Do International Agricultural Commodity Prices Have an Effect on the Stock Market Index? A Comparative Analysis Between Poland and Turkey

Year 2022, Volume: 30 Issue: 52, 87 - 107, 28.04.2022

Kenan İlarslan , Münevvere Yıldız

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.02.06

Cited By: 2

Abstract

This study analysed the effects of international wheat, rice, sugar, and beef prices on Turkish and Polish stock exchange markets through the quantile regression and cointegration regressions methods from December 2008-November 2020. As a result of the analysis, it cannot be said that agricultural commodities do not affect stock market indices. Also, empirical evidence suggests that the impact of agricultural commodities on the Turkish stock market is more significant than on the Polish stock market. This may be because Poland’s economic ecosystem is more industrialised than Turkey’s. Further, these findings indicate that agricultural commodities have both similar and different effects on the stock market indices of these two countries.

Keywords

Agricultural Commodity, Stock Market Index, Quantile Regression

Uluslararası Tarımsal Emtia Fiyatlarının Borsa Endeksi Üzerinde Etkisi Var Mıdır? Polonya ve Türkiye Arasında Karşılaştırmalı Bir Analiz

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, uluslarası buğday, pirinç, şeker ve sığır eti fiyatlarının Türkiye ve Polonya borsalarına etkileri kantil regresyon ve eşbütünleşme regresyonları yöntemleri ile Aralık 2008-Kasım 2020 dönemi için analiz edilmiştir. Analizler sonucunda tarımsal emtiaların borsa endeksleri üzerinde hiçbir etkisinin olmadığı söylenemez. Ayrıca amprik kanıtlar, tarımsal emtiaların Türkiye borsası üzerindeki etkisinin Polonya borsasına göre daha fazla olduğunu göstermektedir. Bunun nedeni Polonya’nın ekonomik ekosisteminin Türkiye’den daha fazla sanayileşmiş olması olabilir. Ayrıca, bu bulgular tarımsal emtiaların bu iki ülkenin borsa endeksleri üzerinde hem benzer hem de farklı etkileri olduğunu göstermektedir.

Keywords

Tarımsal Emtia, Borsa Endeksi, Kantil Regresyon

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