Time-Varying Economic Consequences of Terrorism: The Case of Turkey
Year 2023,
Volume: 31 Issue: 55, 459 - 485, 31.01.2023
Ergün Aktürk
,
Muhammet Daştan
,
Ömer Yalçınkaya
Abstract
This study aims to analyse the economic consequences of terrorism in Turkey over the period of 1970q1-2020q4. For this purpose, the study constructs two different terrorism indices using equal and impact-weighted values of the data belonging to all measurable dimensions of terrorist acts. In addition, the study considers the effects of terrorism on economic growth and its components may vary in different periods (specific periods and short-middle-long terms) and investigates these time-varying effects by employing the TVP-SVAR model. Empirical evidence suggests that time is an important factor in the emergence of the economic consequences of terrorism and/or that these outcomes vary significantly over the sampling period.
References
- Araz‐Takay, B. et al. (2009), “The endogenous and non‐linear relationship between terrorism and economic performance: Turkish evidence”, Defence and Peace Economics, 20(1), 1-10.
- Bardwell, H. & M. Iqbal (2021), “The Economic Impact of Terrorism from 2000 to 2018”, Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 27(2), 227-261.
- Bayar, Y. & M.D. Gavriletea (2018), “Peace, terrorism and economic growth in Middle East and North African countries”, Quality & Quantity, 52(5), 2373-2392.
- Blomberg, S.B. et al. (2011), “New wine in old wineskins? Growth, terrorism and the resource curse in sub-Saharan Africa”, European Journal of Political Economy, 27, 50-63.
- Blomberg, S.B. et al. (2004), “The macroeconomic consequences of terrorism”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 51(5), 1007-1032.
- Brock, W.A. et al. (1996), “A test for independence based on a correlation dimension”, Econometric Review, 15, 197-235.
- Bukhari, N. & M. Masih (2016), “An empirical investigation of causal linkages between domestic terrorism and macroeconomic variables: a case for Pakistan”, MPRA Paper, No. 69768, Munich Personal RePEc Archive.
- Cevik, M.S. & J. Ricco (2015), “Fiscal consequences of terrorism”, IMF Working Paper, WP/15/225, International Monetary Fund.
- Chuku, C. et al. (2019), “Growth and fiscal consequences of terrorism in Nigeria”, Defence and Peace Economics, 30(5), 549-569.
- Crain, N.V. & W.M. Crain (2006), “Terrorized economies”, Public Choice, 128(1), 317-349.
- Cuestas J.C. & D. Garrant (2011), “Is Real GDP Per Capita a Stationary Process? Smooth Transitions, Nonlinear Trends and Unit Root Testing”, Empirical Economics, 41, 555-563.
- Çatık, A.N. (2020), “Electricity, Fossil Fuel Prices And Exchange Rate in Turkey”, Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 23(3), 60-77.
- Dahem, A. et al. (2017), “Time Varying VAR Analysis for Disaggregated Exchange Rate Pass-through in Tunisia”, MPRA Paper, No. 79759, Munich Personal RePEc Archive.
- De Sousa, J. et al. (2009), “Trade and the Spillovers of Transnational Terrorism”, Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, 145(4), 453-461.
- Eckstein, Z. & D. Tsiddon (2004), “Macroeconomic consequences of terror: theory and the case of Israel”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 51(5), 971-1002.
- Enders, W. et al. (2011), “Domestic versus transnational terrorism: data, decomposition, and Dynamics”, J. Peace Res, 48, 319-337.
- Enders, W. & T. Sandler (1996), “Terrorism and foreign direct investment in Spain and Greece”, Kyklos, 49(3), 331-352.
- Enders, W. et al. (1990), “Assessing the impact of terrorist-thwarting policies: an intervention time series approach”, Defence Economics, 2, 1-18.
- Estrada, M.A.R. et al. (2018), “The impact of terrorism on economic performance: The case of Turkey”, Economic Analysis and Policy, 60, 78-88.
- Estrada, M.A.R. et al. (2015), “The economic impact of terrorism: a new model and its application to Pakistan”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 37(6), 1065-1080.
- Feridun, M. & S. Sezgin (2008), “Regional Underdevelopment and Terrorism: The Case of South Eastern Turkey”, Defence and Peace Economics, 19(3), 225-233.
- Gaibulloev, K. & T. Sandler (2008), “The impact of terrorism and conflicts on growth in Asia, 1970-2004”, ADB Institute Discussion Paper, No. 113.
- Gaibulloev, K. & T. Sandler (2009), “The impact of terrorism and conflicts on growth in Asia”, Economics & Politics, 21(3), 359-383.
- Gaibulloev, K. & T. Sandler (2011), “The adverse effect of transnational and domestic terrorism on growth in Africa”, Journal of Peace Research, 48(3), 355-371.
- Gries, T. et al. (2011), “Causal linkages between domestic terrorism and economic growth”, Defence and Peace Economics, 22(5), 493-508.
- Gupta, S. et al. (2002) “Fiscal consequences of armed conflict and terrorism in low-and middle-income countries”, IMF Working Paper, WP/02/142, IMF Fiscal Affairs Department.
- Harvey, D.I. & S.J. Leybourne (2007), “Testing for Time Series Linearity”, Econometrics Journal, 10, 149-165.
- Harvey, D.I. et al. (2008), “A Powerful Test for Linearity When the Order of Integration is Unknown”, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 12(3), 1-22.
- Hoque, M.E. & M.A.S. Zaidi (2019), “The impacts of global economic policy uncertainty on stock market returns in regime switching environment: Evidence from sectoral perspectives”, International Journal of Finance & Economics, 24(2), 991-1016.
- IEP-GTI Institute for Economics and Peace-Global Terrorism Index (2020), Global Terrorism Index 2020: Measuring the Impact of Terrorism, <http://visionofhumanity.org/reports>, Sydney, 02.03.2022.
- Çimen, A. et al. (2016), “Terror Incidents and Economic Growth: The Case of Turkey”, Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 32, 1-14.
- Kapetanios, G. et al. (2003) “Testing for a Unit Root in the Nonlinear STAR Framework”, Journal of Econometrics, 112, 359-379.
- Khan, A. & Z. Yusof (2017), “Terrorist economic impact evaluation (TEIE) model: the case of Pakistan”, Quality & Quantity, 51(3), 1381-1394.
- Koh, W.T. (2007) “Terrorism and its impact on economic growth and technological innovation”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 74(2), 129-138.
- Kruse, R. (2011), “A new unit root test against ESTAR based on a class of modified statistics”, Statistical Papers, 52(1), 71-85.
- Lapan, H. & T. Sandler (1993), “Terrorism and signaling”, European Journal of Political Economy, 9, 383-397.
- Llussá, F. & J. Tavares (2011), “Which terror at which cost? On the economic consequences of terrorist attacks”, Economics Letters, 110(1), 52-55.
- Malik, Z. & K. Zaman (2013), “Macroeconomic consequences of terrorism in Pakistan”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 35(6), 1103-1123.
- Mehmood, S. (2014), “Terrorism and the macroeconomy: Evidence from Pakistan”, Defence and Peace Economics, 25(5), 509-534.
- Mehmood, S. & B. Mehmood (2016), “Hampering Effect of Terrorism on Investment: The South Asian Perspective”, Science International, 28(2), 1475-1479.
- Meierrieks, D. & T. Gries (2012), “Causality between terrorism and economic growth”, Journal of Peace Research, 50(1), 91-104.
- Meierrieks, D. & F. Schneider (2021), “Terrorism and international economic policy”, European Journal of Political Economy, 102011.
- Mubashra, S. (2018), “The impact of counter-terrorism effectiveness on economic growth of Pakistan: An Econometric Analysis”, MPRA Paper, No. 84847, Posted 01 Mar 2018 17:18 UTC.
- Nakajima, J. (2011), “Time-varying parameter VAR model with stochastic volatility: An overview of methodology and empirical applications”, Monetary and Economic Studies, 29, 107-142.
- Nasir, M. et al. (2008), “Terrorism and economic growth: a case study of Pakistan”, GCU Economic Journal, 41(2), 189-208.
- Nitsch, V. & D. Schumacher (2004), “Terrorism and international trade: an empirical investigation”, European Journal of Political Economy, 20(2), 423-433.
- Öcal, N. & J. Yildirim (2010), “Regional effects of terrorism on economic growth in Turkey: A geographically weighted regression approach”, Journal of Peace Research, 47(4), 477-489.
- Primiceri, G.E. (2005), “Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy”, The Review of Economic Studies, 72(3), 821-852.
- Procasky, W.J. & N.U. Ujah (2016), “Terrorism and its impact on the cost of debt”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 60, 253-266.
- Saleem, Q. et al. (2020), “Impact of Terrorism on Economic Growth in South Asian Country”, International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 10(4), 185-191.
- Sekrafi, H. et al. (2020), “The impact of terrorism on formal and informal economy in African countries”, International Journal of Finance & Economics, 26, 1163-1180.
- Sezgin, Ş. et al. (2008), “Güneydoğu Terör Olaylarının Ekonomik Sonuçları”, Akademik İncelemeler, 3(1), 1-17.
- Sezgin, Ş. & S. Sezgin (2018), “Ortadoğu Ülkelerinde Ticaret Hacmi ve Terör İlişkisi, Optimum Ekonomi ve Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi, 5(2), 205-223.
- Shahbaz, M. (2013), “Linkages between inflation, economic growth and terrorism in Pakistan”, Economic Modelling, 32, 496-506.
- Shahbaz, M. et al. (2013), “An analysis of a causal relationship between economic growth and terrorism in Pakistan”, Economic Modelling, 35, 21-29.
- Shahzad, S.J.H. et al. (2016), “Relationship between FDI, terrorism and economic growth in Pakistan: Pre and post 9/11 analysis”, Social Indicators Research, 127(1), 179-194.
- Şimşek, T. & Y. Özkaya (2018), “Türkiye'de Terörizm ve Temel Makroekonomik Göstergeler Arasındaki İlişki”, Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, 17(1), 246-269.
- Şit, M. & H. Karadağ (2019), “Ortadoğu’daki Terörün Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri: Panel Veri Analizi”, ITOBIAD: Journal of the Human & Social Science Researches, 8(2), 1313-29.
- Terasvirta, T. (1994), “Specification, Estimation, and Evaluation of Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 89(425), 208-218.
- Tsay, R.S. (1986), “Nonlinearity Tests for Time Series”, Biometrika, 73(2), 461-466.
- Zakaria, M. et al. (2019), “Effect of terrorism on economic growth in Pakistan: an empirical analysis”, Economic research-Ekonomska istraživanja, 32(1), 1794-1812.
Terörizmin Zamanla Değişen Ekonomik Sonuçları: Türkiye Örneği
Year 2023,
Volume: 31 Issue: 55, 459 - 485, 31.01.2023
Ergün Aktürk
,
Muhammet Daştan
,
Ömer Yalçınkaya
Abstract
Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de terörizmin ekonomik sonuçlarını 1970q1-2020q4 dönemi için incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu amaçla çalışmada, terör eylemlerinin ölçülebilen bütün boyutlarına ait verilerin eşit ve etki-ağırlıklı değerleri kullanılarak iki farklı terörizm endeksi oluşturulmaktadır. Çalışmada ayrıca, terörizmin ekonomik büyüme ve bileşenleri üzerindeki etkilerinin farklı zaman dilimlerinde (belirli dönemlerde ve kısa-orta-uzun vadede) değişkenlik gösterebileceği hususu dikkate alınmakta ve zamanla değişen söz konusu etkiler TVP-SVAR modelinden faydalanılarak araştırılmaktadır. Ampirik kanıtlar, terörizmin ekonomik sonuçlarının ortaya çıkmasında zamanın önemli bir faktör olduğunu ve/veya bu sonuçların analiz döneminde önemli ölçüde değiştiğini ortaya koymaktadır.
References
- Araz‐Takay, B. et al. (2009), “The endogenous and non‐linear relationship between terrorism and economic performance: Turkish evidence”, Defence and Peace Economics, 20(1), 1-10.
- Bardwell, H. & M. Iqbal (2021), “The Economic Impact of Terrorism from 2000 to 2018”, Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 27(2), 227-261.
- Bayar, Y. & M.D. Gavriletea (2018), “Peace, terrorism and economic growth in Middle East and North African countries”, Quality & Quantity, 52(5), 2373-2392.
- Blomberg, S.B. et al. (2011), “New wine in old wineskins? Growth, terrorism and the resource curse in sub-Saharan Africa”, European Journal of Political Economy, 27, 50-63.
- Blomberg, S.B. et al. (2004), “The macroeconomic consequences of terrorism”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 51(5), 1007-1032.
- Brock, W.A. et al. (1996), “A test for independence based on a correlation dimension”, Econometric Review, 15, 197-235.
- Bukhari, N. & M. Masih (2016), “An empirical investigation of causal linkages between domestic terrorism and macroeconomic variables: a case for Pakistan”, MPRA Paper, No. 69768, Munich Personal RePEc Archive.
- Cevik, M.S. & J. Ricco (2015), “Fiscal consequences of terrorism”, IMF Working Paper, WP/15/225, International Monetary Fund.
- Chuku, C. et al. (2019), “Growth and fiscal consequences of terrorism in Nigeria”, Defence and Peace Economics, 30(5), 549-569.
- Crain, N.V. & W.M. Crain (2006), “Terrorized economies”, Public Choice, 128(1), 317-349.
- Cuestas J.C. & D. Garrant (2011), “Is Real GDP Per Capita a Stationary Process? Smooth Transitions, Nonlinear Trends and Unit Root Testing”, Empirical Economics, 41, 555-563.
- Çatık, A.N. (2020), “Electricity, Fossil Fuel Prices And Exchange Rate in Turkey”, Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 23(3), 60-77.
- Dahem, A. et al. (2017), “Time Varying VAR Analysis for Disaggregated Exchange Rate Pass-through in Tunisia”, MPRA Paper, No. 79759, Munich Personal RePEc Archive.
- De Sousa, J. et al. (2009), “Trade and the Spillovers of Transnational Terrorism”, Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, 145(4), 453-461.
- Eckstein, Z. & D. Tsiddon (2004), “Macroeconomic consequences of terror: theory and the case of Israel”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 51(5), 971-1002.
- Enders, W. et al. (2011), “Domestic versus transnational terrorism: data, decomposition, and Dynamics”, J. Peace Res, 48, 319-337.
- Enders, W. & T. Sandler (1996), “Terrorism and foreign direct investment in Spain and Greece”, Kyklos, 49(3), 331-352.
- Enders, W. et al. (1990), “Assessing the impact of terrorist-thwarting policies: an intervention time series approach”, Defence Economics, 2, 1-18.
- Estrada, M.A.R. et al. (2018), “The impact of terrorism on economic performance: The case of Turkey”, Economic Analysis and Policy, 60, 78-88.
- Estrada, M.A.R. et al. (2015), “The economic impact of terrorism: a new model and its application to Pakistan”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 37(6), 1065-1080.
- Feridun, M. & S. Sezgin (2008), “Regional Underdevelopment and Terrorism: The Case of South Eastern Turkey”, Defence and Peace Economics, 19(3), 225-233.
- Gaibulloev, K. & T. Sandler (2008), “The impact of terrorism and conflicts on growth in Asia, 1970-2004”, ADB Institute Discussion Paper, No. 113.
- Gaibulloev, K. & T. Sandler (2009), “The impact of terrorism and conflicts on growth in Asia”, Economics & Politics, 21(3), 359-383.
- Gaibulloev, K. & T. Sandler (2011), “The adverse effect of transnational and domestic terrorism on growth in Africa”, Journal of Peace Research, 48(3), 355-371.
- Gries, T. et al. (2011), “Causal linkages between domestic terrorism and economic growth”, Defence and Peace Economics, 22(5), 493-508.
- Gupta, S. et al. (2002) “Fiscal consequences of armed conflict and terrorism in low-and middle-income countries”, IMF Working Paper, WP/02/142, IMF Fiscal Affairs Department.
- Harvey, D.I. & S.J. Leybourne (2007), “Testing for Time Series Linearity”, Econometrics Journal, 10, 149-165.
- Harvey, D.I. et al. (2008), “A Powerful Test for Linearity When the Order of Integration is Unknown”, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 12(3), 1-22.
- Hoque, M.E. & M.A.S. Zaidi (2019), “The impacts of global economic policy uncertainty on stock market returns in regime switching environment: Evidence from sectoral perspectives”, International Journal of Finance & Economics, 24(2), 991-1016.
- IEP-GTI Institute for Economics and Peace-Global Terrorism Index (2020), Global Terrorism Index 2020: Measuring the Impact of Terrorism, <http://visionofhumanity.org/reports>, Sydney, 02.03.2022.
- Çimen, A. et al. (2016), “Terror Incidents and Economic Growth: The Case of Turkey”, Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 32, 1-14.
- Kapetanios, G. et al. (2003) “Testing for a Unit Root in the Nonlinear STAR Framework”, Journal of Econometrics, 112, 359-379.
- Khan, A. & Z. Yusof (2017), “Terrorist economic impact evaluation (TEIE) model: the case of Pakistan”, Quality & Quantity, 51(3), 1381-1394.
- Koh, W.T. (2007) “Terrorism and its impact on economic growth and technological innovation”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 74(2), 129-138.
- Kruse, R. (2011), “A new unit root test against ESTAR based on a class of modified statistics”, Statistical Papers, 52(1), 71-85.
- Lapan, H. & T. Sandler (1993), “Terrorism and signaling”, European Journal of Political Economy, 9, 383-397.
- Llussá, F. & J. Tavares (2011), “Which terror at which cost? On the economic consequences of terrorist attacks”, Economics Letters, 110(1), 52-55.
- Malik, Z. & K. Zaman (2013), “Macroeconomic consequences of terrorism in Pakistan”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 35(6), 1103-1123.
- Mehmood, S. (2014), “Terrorism and the macroeconomy: Evidence from Pakistan”, Defence and Peace Economics, 25(5), 509-534.
- Mehmood, S. & B. Mehmood (2016), “Hampering Effect of Terrorism on Investment: The South Asian Perspective”, Science International, 28(2), 1475-1479.
- Meierrieks, D. & T. Gries (2012), “Causality between terrorism and economic growth”, Journal of Peace Research, 50(1), 91-104.
- Meierrieks, D. & F. Schneider (2021), “Terrorism and international economic policy”, European Journal of Political Economy, 102011.
- Mubashra, S. (2018), “The impact of counter-terrorism effectiveness on economic growth of Pakistan: An Econometric Analysis”, MPRA Paper, No. 84847, Posted 01 Mar 2018 17:18 UTC.
- Nakajima, J. (2011), “Time-varying parameter VAR model with stochastic volatility: An overview of methodology and empirical applications”, Monetary and Economic Studies, 29, 107-142.
- Nasir, M. et al. (2008), “Terrorism and economic growth: a case study of Pakistan”, GCU Economic Journal, 41(2), 189-208.
- Nitsch, V. & D. Schumacher (2004), “Terrorism and international trade: an empirical investigation”, European Journal of Political Economy, 20(2), 423-433.
- Öcal, N. & J. Yildirim (2010), “Regional effects of terrorism on economic growth in Turkey: A geographically weighted regression approach”, Journal of Peace Research, 47(4), 477-489.
- Primiceri, G.E. (2005), “Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy”, The Review of Economic Studies, 72(3), 821-852.
- Procasky, W.J. & N.U. Ujah (2016), “Terrorism and its impact on the cost of debt”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 60, 253-266.
- Saleem, Q. et al. (2020), “Impact of Terrorism on Economic Growth in South Asian Country”, International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 10(4), 185-191.
- Sekrafi, H. et al. (2020), “The impact of terrorism on formal and informal economy in African countries”, International Journal of Finance & Economics, 26, 1163-1180.
- Sezgin, Ş. et al. (2008), “Güneydoğu Terör Olaylarının Ekonomik Sonuçları”, Akademik İncelemeler, 3(1), 1-17.
- Sezgin, Ş. & S. Sezgin (2018), “Ortadoğu Ülkelerinde Ticaret Hacmi ve Terör İlişkisi, Optimum Ekonomi ve Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi, 5(2), 205-223.
- Shahbaz, M. (2013), “Linkages between inflation, economic growth and terrorism in Pakistan”, Economic Modelling, 32, 496-506.
- Shahbaz, M. et al. (2013), “An analysis of a causal relationship between economic growth and terrorism in Pakistan”, Economic Modelling, 35, 21-29.
- Shahzad, S.J.H. et al. (2016), “Relationship between FDI, terrorism and economic growth in Pakistan: Pre and post 9/11 analysis”, Social Indicators Research, 127(1), 179-194.
- Şimşek, T. & Y. Özkaya (2018), “Türkiye'de Terörizm ve Temel Makroekonomik Göstergeler Arasındaki İlişki”, Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, 17(1), 246-269.
- Şit, M. & H. Karadağ (2019), “Ortadoğu’daki Terörün Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri: Panel Veri Analizi”, ITOBIAD: Journal of the Human & Social Science Researches, 8(2), 1313-29.
- Terasvirta, T. (1994), “Specification, Estimation, and Evaluation of Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 89(425), 208-218.
- Tsay, R.S. (1986), “Nonlinearity Tests for Time Series”, Biometrika, 73(2), 461-466.
- Zakaria, M. et al. (2019), “Effect of terrorism on economic growth in Pakistan: an empirical analysis”, Economic research-Ekonomska istraživanja, 32(1), 1794-1812.