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Türk Bankacılık Sektöründe Kredi Riskinin Belirleyicileri: Sahiplik Yapısı Önemli Mi?

Year 2023, Volume: 31 Issue: 55, 49 - 67, 31.01.2023

İbrahim Yağlı , Mert Topcu

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2023.01.03
Cited By: 1

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, 2003-2018 döneminde Türk bankacılık sektöründe kredi riskini etkileyen içsel ve dışsal faktörleri araştırmaktır. Diğer çalışmalardan farklı olarak, mevcut çalışma makroekonomik faktörlerin kredi riski üzerindeki etkisini dinamik bir çerçeve içinde ölçmek için heterojenlik ve kesit bağımlılığını dikkate alan Genişletilmiş Ortalama Grup tahmincisi kullanmaktadır. Bulgular hem içsel hem de dışsal faktörlerin kredi riskini etkilediğini ve bu faktörlerin etkisinin sahiplik yapısına göre önemli ölçüde değiştiğini göstermektedir. Bu sonuçlar, Türk bankacılık sektöründe sahiplik yapısı göz önüne alınmadan yapılan düzenlemelerin tüm sektör için uygun olmayacağını ve dolayısıyla kredi riski yönetiminin gözden geçirilmesi gerektiğini göstermektedir.

Keywords

Kredi Riski Türk Bankacılık Sektörü Sahiplik Yapısı Panel Veri Heterojenlik

References

  • Ahmad, N.H. & M. Ariff (2008), “Multi-country study of bank credit risk determinants”, International Journal of Banking and Finance, 5(1), 135-152.
  • Ali, A. & K. Daly (2010), “Macroeconomic determinants of credit risk: Recent evidence from a cross country study”, International Review of Financial Analysis, 19(3), 165-171.
  • Beck, R. et al. (2013), “Non-Performing Loans: What Matters in Addition to the Economic Cycle?”, ECB Working Paper.
  • Beck, T. & M.S. Martinez Peria (2008), Foreign bank acquisitions and outreach: Evidence from Mexico, The World Bank.
  • Berger, A.N. & R. DeYoung (1997), “Problem loans and cost efficiency in commercial banks”, Journal of Banking & Finance, 21(6), 849-870.
  • Bertay, A.C. et al. (2015), “Bank ownership and credit over the business cycle: Is lending by state banks less procyclical?”, Journal of Banking & Finance, 50, 326-339.
  • Boateng, A. et al. (2019), “Politically connected boards, ownership structure and credit risk: Evidence from Chinese commercial banks”, Research in International Business and Finance, 47, 162-173.
  • Bond, S.R. & M. Eberhardt (2013), “Accounting for unobserved heterogeneity in panel time series models”, Discussing Paper, Nottingham, UK.
  • Bonin, J.P. et al. (2005a), “Privatization matters: Bank efficiency in transition countries”, Journal of Banking & Finance, 29(8-9), 2155-2178.
  • Bonin, J.P. et al. (2005b), “Bank performance, efficiency and ownership in transition countries”, Journal of Banking & Finance, 29(1), 31-53.
  • Brei, M. & A. Schclarek (2013), “Public bank lending in times of crisis”, Journal of Financial Stability, 9(4), 820-830.
  • Burki, A.A. & G.S.K. Niazi (2010), “Impact of financial reforms on efficiency of state-owned, private and foreign banks in Pakistan”, Applied Economics, 42(24), 3147-3160.
  • Castro, V. (2013), “Macroeconomic determinants of the credit risk in the banking system: The case of the GIPSI”, Economic Modelling, 31, 672-683.
  • Chaibi, H. & Z. Ftiti (2015), “Credit risk determinants: Evidence from a cross-country study”, Research in International Business and Finance, 33, 1-16.
  • Çetinkaya, H. (2019), “Bankacılık sektöründe kredi riskinin temel belirleyicilerine yönelik ampirik bir çalışma”, İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi, 6(2), 121-134.
  • Çolak, M.S. & A. Şenol (2021), “Bank ownership and lending dynamics: Evidence from Turkish banking sector”, International Review of Economics & Finance, 72, 583-605.
  • Demirel, B. (2016), “Türk Bankacılık Sisteminde Kredi Riski ve Modellenmesi”, Sosyoekonomi, 24(29), 23-44.
  • Demsetz, R.S. et al. (1996), “Banks with something to lose: The disciplinary role of franchise value”, Economic Policy Review, 2(2), 1-14.
  • Detragiache, E. et al. (2008), “Foreign banks in poor countries: Theory and evidence”, The Journal of Finance, 63(5), 2123-2160.
  • Di Patti, E.B. & D.C. Hardy (2005), “Financial sector liberalization, bank privatization, and efficiency: Evidence from Pakistan”, Journal of Banking & Finance, 29(8-9), 2381-2406.
  • Dinç, I.S. (2005), “Politicians and banks: Political influences on government-owned banks in emerging markets”, Journal of Financial Economics, 77(2), 453-479.
  • Eberhardt, M. & F. Teal (2010), “Productivity analysis in global manufacturing production”, Economics Series Working Papers 515, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  • Eberhardt, M. & S. Bond (2009), “Cross-section dependence in nonstationary panel models: A novel estimator”, Munich Personal RePEc Archive Working Paper.
  • Ersoy, E. (2021), “The determinants of the non-performing loans: The case of Turkish banking sector”, International Journal of Insurance and Finance, 1(2), 1-11.
  • Espinoza, R.A. & A. Prasad (2010), Nonperforming loans in the GCC banking system and their macroeconomic effects, International Monetary Fund.
  • Gavin, M. & R. Hausmann (1996), “The Roots of Banking Crises: The Macroeconomic”, in: Banking Crises in Latin America (25-79), John Hopkins University Press, Washington.
  • Ghosh, A. (2015), “Banking-industry specific and regional economic determinants of non-performing loans: Evidence from US states”, Journal of Financial Stability, 20, 93-104.
  • González-Hermosillo, M.B. (1999), Determinants of ex-ante banking system distress: A macro-micro empirical exploration of some recent episodes, International Monetary Fund.
  • Gulati, R. et al. (2019), “What drives credit risk in the Indian banking industry? An empirical investigation”, Economic Systems, 43(1), 42-62.
  • Hamid, F.S. (2020), “Bank lending and the business cycle: Does ownership matter in ASEAN countries?”, Journal of Asian Economics, 66, 101153.
  • Isik, I. & M.K. Hassan (2002), “Cost and profit efficiency of the Turkish banking industry: An empirical investigation”, Financial Review, 37(2), 257-279.
  • Isik, I. & M.K. Hassan (2003), “Efficiency, ownership and market structure, corporate control and governance in the Turkish banking industry”, Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 30(9‐10), 1363-1421.
  • Jiménez, G. et al. (2013), “How does competition affect bank risk-taking?”, Journal of Financial Stability, 9(2), 185-195.
  • Karavias, Y. & E. Tzavalis (2014), “Testing for unit roots in short panels allowing for a structural break”, Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 76, 391-407.
  • Kasman, S. & A. Kasman (2015), “Bank competition, concentration and financial stability in the Turkish banking industry”, Economic Systems, 39(3), 502-517.
  • Keeton, W.R. & C.S. Morris (1987), “Why do banks’ loan losses differ”, Economic Review, 72(5), 3-21.
  • Klein, N. (2013), Non-performing loans in CESEE: Determinants and impact on macroeconomic performance, International Monetary Fund.
  • La Porta, R. et al. (2002), “Government ownership of banks”, The Journal of Finance, 57(1), 265-301.
  • Louzis, D.P. et al. (2012), “Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: A comparative study of mortgage, business and consumer loan portfolios”, Journal of Banking & Finance, 36(4), 1012-1027.
  • March, J.G. & Z. Shapira (1987), “Managerial perspectives on risk and risk taking”, Management Science, 33(11), 1404-1418.
  • Mercan, M. et al. (2003), “The effect of scale and mode of ownership on the financial performance of the Turkish banking sector: Results of a DEA-based analysis”, Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 37(3), 185-202.
  • Nkusu, M.M. (2011), Nonperforming loans and macrofinancial vulnerabilities in advanced economies, International Monetary Fund.
  • Ozcan, I. & S. Bolat (2016), “Determinants of non-performing loans of deposit banks in Turkey”, Journal of Business Economics and Finance, 5(4), 341-350.
  • Pesaran, M.H. & R. Smith (1995), “Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels”, Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 79-113.
  • Pesaran, M.H. & T. Yamagata (2008), “Testing slope homogeneity in large panels”, Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93.
  • Pesaran, M.H. (2004), “General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels”, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics No. 0435, University of Cambridge, June.
  • Pesaran, M.H. (2007), “A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross section dependence”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22, 265-312.
  • Rajan, R.G. (1994), “Why Bank Credit Policies Fluctuate: A Theory and Some Evidence”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109(2), 399-441.
  • Reinhart, C.M. & K.S. Rogoff (2011), “From financial crash to debt crisis”, American Economic Review, 101(5), 1676-1706.
  • Rinaldi, L. & A. Sanchis-Arellano (2006), “Household debt sustainability: What explains household non-performing loans? An empirical analysis”, ECB Working Paper.
  • Salas, V. & J. Saurina (2002), “Credit risk in two institutional regimes: Spanish commercial and savings banks”, Journal of Financial Services Research, 22(3), 203-224.
  • Sarafidis, V. & T. Wansbeek (2012), “Cross-sectional dependence in panel data analysis”, Econometric Reviews, 31, 483-531.
  • Stern, G.H. & R.J. Feldman (2004), Too big to fail: The hazards of bank bailouts, Brookings Institution Press.
  • The Banks Association of Turkey (2019), Bank in Turkey 2018 Report, <https://www.tbb.org.tr/en/Content/Upload/Dokuman/161/Banks_in_Turkey_2018.pdf>, 02.03.2022.
  • Us, V. (2017), “Dynamics of non-performing loans in the Turkish banking sector by an ownership breakdown: The impact of the global crisis”, Finance Research Letters, 20, 109-117.
  • Vatansever, M. & A. Hepsen (2015), “Determining impacts on non-performing loan ratio in Turkey”, Journal of Applied Finance and Banking, 5(1), 1.
  • World Bank (2021), World Development Indicators, <http://datacatalog.worldbank.org/>, 02.03.2022.
  • Yuksel, S. (2017), “Determinants of the credit risk in developing countries after economic crisis: A case of Turkish banking sector”, in: Global financial crisis and its ramifications on capital markets (401-415), Springer, Cham.
  • Yurdakul, F. (2014), “Macroeconomic modelling of credit risk for banks”, Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 109, 784-793.
  • Zribi, N. & Y. Boujelbegrave (2011), “The factors influencing bank credit risk: The case of Tunisia”, Journal of Accounting and Taxation, 3(4), 70-78.

Determinants of Credit Risk in the Turkish Banking Sector: Does Ownership Matter?

Year 2023, Volume: 31 Issue: 55, 49 - 67, 31.01.2023

İbrahim Yağlı , Mert Topcu

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2023.01.03
Cited By: 1

Abstract

This study aims to determine the internal and external factors affecting credit risk in the Turkish banking sector from 2003-2018. Unlike previous literature, we employ the Augmented Mean Group estimator with allowance for heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence to analyse the effect of external factors within a dynamic framework. Findings indicate that internal and external factors affect credit risk, and the impact of these factors varies dramatically across ownership structures. These results suggest that one regulation does not fit all to overhaul credit risk management in the Turkish banking sector.

Keywords

Credit Risk Turkish Banking Sector Ownership Structure Panel Data Heterogeneity

References

  • Ahmad, N.H. & M. Ariff (2008), “Multi-country study of bank credit risk determinants”, International Journal of Banking and Finance, 5(1), 135-152.
  • Ali, A. & K. Daly (2010), “Macroeconomic determinants of credit risk: Recent evidence from a cross country study”, International Review of Financial Analysis, 19(3), 165-171.
  • Beck, R. et al. (2013), “Non-Performing Loans: What Matters in Addition to the Economic Cycle?”, ECB Working Paper.
  • Beck, T. & M.S. Martinez Peria (2008), Foreign bank acquisitions and outreach: Evidence from Mexico, The World Bank.
  • Berger, A.N. & R. DeYoung (1997), “Problem loans and cost efficiency in commercial banks”, Journal of Banking & Finance, 21(6), 849-870.
  • Bertay, A.C. et al. (2015), “Bank ownership and credit over the business cycle: Is lending by state banks less procyclical?”, Journal of Banking & Finance, 50, 326-339.
  • Boateng, A. et al. (2019), “Politically connected boards, ownership structure and credit risk: Evidence from Chinese commercial banks”, Research in International Business and Finance, 47, 162-173.
  • Bond, S.R. & M. Eberhardt (2013), “Accounting for unobserved heterogeneity in panel time series models”, Discussing Paper, Nottingham, UK.
  • Bonin, J.P. et al. (2005a), “Privatization matters: Bank efficiency in transition countries”, Journal of Banking & Finance, 29(8-9), 2155-2178.
  • Bonin, J.P. et al. (2005b), “Bank performance, efficiency and ownership in transition countries”, Journal of Banking & Finance, 29(1), 31-53.
  • Brei, M. & A. Schclarek (2013), “Public bank lending in times of crisis”, Journal of Financial Stability, 9(4), 820-830.
  • Burki, A.A. & G.S.K. Niazi (2010), “Impact of financial reforms on efficiency of state-owned, private and foreign banks in Pakistan”, Applied Economics, 42(24), 3147-3160.
  • Castro, V. (2013), “Macroeconomic determinants of the credit risk in the banking system: The case of the GIPSI”, Economic Modelling, 31, 672-683.
  • Chaibi, H. & Z. Ftiti (2015), “Credit risk determinants: Evidence from a cross-country study”, Research in International Business and Finance, 33, 1-16.
  • Çetinkaya, H. (2019), “Bankacılık sektöründe kredi riskinin temel belirleyicilerine yönelik ampirik bir çalışma”, İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi, 6(2), 121-134.
  • Çolak, M.S. & A. Şenol (2021), “Bank ownership and lending dynamics: Evidence from Turkish banking sector”, International Review of Economics & Finance, 72, 583-605.
  • Demirel, B. (2016), “Türk Bankacılık Sisteminde Kredi Riski ve Modellenmesi”, Sosyoekonomi, 24(29), 23-44.
  • Demsetz, R.S. et al. (1996), “Banks with something to lose: The disciplinary role of franchise value”, Economic Policy Review, 2(2), 1-14.
  • Detragiache, E. et al. (2008), “Foreign banks in poor countries: Theory and evidence”, The Journal of Finance, 63(5), 2123-2160.
  • Di Patti, E.B. & D.C. Hardy (2005), “Financial sector liberalization, bank privatization, and efficiency: Evidence from Pakistan”, Journal of Banking & Finance, 29(8-9), 2381-2406.
  • Dinç, I.S. (2005), “Politicians and banks: Political influences on government-owned banks in emerging markets”, Journal of Financial Economics, 77(2), 453-479.
  • Eberhardt, M. & F. Teal (2010), “Productivity analysis in global manufacturing production”, Economics Series Working Papers 515, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  • Eberhardt, M. & S. Bond (2009), “Cross-section dependence in nonstationary panel models: A novel estimator”, Munich Personal RePEc Archive Working Paper.
  • Ersoy, E. (2021), “The determinants of the non-performing loans: The case of Turkish banking sector”, International Journal of Insurance and Finance, 1(2), 1-11.
  • Espinoza, R.A. & A. Prasad (2010), Nonperforming loans in the GCC banking system and their macroeconomic effects, International Monetary Fund.
  • Gavin, M. & R. Hausmann (1996), “The Roots of Banking Crises: The Macroeconomic”, in: Banking Crises in Latin America (25-79), John Hopkins University Press, Washington.
  • Ghosh, A. (2015), “Banking-industry specific and regional economic determinants of non-performing loans: Evidence from US states”, Journal of Financial Stability, 20, 93-104.
  • González-Hermosillo, M.B. (1999), Determinants of ex-ante banking system distress: A macro-micro empirical exploration of some recent episodes, International Monetary Fund.
  • Gulati, R. et al. (2019), “What drives credit risk in the Indian banking industry? An empirical investigation”, Economic Systems, 43(1), 42-62.
  • Hamid, F.S. (2020), “Bank lending and the business cycle: Does ownership matter in ASEAN countries?”, Journal of Asian Economics, 66, 101153.
  • Isik, I. & M.K. Hassan (2002), “Cost and profit efficiency of the Turkish banking industry: An empirical investigation”, Financial Review, 37(2), 257-279.
  • Isik, I. & M.K. Hassan (2003), “Efficiency, ownership and market structure, corporate control and governance in the Turkish banking industry”, Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 30(9‐10), 1363-1421.
  • Jiménez, G. et al. (2013), “How does competition affect bank risk-taking?”, Journal of Financial Stability, 9(2), 185-195.
  • Karavias, Y. & E. Tzavalis (2014), “Testing for unit roots in short panels allowing for a structural break”, Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 76, 391-407.
  • Kasman, S. & A. Kasman (2015), “Bank competition, concentration and financial stability in the Turkish banking industry”, Economic Systems, 39(3), 502-517.
  • Keeton, W.R. & C.S. Morris (1987), “Why do banks’ loan losses differ”, Economic Review, 72(5), 3-21.
  • Klein, N. (2013), Non-performing loans in CESEE: Determinants and impact on macroeconomic performance, International Monetary Fund.
  • La Porta, R. et al. (2002), “Government ownership of banks”, The Journal of Finance, 57(1), 265-301.
  • Louzis, D.P. et al. (2012), “Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: A comparative study of mortgage, business and consumer loan portfolios”, Journal of Banking & Finance, 36(4), 1012-1027.
  • March, J.G. & Z. Shapira (1987), “Managerial perspectives on risk and risk taking”, Management Science, 33(11), 1404-1418.
  • Mercan, M. et al. (2003), “The effect of scale and mode of ownership on the financial performance of the Turkish banking sector: Results of a DEA-based analysis”, Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 37(3), 185-202.
  • Nkusu, M.M. (2011), Nonperforming loans and macrofinancial vulnerabilities in advanced economies, International Monetary Fund.
  • Ozcan, I. & S. Bolat (2016), “Determinants of non-performing loans of deposit banks in Turkey”, Journal of Business Economics and Finance, 5(4), 341-350.
  • Pesaran, M.H. & R. Smith (1995), “Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels”, Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 79-113.
  • Pesaran, M.H. & T. Yamagata (2008), “Testing slope homogeneity in large panels”, Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93.
  • Pesaran, M.H. (2004), “General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels”, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics No. 0435, University of Cambridge, June.
  • Pesaran, M.H. (2007), “A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross section dependence”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22, 265-312.
  • Rajan, R.G. (1994), “Why Bank Credit Policies Fluctuate: A Theory and Some Evidence”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109(2), 399-441.
  • Reinhart, C.M. & K.S. Rogoff (2011), “From financial crash to debt crisis”, American Economic Review, 101(5), 1676-1706.
  • Rinaldi, L. & A. Sanchis-Arellano (2006), “Household debt sustainability: What explains household non-performing loans? An empirical analysis”, ECB Working Paper.
  • Salas, V. & J. Saurina (2002), “Credit risk in two institutional regimes: Spanish commercial and savings banks”, Journal of Financial Services Research, 22(3), 203-224.
  • Sarafidis, V. & T. Wansbeek (2012), “Cross-sectional dependence in panel data analysis”, Econometric Reviews, 31, 483-531.
  • Stern, G.H. & R.J. Feldman (2004), Too big to fail: The hazards of bank bailouts, Brookings Institution Press.
  • The Banks Association of Turkey (2019), Bank in Turkey 2018 Report, <https://www.tbb.org.tr/en/Content/Upload/Dokuman/161/Banks_in_Turkey_2018.pdf>, 02.03.2022.
  • Us, V. (2017), “Dynamics of non-performing loans in the Turkish banking sector by an ownership breakdown: The impact of the global crisis”, Finance Research Letters, 20, 109-117.
  • Vatansever, M. & A. Hepsen (2015), “Determining impacts on non-performing loan ratio in Turkey”, Journal of Applied Finance and Banking, 5(1), 1.
  • World Bank (2021), World Development Indicators, <http://datacatalog.worldbank.org/>, 02.03.2022.
  • Yuksel, S. (2017), “Determinants of the credit risk in developing countries after economic crisis: A case of Turkish banking sector”, in: Global financial crisis and its ramifications on capital markets (401-415), Springer, Cham.
  • Yurdakul, F. (2014), “Macroeconomic modelling of credit risk for banks”, Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 109, 784-793.
  • Zribi, N. & Y. Boujelbegrave (2011), “The factors influencing bank credit risk: The case of Tunisia”, Journal of Accounting and Taxation, 3(4), 70-78.
There are 60 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Articles
Authors

İbrahim Yağlı 0000-0001-8985-0172

Mert Topcu 0000-0001-8236-9810

Publication Date January 31, 2023
Submission Date March 9, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 31 Issue: 55

Cite

APA Yağlı, İ., & Topcu, M. (2023). Determinants of Credit Risk in the Turkish Banking Sector: Does Ownership Matter?. Sosyoekonomi, 31(55), 49-67. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2023.01.03
AMA Yağlı İ, Topcu M. Determinants of Credit Risk in the Turkish Banking Sector: Does Ownership Matter?. Sosyoekonomi. January 2023;31(55):49-67. doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2023.01.03
Chicago Yağlı, İbrahim, and Mert Topcu. “Determinants of Credit Risk in the Turkish Banking Sector: Does Ownership Matter?”. Sosyoekonomi 31, no. 55 (January 2023): 49-67. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2023.01.03.
EndNote Yağlı İ, Topcu M (January 1, 2023) Determinants of Credit Risk in the Turkish Banking Sector: Does Ownership Matter?. Sosyoekonomi 31 55 49–67.
IEEE İ. Yağlı and M. Topcu, “Determinants of Credit Risk in the Turkish Banking Sector: Does Ownership Matter?”, Sosyoekonomi, vol. 31, no. 55, pp. 49–67, 2023, doi: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2023.01.03.
ISNAD Yağlı, İbrahim - Topcu, Mert. “Determinants of Credit Risk in the Turkish Banking Sector: Does Ownership Matter?”. Sosyoekonomi 31/55 (January 2023), 49-67. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2023.01.03.
JAMA Yağlı İ, Topcu M. Determinants of Credit Risk in the Turkish Banking Sector: Does Ownership Matter?. Sosyoekonomi. 2023;31:49–67.
MLA Yağlı, İbrahim and Mert Topcu. “Determinants of Credit Risk in the Turkish Banking Sector: Does Ownership Matter?”. Sosyoekonomi, vol. 31, no. 55, 2023, pp. 49-67, doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2023.01.03.
Vancouver Yağlı İ, Topcu M. Determinants of Credit Risk in the Turkish Banking Sector: Does Ownership Matter?. Sosyoekonomi. 2023;31(55):49-67.

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https://doi.org/10.17065/huniibf.1113344
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