), “The structure of conjugal relationships in industrial societies”, in: M.B. Sussman & B.E. Cogswell (eds.), Cross-national Family Research, The Netherlands: E. J. Brill, 53-69.
  • Kneip, T. & G. Bauer, (2009), “Did Unilateral Divorce Laws Divorce Rates in Western Europe”, Journal Marrige and Family, 71(3), 592-607.
  • Koç, T. (2019), “Türkiye’de Boşanma Oranlarını Etkileyen Faktörlerin Beta Regresyon Modeli İle Belirlenmesi”, Avrasya Uluslararası Araştırmalar Dergisi, 7(16), 1111-1117.
  • Komarovsky, M. (1940), The Unemployed Man and His Family, Newyork: Dreyden Press.
  • Kreager, D.A. & R.B. Felson & C. Warner & M.R. Wenger (2013), “Women’s Education, Marital Violence, and Divorce: A Social Exchange Perspective”, Journal of Marriage and Family, 75(3), 565-581.
  • Lee, G.R. (1982), Family Structure and Interaction: A Comparative Analysis, Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.
  • Levinger, G. (1976), “A Social Psychological Perspective on Marital Dissolution”, Journal of Social Issues, 32(1), 21-47.
  • Lewin, A.C. (2005), “The Effect of Economic Stability on Family Stability Among Welfare Recipients”, Evaluation Review, 29, 223-240.
  • Maki, D. (2012), “Tests for Cointegration Allowing for an Unknown Number of Breaks”, Economic Modelling, 29(5), 2011-2015.
  • Nurlaelawati, E. (2013), “Muslim Women in Indonesian Religious Courts: Reform, Strategies and Pronouncement of Divorce”, Islamic Law and Society, 20, 242-271.
  • Onaran, Ö. (2008), “Jobless Growth in the Central and Eastern European Countries and Eastern Countries”, Eastern European Economics, 46(4), 90-115.
  • Payne, K.K. (2014), The Divorce Rate and The Great Recession, <https://scholarworks.bgsu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1104&context=ncfmr_family_profiles>, 01.11.2020.
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There are 83 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Pınar Koç 0000-0002-7843-1228

Aziz Kutlar 0000-0001-9080-3672

Publication Date July 30, 2021
Submission Date October 17, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2021 Volume: 29 Issue: 49

Cite

APA Koç, P., & Kutlar, A. (2021). The Effects of Economic Recessions on Divorce Rates: A Research on Turkey. Sosyoekonomi, 29(49), 65-84. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.03.04
AMA Koç P, Kutlar A. The Effects of Economic Recessions on Divorce Rates: A Research on Turkey. Sosyoekonomi. July 2021;29(49):65-84. doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.03.04
Chicago Koç, Pınar, and Aziz Kutlar. “The Effects of Economic Recessions on Divorce Rates: A Research on Turkey”. Sosyoekonomi 29, no. 49 (July 2021): 65-84. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.03.04.
EndNote Koç P, Kutlar A (July 1, 2021) The Effects of Economic Recessions on Divorce Rates: A Research on Turkey. Sosyoekonomi 29 49 65–84.
IEEE P. Koç and A. Kutlar, “The Effects of Economic Recessions on Divorce Rates: A Research on Turkey”, Sosyoekonomi, vol. 29, no. 49, pp. 65–84, 2021, doi: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.03.04.
ISNAD Koç, Pınar - Kutlar, Aziz. “The Effects of Economic Recessions on Divorce Rates: A Research on Turkey”. Sosyoekonomi 29/49 (July 2021), 65-84. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.03.04.
JAMA Koç P, Kutlar A. The Effects of Economic Recessions on Divorce Rates: A Research on Turkey. Sosyoekonomi. 2021;29:65–84.
MLA Koç, Pınar and Aziz Kutlar. “The Effects of Economic Recessions on Divorce Rates: A Research on Turkey”. Sosyoekonomi, vol. 29, no. 49, 2021, pp. 65-84, doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.03.04.
Vancouver Koç P, Kutlar A. The Effects of Economic Recessions on Divorce Rates: A Research on Turkey. Sosyoekonomi. 2021;29(49):65-84.

Cited By

Seçilmiş Makroekonomik, Sosyal Değişkenler ve İnternet Penetrasyon Oranının Medeni Durum ile İlişkisi Üzerine Analiz
Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi
https://doi.org/10.17153/oguiibf.1291620
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