Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Dış Borç ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Panel Nedensellik İlişkisi

Year 2022, Volume: 30 Issue: 52, 27 - 36, 28.04.2022

Tuba Gülcemal

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.02.02

Cited By: 2

Abstract

Bu makale GSYH, enflasyon ve ticari açıklık değişkenlerinin toplam dış borç üzerindeki açıklama gücünü ve bu değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin yönü ve nedenselliği hakkında bilgi edinmek için yapılmıştır. Analize dahil olan gelişmekte olan ülkeler Arjantin, Brezilya, Rusya, Türkiye, Filipinler ve Güney Afrika’dır. Kesitsel birimler arası potansiyel heterojenlik, dinamikler, geri besleme etkileri ve yatay kesit bağımlılığı gibi panel veri modelleriyle ilgili zaman serisi analizlerinin eksikliklerini kontrol etmek için, 1990-2019 dönemi için altı gelişmekte olan ekonomiye ait panel veriyi kullanarak panel birim kök testlerine ek olarak, Gengenbach, Urbain ve Westerlund ve Pedroni'nin PDOLS, DOLSMG ve Heterojen Dumitrescu & Hurlin Nedensellik Testi ve Heterojen VAR Modeli gibi panel eşbütünleşme testleri uygulanmıştır. Seçilmiş tahmin ediciler tarafından elde edilen ampirik kanıtlar, çalışma dönemi için seçilen ülkelerdeki toplam dış borç üzerinde GSYH, enflasyon ve ticari açıklığın uzun dönemde farklı etkilerini göstermektedir. Ayrıca tüm panel veriler için toplam dış borç değişkeninden GSYİH değişkenine bir nedensellik vardır. Birimler için VAR modeli sonuçları incelendiğinde, gecikmeli toplam dış borç değişkeni Rusya ve Güney Afrika'da GSYİH'yi açıklamada anlamlıdır. Ayrıca Filipinler, Güney Afrika ve Türkiye'de toplam dış borçtan enflasyona bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu ve dış borç değişkeninin enflasyonu açıklamada anlamlı olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır.

Keywords

Dış Borç, Ekonomik Büyüme, Panel Eşbütünleşme Testi, Panel Nedensellik Testi

External Debt and Economic Growth in Emerging Economies: Panel Causality Analysis

Abstract

This paper is conducted to obtain information about the explanation power of GDP, consumer price index, and trade openness variables on total external debt and the relationship between these variables for six emerging countries: Argentina, Brazil, Russia, Turkey, Philippines, and South Africa. To control for cross-sectional dependency heterogeneity across cross-sectional units, using panel data on six emerging economies for the period 1990-2019, panel unit root tests, panel cointegration tests such as Gengenbach, Urbain and Westerlund, and Pedroni’s PDOLS, DOLSMG, and Heterogenous Dumistrescu & Hurlin Causality Test and Heterogenous VAR Model applied. The empirical results by appropriate estimators show the different effects of GDP, inflation and trade openness on long-run total external debt in the sample countries for the analysis period. There is also a causality from the total external debt to the GDP variable for all panel data. When the VAR model results for the units are examined, the lagged total external debt variable is meaningful in explaining the GDP in Russia and South Africa. In addition, it has been concluded that causality from the total external debt to the inflation and the total external debt variable is meaningful in explaining the inflation in the Philippines, South Africa, and Turkey.

Keywords

External Debt, Economic Growth, Panel Co-integration Test, Panel Causality Test

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