Review
BibTex RIS Cite

Arazi Değişim Bilimi: Sahra Altı Afrika’daki savan ekosistemlerinde korunan alanları uzaktan algılama ile gözlemlemenin zorluklarını anlamak

Year 2023, Issue: 82, 63 - 76, 30.06.2023
https://doi.org/10.17211/tcd.1211634

Abstract

Bütünleşik bir insan-çevre sistemi olarak Arazi Değişim Bilimi (ADB), temel teorileri,
sorunları, metodolojileri ve model uygulamaları anlamak için arazi kullanımı ve arazi
örtüsünün dinamiklerini araştıran multidisipliner bir bilim dalıdır. Derleme şeklindeki
bu çalışma Sahra Altı Afrika’daki savan ekosistemi bölgelerinde bugüne kadar yapılmış
olan çalışmaları bir araya getirerek coğrafi bir perspektif çerçevesinde incelemektedir.
Yapılan çalışmada; (1) Sahra Altı Afrika’da, korunan alanların, bu alanların sınırlarındaki
insan yaşamı ve onların sosyo-ekonomik faaliyetlerin yanı sıra doğal çevre ve vahşi
yaşam üzerinde önemli ölçüde etkiye sahip olduğunun anlaşılmaktadır. (2) ADB alanında
uzaktan algılama (UZAL) teknolojisindeki yeni gelişmeler, arazi değişimi gözlemlerinin
yanı sıra ekoloji ve UZAL arasındaki ilişkiyi de etkilemektedir. (3) UZAL teknolojisi ekolojik
perspektif bilgimizi geliştirdiği gibi aynı zamanda birbiriyle ilişkili teknolojisi ekolojik
perspektif bilgimizi geliştirdiği gibi aynı zamanda birbiriyle ilişkili bilimsel disiplinlerle
bağlantı kurmak için yeni fırsatlar da yaratmıştır. (4) Savan bitki örtüsü, katmanlı ve
karmaşık yapısı nedeniyle diğer birçok ekosistemden çok daha kırılgandır. Bu nedenle,
değişen iklim koşulları ve çevresel değişimler nedeniyle özellikle Sahra Altı Afrika’da
ekosistemlerin yakın gelecekte çeşitli sorunlarla karşılaşması kaçınılmazdır. ADB’deki
yeni gelişmelere rağmen bu karmaşık ekosistemi anlamak araştırmacılar için bir zorluk
teşkil etmeye devam etmektedir. Dolayısıyla savan ekosistemlerinde sürdürülebilir bir
gelecek için doğal yaşam ve sosyo-ekonomik döngüyü daha iyi gözlemlemek ve anlamak
oldukça önemlidir.

Supporting Institution

Yok

Project Number

Yok

Thanks

Bu derleme çalışması esnasında her aşamada yardımlarını esirgemeyen başta doktora tez danışmanım Profesör Dr. Jane Southworth olmak üzere emeği geçen bütün meslektaşlarıma teşekkürü bir borç bilirim. Bu çalışma, doktora tezimin bir parçasının yeniden dizaynı niteliğinde olup çalışma için herhangi bir kişi, kurum veya kuruluştan maddi yardım alınmamıştır.

References

  • Adeel, Z. (2008). Findings of the Global Desertification Assessment by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment – A Perspective for Better Managing Scientific Knowledge. In C. Lee & T. Schaaf (Eds.), The Future of Drylands: International Scientific Conference on Desertification and Drylands Research Tunis, Tunisia, 19-21 June 2006 (pp. 677–685). Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-6970-3_57
  • Archer, S. (2009). Rangeland Conservation and Shrub Encroachment: New Perspectives on an Old Problem. In Wild Rangelands (pp. 53–97). John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. https://doi. org/10.1002/9781444317091.ch4
  • Archer, S., Schimel, D. S., & Holland, E. A. (1995). Mechanisms of shrubland expansion: land-use, climate, or CO2? Climatic Change, 29(1), 91–99. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01091640
  • Armitage, D.R., Plummer, R., Berkes, F., Arthur, R.I., Charles, A.T., Davidson- Hunt, I.J., Diduck, A.P., Doubleday, N.C., Johnson, D.S., Marschke, M. and McConney, P., & Wollenberg, E. K. (2009). Adaptive co‐management for social–ecological complexity. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 7(2), 95-102. https:// doi.org/10.1890/070089
  • Baker, W. L. (1989). A review of models of landscape change. Landscape Ecology, 2(2), 111–133. https://doi.org/10.1007/ BF00137155
  • Bardgett, R. D., Bullock, J. M., Lavorel, S., Manning, P., Schaffner, U., Ostle, N., & Shi, H. (2021). Combatting global grassland degradation. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 2(10), 720-735.
  • Biggs, H. C. (2003). The Kruger experience: ecology and management of savanna heterogeneity. Island Press.
  • Blaser, W. J., Shanungu, G. K., Edwards, P. J., & Olde Venterink, H. (2014). Woody encroachment reduces nutrient limitation and promotes soil carbon sequestration. Ecology and Evolution, 4(8), 1423–1438. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.1024 187
  • Bond, W. J. (2008). What Limits Trees in C4 Grasslands and Savannas? 39, 641–659. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.ecolsys. 39.110707.173411
  • Breiman, L. E. O. (2001). Random Forests. Machine Learning, (45), 5–32.
  • Brown, D., Pijanowski, B., & Duh, J. (2000). Modeling the relationships between land use and land cover on private lands in the Upper Midwest, USA. Journal of Environmental Management, 59(4), 247–263. https://doi.org/10.1006/jema.2000.0369
  • Bucini, G., & Hanan, N. P. (2007). A continental-scale analysis of tree cover in African savannas. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 16(5), 593–605. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466- 8238.2007.00325.x
  • Bucini, G., Hanan, N. P., Boone, R. B., Smit, I. P. J., Saatchi, S., Lefsky, M. A., & Asner, G. P. (2010). Woody fractional cover in Kruger National Park, South Africa: remote-sensing-based maps and ecological insights. Ecosystem Funcfion in Savannas: Measurement and Modelling at Landscape to Global Scales, 219–237.
  • Bucini, G., Saatchi, S., Hanan, N., Boone, R. B., & Smit, I. (2009). Woody Cover and Heterogeneity in the Savannas of the Kruger National Park, South Africa 1. Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, CO 80521 2. Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 9110, 334–337.
  • Bunting, E. L., Fullman, T., Kiker, G., & Southworth, J. (2016). Utilization of the SAVANNA model to analyze future patterns of vegetation cover in Kruger National Park under changing climate. Ecological Modelling, 342, 147–160. https://doi.org/http://dx. doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.09.012
  • Büscher, B. (2010). Seeking ‘telos’ in the ‘Transfrontier’? Neoliberalism and the transcending of community conservation in Southern Africa. Environment and Planning, 42(3), 644–660.
  • Campo-Bescós, A. M., Muñoz-Carpena, R., Southworth, J., Zhu, L., Waylen, R. P., & Bunting, E. (2013). Combined Spatial and Temporal Effects of Environmental Controls on Long-Term Monthly NDVI in the Southern Africa Savanna. Remote Sensing, 5(12). https://doi.org/10.3390/rs5126513
  • Chambers, J. Q., Asner, G. P., Morton, D. C., Anderson, L. O., Saatchi, S. S., Espírito-Santo, F. D. B., Palace, M., & Souza, C. (2007). Regional ecosystem structure and function: ecological insights from remote sensing of tropical forests. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 22(8), 414–23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2007.05.001
  • Cheong, S.-M., Brown, D. G., Kok, K., & Lopez-Carr, D. (2012). Mixed methods in land change research: towards integration. Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, 37(1), 8–12. https:// doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-5661.2011.00482.x
  • Child, B. (2009). The emergence of parks and conservation narratives in southern Africa. In Evolution and innovation in wildlife conservation (pp. 19–34). Parks and game ranches to Transfrontier conservation areas.
  • Child, B., Castley, G., Knight, M., Gordon, J., Daitz, D., Johnson, S., Boonzaaier, W., Collinson, R., Davies, R., Grossman, D. & Holden, P. (2004). Innovations in park management. In Parks in Transition: Biodiversity, Rural Development, and the Bottom LineInnovation in park management (pp. 165–88).
  • Cho, M.A., Mathieu, R., Asner, G.P., Naidoo, L., Van Aardt, J.A.N., Ramoelo, A., Debba, P., Wessels, K., Main, R., Smit, I.P., & Erasmus, B. (2012). Mapping tree species composition in South African savannas using an integrated airborne spectral and LiDAR system. Remote Sensing of Environment, 125, 214–226. https:// doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2012.07.010
  • Cui, X., Gibbes, C., Southworth, J., & Waylen, P. (2013). Using Remote Sensing to Quantify Vegetation Change and Ecological Resilience in a Semi-Arid System. Land, 2(2). https://doi.org/10.3390/ land2020108 189
  • Cutler, D. R., Edwards, T. C., Beard, K. H., Cutler, A., Hess, K. T., Gibson, J., & Lawler, J. J. (2007). Random forests for classification in ecology. Ecology, 88(11), 2783–92.
  • DeFries, R., Hansen, A., Turner, B. L., Reid, R., & Liu, J. (2007). landuse change around protected areas: management to balance human needs and ecological function. Ecological Applications: A Publication of the Ecological Society of America, 17(4), 1031–8.
  • DeFries, R., Karanth, K. K., & Pareeth, S. (2010). Interactions between protected areas and their surroundings in human-dominated tropical landscapes. Biological Conservation, 143(12), 2870– 2880. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2010.02.010
  • Dowsett, R. J. (1966). Wet Season Game Populations and Biomes in the Ngoma Area of the Kafue National Park. Puku, 4, 136–137. Eckhardt, H. C., van Wilgen, B. W., & Biggs, H. C. (2000). Trends in woody vegetation cover in the Kruger National Park, South Africa, between 1940 and 1998. African Journal of Ecology, 38(2), 108–115. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2028.2000.00217.x
  • Eldridge, D. J., Bowker, M. A., Maestre, F. T., Roger, E., Reynolds, J. F., & Whitford, W. G. (2011). Impacts of shrub encroachment on ecosystem structure and functioning: towards a global synthesis. Ecology Letters, 14(7), 709–722. https://doi.org/10.1111/ j.1461-0248.2011.01630.x
  • Friedl, M.A., Gray, J.M., Melaas, E.K., Richardson, A.D., Hufkens, K., Keenan, T.F., Bailey, A. & O’Keefe, J. (2014). A tale of two springs: using recent climate anomalies to characterize the sensitivity of temperate forest phenology to climate change. Environmental Research Letters, 9(5), 054006.
  • Fullman, T. J., & Child, B. (2013). Water distribution at local and landscape scales affects tree utilization by elephants in Chobe National Park, Botswana. African Journal of Ecology, 51(2), 235– 243. https://doi.org/10.1111/aje.12026
  • Fullman, T. J., Bunting, E. L., Kiker, G. A., & Southworth, J. (2017). Predicting shifts in large herbivore distributions under climate change and management using a spatially explicit ecosystem model. Ecological Modelling, 352, 1–18. https://doi.org/http:// dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.02.030 190
  • Geist, H. J. (1999). Global assessment of deforestation related to tobacco farming. Tobacco Control, 8(1), 18. https://doi. org/10.1136/tc.8.1.18
  • Gibbes, C., Southworth, J., Waylen, P., & Child, B. (2014). Climate variability as a dominant driver of post-disturbance savanna dynamics. Applied Geography, 53, 389–401. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. apgeog.2014.06.024
  • GLTFCA. (2016). Great Limpopo Transfrontier Conservation Area: Integrated livelihoods diversification strategy, 2016–2030.
  • Goudie, A. S. (2018). Human impact on the natural environment. Ed. 8. John Wiley & Sons.
  • Hansen, & DeFries, R. (2007). Ecological Mechanisms Linking Protected Areas to the Surrounding Lands. Ecological Applications, 17(4), 974–988.
  • Hansen, M.C., Potapov, P.V., Moore, R., Hancher, M., Turubanova, S.A., Tyukavina, A., Thau, D., Stehman, S.V., Goetz, S.J., Loveland, T.R. and Kommareddy, A., … & Townshend, J. R. G. (2013). High-resolution global maps of 21st-century forest cover change. Science (New York, N.Y.), 342(6160), 850–3. https://doi. org/10.1126/science.1244693
  • Hill, M.J., Zhou, Q., Sun, Q., Schaaf, C.B., Southworth, J., Mishra, N.B., Gibbes, C., Bunting, E., Christiansen, T.B. & Crews, K.A. (2016). Dynamics of the relationship between NDVI and SWIR32 vegetation indices in southern Africa: implications for retrieval of fractional cover from MODIS data. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 37(6), 1476–1503. https://doi.org/10.1080/0143 1161.2016.1154225
  • Hirota, M., Holmgren, M., Van Nes, E. H., & Scheffer, M. (2011). Global Resilience of Tropical Forest and Savanna to Critical Transitions. Science, 334(6053), 232. https://doi.org/10.1126/science. 1210657 Hoell, A., Funk, C., Magadzire, T., Zinke, J., & Husak, G. (2015). El Niño–Southern Oscillation diversity and Southern Africa teleconnections during Austral Summer. Climate Dynamics, 45(5), 1583–1599. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2414-z
  • Hsu, D., Kakade, S. M., & Zhang, T. (2008). A Spectral Algorithm for Learning Hidden Markov Models. CoRR, abs/0811.4413. Retrieved from http://arxiv.org/abs/0811.4413 191
  • Hyandye, C., & Martz, L. W. (2017). A Markovian and Cellular Automata Land-use Change Predictive Model of the Usangu Catchment. Int. J. Remote Sens., 38(1), 64–81. https://doi.org/10.108 0/01431161.2016.1259675
  • Jacquin, A., Sheeren, D., & Lacombe, J. P. (2010). Vegetation cover degradation assessment in Madagascar savanna based on trend analysis of MODIS NDVI time series. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 12, S3-S10.
  • Joppa, L. N., Loarie, S. R., & Pimm, S. L. (2009). On Population Growth Near Protected Areas. PLoS ONE, 4(1), e4279. https:// doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0004279
  • Kamusoko, C., Aniya, M., Adi, B., & Manjoro, M. (2009). Rural sustainability under threat in Zimbabwe – Simulation of future land-use/cover changes in the Bindura district based on the Markov-cellular automata model. Applied Geography, 29(3), 435–447. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog. 2008.10.002
  • Kiker, G., Scholtz, R., Smith, I., & Venter, F. J. (2014). Exploring an extensive dataset to establish woody vegetation cover and composition in Kruger National Park for the late 1980s. Koedoe, 56(1), 10. https://doi.org/10.4102/koedoe.v56i1.1200
  • Knapp, A.K., Briggs, J.M., Collins, S.L., Archer, S.R., BRET‐HARTE, M.S., Ewers, B.E., Peters, D.P., Young, D.R., Shaver, G.R., Pendall, E. & Cleary, M.B. (2008). Shrub encroachment in North American grasslands: shifts in growth form dominance rapidly alters control of ecosystem carbon inputs. Global Change Biology, 14(3), 615–623. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01512.x
  • Kumar, S., Radhakrishnan, N., & Mathew, S. (2014). land-use change modelling using a Markov model and remote sensing. Geomatics, Natural Hazards, and Risk, 5(2), 145–156. https://doi.org/1 0.1080/19475705.2013.795502
  • Lambin, E.F., Turner, B.L., Geist, H.J., Agbola, S.B., Angelsen, A., Bruce, J.W., Coomes, O.T., Dirzo, R., Fischer, G., Folke, C. & George, P. (2001). The causes of land-use and land-cover change: moving beyond the myths. Global environmental change, 11(4), 261- 269. Ellenbroek, G. A. (2012). Ecology and productivity of an African wetland system: the Kafue Flats, Zambia (Vol. 9). Springer Science & Business Media.
  • Lindsey, P.A., Nyirenda, V.R., Barnes, J.I., Becker, M.S., McRobb, R., Tambling, C.J., Taylor, W.A., Watson, F.G. & t’Sas-Rolfes, M. (2014). Underperformance of African Protected Area Networks and the Case for New Conservation Models: Insights from Zambia. PLoS ONE, 9(5), e94109. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal. pone.0094109
  • Lunstrum, E. (2010). Reconstructing history, grounding claims to space history, memory, and displacement in the Great Limpopo Transfrontier Park. South African Geographical Journal, 92(2), 129–143.
  • Maestre, F. T., & Cortina, J. (2005). Remnant shrubs in Mediterranean semi-arid steppes: effects of shrub size, abiotic factors and species identity on understorey richness and occurrence. Acta Oecologica, 27(3), 161–169. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actao. 2004.11.003 192
  • Midlane, N. (2013). The conservation status and dynamics of a protected African lion Panthera leo population in Kafue National Park, Zambia. University of Cape Town, South Africa. Moleele, N. M., Ringrose, S., Matheson, W., & Vanderpost, C. (2002). More woody plants? the status of bush encroachment in Botswana’s grazing areas. Journal of Environmental Management, 64(1), 3–11. https://doi.org/10.1006/jema.2001.0486
  • Mondal, P., & Southworth, J. (2010). Protection vs. commercial management: Spatial and temporal analysis of land-cover changes in the tropical forests of Central India. Forest Ecology and Management, 259(5), 1009–1017. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco. 2009.12.007
  • Munyati, C., & Ratshibvumo, T. (2010). Differentiating geological fertility derived vegetation zones in Kruger National Park, South Africa, using Landsat and MODIS imagery. Journal for Nature Conservation, 18(3), 169–179. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. jnc.2009.08.001
  • Mwima, H. K. (2001). A Brief History of Kafue National Park, Zambia.” Koedoe 44.1 (2001): 57-72. Koedoe, 44(1), 57–72.
  • Olsson, P., Folke, C., Galaz, V., Hahn, T., & Schultz, L. (2007). Enhancing the fit through adaptive co-management: creating and maintaining bridging functions for matching scales in the Kristianstads Vattenrike Biosphere Reserve, Sweden. Ecology and society, 12(1).
  • Ozdes, M. (2017). Savanna Vegetation Change in Protected Areas of Southern Africa, (Dissertation). University of Florida. http:// www.secheresse.info/spip.php?article115233
  • Ozdes, M. (2023a). Küresel İklim Değişikliği ve Çevresel Değişimlerin Etkisi Altında Arazi Değişim Biliminin Ortaya Çıkışı: Kurak ve Yarı Kurak Ekosistemlerde Arazi Değişimi. DOI: 10.13140/ RG.2.2.16175.30887
  • Ozdes, M. (2023b). The Good, the Bad and the Ugly side of Artificial Intelligence: Assessing the Potential, Capabilities, Limitations, and Ethical Concerns for the use of AI in Land Change Science. (Preprint). DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.28923.69926
  • Özdeş, M., Özşahin, E., & Eroğlu, E. (2019). Corine arazi sınıflandırmasına göre Trakya Yarımadası arazi örtüsü/kullanımı özelliklerinin yeniden değerlendirilmesi. İstanbul: İstanbul Uluslararası Coğrafya Sempozyumu Bildiriler Kitabı, 679, 686. DOI: 10.26650/ PB/PS12.2019.002.066
  • Ozsahin, E., & Ozdes, M. (2022a). Determining the impact of climate change on land suitability for rice paddy cultivation using GIS and RS on FAO maximum limitation approach. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 1-16. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704- 022-04033-4
  • Ozsahin, E., & Ozdes, M. (2022b). Agricultural land suitability assessment for agricultural productivity based on GIS modeling and multi-criteria decision analysis: the case of Tekirdağ province. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 194(1), 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-021-09663-1
  • Ozsahin, E., Alturk, B., Ozdes, M., Sari, H., & Eroglu, I. (2022a). GISbased spatial prediction of poor-drainage areas using frequency ratio: a case study of Tekirdag Province, Turkey. Applied Geomatics, 14(2), 369-386. DOI: 10.1007/s12518-022-00439-x
  • Ozsahin, E., Ozdes, M., Smith, A. C., & Yang, D. (2022c). Remote Sensing and GIS-Based Suitability Mapping of Termite Habitat in the African Savanna: A Case Study of the Lowveld in Kruger National Park. Land, 11(6), 803. https://doi.org/10.3390/land11060803
  • Ozsahin, E., Sari, H., Ozdes, M., Eroglu, I., & Yuksel, O. (2022b). Determination of suitable lands for rice cultivation in Edirne plain: GIS supported FAO limitation method. Paddy and Water Environment, 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10333-022-00895-6
  • Özşahin, E., Özdeş, M., Eroğlu İ. (2019) TR21 Trakya Bölgesi’nde İklim Değişikliğinin Ekonomik Sektörler Üzerine Olası Etkileri. (Editörler) Konukçu F, Albut S, Altürk B. TR21 Trakya Bölgesinde İklim Değişikliğinin Etkileri ve Uyum Stratejileri, 1. baskı. Tekirdağ Namık Kemal Üniversitesi Yayınları, Tekirdağ, pp 169–177. https://www.iklimin.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Bo%CC% 88lu%CC%88m0_Giris%CC%A7.pdf
  • Pacala, S.W., Hurtt, G.C., Baker, D., Peylin, P., Houghton, R.A., Birdsey, R.A., Heath, L., Sundquist, E.T., Stallard, R.F., Ciais, P. & Moorcroft, P. (2001). Consistent Land- and Atmosphere-Based U.S. Carbon Sink Estimates. Science, 292(5525), 23162320. https:// doi.org/10.1126/science.1057320
  • Petit, C., Scudder, T., & Lambin, E. (2001). Quantifying processes of land-cover change by remote sensing: Resettlement and rapid land-cover changes in south-eastern Zambia. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 22(17), 3435–3456. https://doi. org/10.1080/01431160010006881
  • Pontius, R. G., Huffaker, D., & Denman, K. (2004). Useful techniques of validation for spatially explicit land-change models, 179, 445– 461. 193. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2004.05.010
  • Potapov, P., Hansen, M.C., Pickens, A., Hernandez-Serna, A., Tyukavina, A., Turubanova, S., Zalles, V., Li, X., Khan, A., Stolle, F., Harris, N., Song, X-P., Baggett, A., Kommareddy, I., and Kommareddy, A. (2022). The Global 2000-2020 Land Cover and Land Use Change Dataset Derived From the Landsat Archive: First Results. Frontiers in Remote Sensing, 13, April 2022. https://doi.org/10.3389/ frsen.2022.856903
  • Prasad, A. M., Iverson, L. R., & Liaw, A. (2006). Newer Classification and Regression Tree Techniques: Bagging and Random Forests for Ecological Prediction. Ecosystems, 9(2), 181–199. https:// doi.org/10.1007/s10021-005-0054-1
  • Rduch, V. (2016). Population characteristics and coexistence of puku (Kobus vardonii) and impala (Aepyceros melampus) in and around Kafue National Park, Zambia. Mammalian Biology- Zeitschrift Für Säugetierkunde, 81(4), 350–360.
  • Richardson, R. B., Fernandez, A., Tschirley, D., & Tembo, G. (2012). Wildlife Conservation in Zambia: Impacts on Rural Household Welfare. World Development, 40(5), 1068–1081. https://doi. org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2011.09.019
  • Rindfuss, R. R., Walsh, S. J., Turner, B. L., Fox, J., & Mishra, V. (2004). Developing a science of land change: challenges and methodological issues. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 101(39), 13976–81. https://doi. org/10.1073/pnas.0401545101
  • Rodriguez-Galiano, V. F., Ghimire, B., Rogan, J., Chica-Olmo, M., & Rigol-Sanchez, J. P. (2012). An assessment of the effectiveness of a random forest classifier for land-cover classification. ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, 67, 93–104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2011.11.002
  • Rounsevell, M. D., Pedroli, B., Erb, K. H., Gramberger, M., Busck, A. G., Haberl, H., Metzger, M.J., Murray-Rust, D., Popp, A., Pérez-Soba, M., Reenberg, A., Vadineanu, A., Verburg, P. H., ... & Wolfslehner, B. (2012). Challenges for land system science. Land use policy, 29(4), 899-910. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol. 2012.01.007
  • Sankaran, M., & Anderson, T. M. (2009). Management and restoration in African Savannas: Interactions and feedbacks & Kate Suding (eds). In New Models for Ecosystem Dynamics and Restoration (pp. 136–155). Island Press.
  • Sankaran, M., Hanan, N.P., Scholes, R.J., Ratnam, J., Augustine, D.J., Cade, B.S., Gignoux, J., Higgins, S.I., Le Roux, X., Ludwig, F. and Ardo, J., Banyikwa, F., Bronn, A., Bucini, G., Caylor, K.K., Coughenour, M.B., Diouf, A., Ekaya, A., … Zambatis, N. (2005). Determinants of woody cover in African savannas. Nature, 438(7069), 846–9. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04070
  • Sankaran, M., Ratnam, J., & Hanan, N. (2008). Woody cover in African savannas: the role of resources, fire, and herbivory. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 17(2), 236–245. https://doi. org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2007.00360.x
  • Scholes, R. J., & Walker, B. H. (1993). An African savanna: synthesis of the Nylsvley study. Cambridge University Press.
  • Shikolokolo, H. P. (2010). An evaluation of the impact of Kruger National Park’s development programme on the Hlanganani community in Limpopo (Doctoral dissertation).
  • Simasiku, P., Simwanza, H., Tembo, G., Bandyopadhya, S., & Pavy, J. (2008). The impact of wildlife management policies on communities and conservation in game management areas in Zambia. Natural Resources Consultative Forum. 194
  • Smit, I. P. J., & Asner, G. P. (2012). Roads increase woody cover under varying geological, rainfall and fire regimes in African savanna. Journal of Arid Environments, 80, 74–80. https://doi. org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2011.11.026
  • Soulard, C., M. Albano, C., Villarreal, M., & Walker, J. (2016). Continuous 1985–2012 Landsat Monitoring to Assess Fire Effects on Meadows in Yosemite National Park, California (Vol. 8). https:// doi.org/10.3390/rs8050371
  • Southworth, J., & Gibbes, C. (2010). Digital Remote Sensing within the Field of Land Change Science: Past, Present and Future Directions. Geography Compass, 4(12), 1695–1712. https://doi. org/10.1111/j.1749-8198.2010.00401.x
  • Southworth, J., & Muir, C., (2021). Specialty Grand Challenge: Remote Sensing Time Series Analysis. Frontiers in Remote Sensing, 2. https://doi.org/10.3389/frsen.2021.770431
  • Southworth, J., Munroe, D., & Nagendra, H. (2004). land-cover change and landscape fragmentation—comparing the utility of continuous and discrete analyses for a western Honduras region. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 101(2–3), 185– 205. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2003.09.011
  • Southworth, J., Zhu, L., Bunting, E., Ryan, S. J., Herrero, H., Waylen, P. R., & Hill, M. J. (2016). Changes in vegetation persistence across global savanna landscapes, 1982–2010. Journal of land-use Science, 11(1), 7–32. https://doi.org/10.1080/174742 3X.2015.1071439
  • Strobl, C. (2010). An Introduction to Recursive Partitioning: Rational, Application, and Characteristics of Classification and Regression Trees, Bagging, and Random Forests. Nih Public Access, 14(4), 323–348. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0016973.An
  • Takada, T., Miyamoto, A., and Hasegawa, S.F., (2010) Derivation of a yearly transition probability matrix for land-use dynamics and its applications, Landscape Ecology, 25, 561–572.
  • Trollope, W. S. W., Trollope, L. A., Biggs, H. C., Pienaar, D., & Potgieter, A. L. F. (1998). Long-term changes in the woody vegetation of the Kruger National Park, with special reference to the effects of elephants and fire. Koedoe; Vol 41, No 2 (1998). Retrieved from http://koedoe.co.za/index.php/koedoe/article/view/255
  • Turner, B. L. (2002). Toward integrated land-change science: Advances in 1.5 decades of sustained international research on landuse and land-cover change. In Challenges of a changing earth (pp. 21-26). Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg.
  • Turner, B. L., & Robbins, P. (2008). Land-Change Science and Political Ecology: Similarities, Differences, and Implications for Sustainability Science. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 33(1), 295–316. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.environ. 33.022207.104943 195
  • Turner, B. L., Lambin, E. F., & Renenber, A. (2007). The emergence of land change science for global environmental change and sustainability, 104(52), 20666–20671.
  • Van Auken, O. W. (2009). Causes and consequences of woody plant encroachment into western North American grasslands. Journal of Environmental Management, 90(10), 2931–2942. https://doi. org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2009.04.023
  • van Wilgen, B. W., & Biggs, H. C. (2011). A critical assessment of adaptive ecosystem management in a large savanna protected area in South Africa. Biological Conservation, 144(4), 1179– 1187. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2010.05.006
  • van Wilgen, B. W., Govender, N., & MacFadyen, S. (2008). An assessment of the implementation and outcomes of recent changes to fire management in the Kruger National Park. Koedoe; Vol 50, No 1 (2008). Retrieved from http://www.koedoe.co.za/index. php/koedoe/article/view/135
  • Van‘t Veen, H., Eppinga, M. B., Mwampamba, T. H., & Dos Santos, M. J. F. (2021). Long term impacts of transitions in charcoal production systems in tropical biomes. Environmental Research Letters, 16(3), 034009.
  • Venter, F. J. (1992). A classification of land for management planning in the Kruger National Park (Doctoral dissertation, University of South Africa).
  • Venter, F. J., Naiman, R. J., Biggs, H. C., & Pienaar, D. J. (2008). The Evolution of Conservation Management Philosophy: Science, Environmental Change and Social Adjustments in Kruger National Park. Ecosystems, 11(2), 173–192. https://doi.org/10.1007/ s10021-007-9116-x
  • Vinya, R., Syampungani, S., Kasumu, E. C., Monde, C., & Kasubika. (2011). Preliminary study on the drivers of deforestation & potential for REDD+ in Zambia. Lusaka, Zambia: A consultancy report prepared for Forestry Department and FAO under the national UN-REDD+ Programme Ministry of Lands & Natural Resources.
  • Walker, B. H., & Noy-Meir, I. (1982). Aspects of the Stability and Resilience of Savanna Ecosystems. In B. J. Huntley & B. H. Walker (Eds.), Ecology of Tropical Savannas (pp. 556–590). Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg. https://doi. org/10.1007/978-3-642-68786-0_26
  • Walker, B. H., Ludwig, D., Holling, C. S., & Peterman, R. M. (1981). Stability of Semi-Arid Savanna Grazing Systems. Journal of Ecology, 69(2), 473–498. https://doi.org/10.2307/2259679
  • Walter, H., 1954. Die Verbuschung: eine Erscheinung der subtropischen Savannengebiete und ihre ökologische Ursachen. Vegetatio 5/6: 6–10.
  • Watson, F. G. R., Becker, M. S., Milanzi, J., & Nyirenda, M. (2015). Human encroachment into protected area networks in Zambia: implications for large carnivore conservation. Regional Environmental Change, 15(2), 415–429. https://doi.org/10.1007/ s10113-014-0629-5 196
  • Wessels, K.J., Mathieu, R., Erasmus, B.F.N., Asner, G.P., Smit, I.P.J., Van Aardt, J.A.N., Main, R., Fisher, J., Marais, W., Kennedy-Bowdoin, T., & Knapp, D.E. (2011). Impact of communal land-use and conservation on woody vegetation structure in the Lowveld savannas of South Africa. Forest Ecology and Management, 261(1), 19–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2010.09.012
  • Wessels, K. J., Prince, S. D., Zambatis, N., MacFadyen, S., Frost, P. E., & Van Zyl, D. (2006). Relationship between herbaceous biomass and 1‐km 2 Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) NDVI in Kruger National Park, South Africa. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 27(5), 951–973. https://doi. org/10.1080/01431160500169098
  • Westoby, M., Walker, B., & Noy-Meir, I. (1989). Opportunistic management for rangelands not at equilibrium. Rangeland Ecology & Management/Journal of Range Management Archives, 42(4), 266-274.
  • Wittemyer, G., Elsen, P., Bean, W. T., Burton, A. C. O., & Brashares, J. S. (2008). Accelerated Human Population Growth at Protected Area Edges. Science, 321(5885), 123–126. https://doi. org/10.1126/science.1158900
  • ZAWA. (2010). Kafue National Park General Implementation Project (2012-2016) (GMP) (p. 138).

Land Change Science: Understanding the complexity of monitoring protected areas in savanna ecosystems of Sub-Saharan Africa

Year 2023, Issue: 82, 63 - 76, 30.06.2023
https://doi.org/10.17211/tcd.1211634

Abstract

Land Change Science (LCS), as a coupled human-environment system, is a multidisciplinary
area that explores the dynamics of land use and land cover to understand key
theories, problems, methodologies, and model applications. The present review integrated
the research that have been conducted in the savanna ecosystem of Sub-Saharan
Africa from a geographical perspective. The present study elaborates contemporary issues
and thoughts in terms of several key aspects: (1) Impacts of protected areas on the
surrounding natural environment, wildlife, and socio-economic activities of humans, (2)
with the impact of new developments in remote sensing (RS) technology, observations
of land change and the changes in the relationship between ecology and RS, (3) the
effects of developments in RS on our environmental perspective and new connection
opportunities for interrelated scientific disciplines, (4) the vulnerability of the savanna
vegetation due to its multilayered and complex structure. Due to the changing climatic
conditions, it is inevitable that ecosystems will encounter various problems in the near
future, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. Understanding the complex savanna ecosystem
remains a challenge for researchers. Therefore, it is very essential to observe better and
understand the nature and socio-economic cycle of human for a sustainable future of
savanna ecosystems.

Project Number

Yok

References

  • Adeel, Z. (2008). Findings of the Global Desertification Assessment by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment – A Perspective for Better Managing Scientific Knowledge. In C. Lee & T. Schaaf (Eds.), The Future of Drylands: International Scientific Conference on Desertification and Drylands Research Tunis, Tunisia, 19-21 June 2006 (pp. 677–685). Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-6970-3_57
  • Archer, S. (2009). Rangeland Conservation and Shrub Encroachment: New Perspectives on an Old Problem. In Wild Rangelands (pp. 53–97). John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. https://doi. org/10.1002/9781444317091.ch4
  • Archer, S., Schimel, D. S., & Holland, E. A. (1995). Mechanisms of shrubland expansion: land-use, climate, or CO2? Climatic Change, 29(1), 91–99. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01091640
  • Armitage, D.R., Plummer, R., Berkes, F., Arthur, R.I., Charles, A.T., Davidson- Hunt, I.J., Diduck, A.P., Doubleday, N.C., Johnson, D.S., Marschke, M. and McConney, P., & Wollenberg, E. K. (2009). Adaptive co‐management for social–ecological complexity. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 7(2), 95-102. https:// doi.org/10.1890/070089
  • Baker, W. L. (1989). A review of models of landscape change. Landscape Ecology, 2(2), 111–133. https://doi.org/10.1007/ BF00137155
  • Bardgett, R. D., Bullock, J. M., Lavorel, S., Manning, P., Schaffner, U., Ostle, N., & Shi, H. (2021). Combatting global grassland degradation. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 2(10), 720-735.
  • Biggs, H. C. (2003). The Kruger experience: ecology and management of savanna heterogeneity. Island Press.
  • Blaser, W. J., Shanungu, G. K., Edwards, P. J., & Olde Venterink, H. (2014). Woody encroachment reduces nutrient limitation and promotes soil carbon sequestration. Ecology and Evolution, 4(8), 1423–1438. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.1024 187
  • Bond, W. J. (2008). What Limits Trees in C4 Grasslands and Savannas? 39, 641–659. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.ecolsys. 39.110707.173411
  • Breiman, L. E. O. (2001). Random Forests. Machine Learning, (45), 5–32.
  • Brown, D., Pijanowski, B., & Duh, J. (2000). Modeling the relationships between land use and land cover on private lands in the Upper Midwest, USA. Journal of Environmental Management, 59(4), 247–263. https://doi.org/10.1006/jema.2000.0369
  • Bucini, G., & Hanan, N. P. (2007). A continental-scale analysis of tree cover in African savannas. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 16(5), 593–605. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466- 8238.2007.00325.x
  • Bucini, G., Hanan, N. P., Boone, R. B., Smit, I. P. J., Saatchi, S., Lefsky, M. A., & Asner, G. P. (2010). Woody fractional cover in Kruger National Park, South Africa: remote-sensing-based maps and ecological insights. Ecosystem Funcfion in Savannas: Measurement and Modelling at Landscape to Global Scales, 219–237.
  • Bucini, G., Saatchi, S., Hanan, N., Boone, R. B., & Smit, I. (2009). Woody Cover and Heterogeneity in the Savannas of the Kruger National Park, South Africa 1. Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, CO 80521 2. Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 9110, 334–337.
  • Bunting, E. L., Fullman, T., Kiker, G., & Southworth, J. (2016). Utilization of the SAVANNA model to analyze future patterns of vegetation cover in Kruger National Park under changing climate. Ecological Modelling, 342, 147–160. https://doi.org/http://dx. doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.09.012
  • Büscher, B. (2010). Seeking ‘telos’ in the ‘Transfrontier’? Neoliberalism and the transcending of community conservation in Southern Africa. Environment and Planning, 42(3), 644–660.
  • Campo-Bescós, A. M., Muñoz-Carpena, R., Southworth, J., Zhu, L., Waylen, R. P., & Bunting, E. (2013). Combined Spatial and Temporal Effects of Environmental Controls on Long-Term Monthly NDVI in the Southern Africa Savanna. Remote Sensing, 5(12). https://doi.org/10.3390/rs5126513
  • Chambers, J. Q., Asner, G. P., Morton, D. C., Anderson, L. O., Saatchi, S. S., Espírito-Santo, F. D. B., Palace, M., & Souza, C. (2007). Regional ecosystem structure and function: ecological insights from remote sensing of tropical forests. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 22(8), 414–23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2007.05.001
  • Cheong, S.-M., Brown, D. G., Kok, K., & Lopez-Carr, D. (2012). Mixed methods in land change research: towards integration. Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, 37(1), 8–12. https:// doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-5661.2011.00482.x
  • Child, B. (2009). The emergence of parks and conservation narratives in southern Africa. In Evolution and innovation in wildlife conservation (pp. 19–34). Parks and game ranches to Transfrontier conservation areas.
  • Child, B., Castley, G., Knight, M., Gordon, J., Daitz, D., Johnson, S., Boonzaaier, W., Collinson, R., Davies, R., Grossman, D. & Holden, P. (2004). Innovations in park management. In Parks in Transition: Biodiversity, Rural Development, and the Bottom LineInnovation in park management (pp. 165–88).
  • Cho, M.A., Mathieu, R., Asner, G.P., Naidoo, L., Van Aardt, J.A.N., Ramoelo, A., Debba, P., Wessels, K., Main, R., Smit, I.P., & Erasmus, B. (2012). Mapping tree species composition in South African savannas using an integrated airborne spectral and LiDAR system. Remote Sensing of Environment, 125, 214–226. https:// doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2012.07.010
  • Cui, X., Gibbes, C., Southworth, J., & Waylen, P. (2013). Using Remote Sensing to Quantify Vegetation Change and Ecological Resilience in a Semi-Arid System. Land, 2(2). https://doi.org/10.3390/ land2020108 189
  • Cutler, D. R., Edwards, T. C., Beard, K. H., Cutler, A., Hess, K. T., Gibson, J., & Lawler, J. J. (2007). Random forests for classification in ecology. Ecology, 88(11), 2783–92.
  • DeFries, R., Hansen, A., Turner, B. L., Reid, R., & Liu, J. (2007). landuse change around protected areas: management to balance human needs and ecological function. Ecological Applications: A Publication of the Ecological Society of America, 17(4), 1031–8.
  • DeFries, R., Karanth, K. K., & Pareeth, S. (2010). Interactions between protected areas and their surroundings in human-dominated tropical landscapes. Biological Conservation, 143(12), 2870– 2880. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2010.02.010
  • Dowsett, R. J. (1966). Wet Season Game Populations and Biomes in the Ngoma Area of the Kafue National Park. Puku, 4, 136–137. Eckhardt, H. C., van Wilgen, B. W., & Biggs, H. C. (2000). Trends in woody vegetation cover in the Kruger National Park, South Africa, between 1940 and 1998. African Journal of Ecology, 38(2), 108–115. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2028.2000.00217.x
  • Eldridge, D. J., Bowker, M. A., Maestre, F. T., Roger, E., Reynolds, J. F., & Whitford, W. G. (2011). Impacts of shrub encroachment on ecosystem structure and functioning: towards a global synthesis. Ecology Letters, 14(7), 709–722. https://doi.org/10.1111/ j.1461-0248.2011.01630.x
  • Friedl, M.A., Gray, J.M., Melaas, E.K., Richardson, A.D., Hufkens, K., Keenan, T.F., Bailey, A. & O’Keefe, J. (2014). A tale of two springs: using recent climate anomalies to characterize the sensitivity of temperate forest phenology to climate change. Environmental Research Letters, 9(5), 054006.
  • Fullman, T. J., & Child, B. (2013). Water distribution at local and landscape scales affects tree utilization by elephants in Chobe National Park, Botswana. African Journal of Ecology, 51(2), 235– 243. https://doi.org/10.1111/aje.12026
  • Fullman, T. J., Bunting, E. L., Kiker, G. A., & Southworth, J. (2017). Predicting shifts in large herbivore distributions under climate change and management using a spatially explicit ecosystem model. Ecological Modelling, 352, 1–18. https://doi.org/http:// dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.02.030 190
  • Geist, H. J. (1999). Global assessment of deforestation related to tobacco farming. Tobacco Control, 8(1), 18. https://doi. org/10.1136/tc.8.1.18
  • Gibbes, C., Southworth, J., Waylen, P., & Child, B. (2014). Climate variability as a dominant driver of post-disturbance savanna dynamics. Applied Geography, 53, 389–401. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. apgeog.2014.06.024
  • GLTFCA. (2016). Great Limpopo Transfrontier Conservation Area: Integrated livelihoods diversification strategy, 2016–2030.
  • Goudie, A. S. (2018). Human impact on the natural environment. Ed. 8. John Wiley & Sons.
  • Hansen, & DeFries, R. (2007). Ecological Mechanisms Linking Protected Areas to the Surrounding Lands. Ecological Applications, 17(4), 974–988.
  • Hansen, M.C., Potapov, P.V., Moore, R., Hancher, M., Turubanova, S.A., Tyukavina, A., Thau, D., Stehman, S.V., Goetz, S.J., Loveland, T.R. and Kommareddy, A., … & Townshend, J. R. G. (2013). High-resolution global maps of 21st-century forest cover change. Science (New York, N.Y.), 342(6160), 850–3. https://doi. org/10.1126/science.1244693
  • Hill, M.J., Zhou, Q., Sun, Q., Schaaf, C.B., Southworth, J., Mishra, N.B., Gibbes, C., Bunting, E., Christiansen, T.B. & Crews, K.A. (2016). Dynamics of the relationship between NDVI and SWIR32 vegetation indices in southern Africa: implications for retrieval of fractional cover from MODIS data. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 37(6), 1476–1503. https://doi.org/10.1080/0143 1161.2016.1154225
  • Hirota, M., Holmgren, M., Van Nes, E. H., & Scheffer, M. (2011). Global Resilience of Tropical Forest and Savanna to Critical Transitions. Science, 334(6053), 232. https://doi.org/10.1126/science. 1210657 Hoell, A., Funk, C., Magadzire, T., Zinke, J., & Husak, G. (2015). El Niño–Southern Oscillation diversity and Southern Africa teleconnections during Austral Summer. Climate Dynamics, 45(5), 1583–1599. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2414-z
  • Hsu, D., Kakade, S. M., & Zhang, T. (2008). A Spectral Algorithm for Learning Hidden Markov Models. CoRR, abs/0811.4413. Retrieved from http://arxiv.org/abs/0811.4413 191
  • Hyandye, C., & Martz, L. W. (2017). A Markovian and Cellular Automata Land-use Change Predictive Model of the Usangu Catchment. Int. J. Remote Sens., 38(1), 64–81. https://doi.org/10.108 0/01431161.2016.1259675
  • Jacquin, A., Sheeren, D., & Lacombe, J. P. (2010). Vegetation cover degradation assessment in Madagascar savanna based on trend analysis of MODIS NDVI time series. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 12, S3-S10.
  • Joppa, L. N., Loarie, S. R., & Pimm, S. L. (2009). On Population Growth Near Protected Areas. PLoS ONE, 4(1), e4279. https:// doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0004279
  • Kamusoko, C., Aniya, M., Adi, B., & Manjoro, M. (2009). Rural sustainability under threat in Zimbabwe – Simulation of future land-use/cover changes in the Bindura district based on the Markov-cellular automata model. Applied Geography, 29(3), 435–447. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog. 2008.10.002
  • Kiker, G., Scholtz, R., Smith, I., & Venter, F. J. (2014). Exploring an extensive dataset to establish woody vegetation cover and composition in Kruger National Park for the late 1980s. Koedoe, 56(1), 10. https://doi.org/10.4102/koedoe.v56i1.1200
  • Knapp, A.K., Briggs, J.M., Collins, S.L., Archer, S.R., BRET‐HARTE, M.S., Ewers, B.E., Peters, D.P., Young, D.R., Shaver, G.R., Pendall, E. & Cleary, M.B. (2008). Shrub encroachment in North American grasslands: shifts in growth form dominance rapidly alters control of ecosystem carbon inputs. Global Change Biology, 14(3), 615–623. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01512.x
  • Kumar, S., Radhakrishnan, N., & Mathew, S. (2014). land-use change modelling using a Markov model and remote sensing. Geomatics, Natural Hazards, and Risk, 5(2), 145–156. https://doi.org/1 0.1080/19475705.2013.795502
  • Lambin, E.F., Turner, B.L., Geist, H.J., Agbola, S.B., Angelsen, A., Bruce, J.W., Coomes, O.T., Dirzo, R., Fischer, G., Folke, C. & George, P. (2001). The causes of land-use and land-cover change: moving beyond the myths. Global environmental change, 11(4), 261- 269. Ellenbroek, G. A. (2012). Ecology and productivity of an African wetland system: the Kafue Flats, Zambia (Vol. 9). Springer Science & Business Media.
  • Lindsey, P.A., Nyirenda, V.R., Barnes, J.I., Becker, M.S., McRobb, R., Tambling, C.J., Taylor, W.A., Watson, F.G. & t’Sas-Rolfes, M. (2014). Underperformance of African Protected Area Networks and the Case for New Conservation Models: Insights from Zambia. PLoS ONE, 9(5), e94109. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal. pone.0094109
  • Lunstrum, E. (2010). Reconstructing history, grounding claims to space history, memory, and displacement in the Great Limpopo Transfrontier Park. South African Geographical Journal, 92(2), 129–143.
  • Maestre, F. T., & Cortina, J. (2005). Remnant shrubs in Mediterranean semi-arid steppes: effects of shrub size, abiotic factors and species identity on understorey richness and occurrence. Acta Oecologica, 27(3), 161–169. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actao. 2004.11.003 192
  • Midlane, N. (2013). The conservation status and dynamics of a protected African lion Panthera leo population in Kafue National Park, Zambia. University of Cape Town, South Africa. Moleele, N. M., Ringrose, S., Matheson, W., & Vanderpost, C. (2002). More woody plants? the status of bush encroachment in Botswana’s grazing areas. Journal of Environmental Management, 64(1), 3–11. https://doi.org/10.1006/jema.2001.0486
  • Mondal, P., & Southworth, J. (2010). Protection vs. commercial management: Spatial and temporal analysis of land-cover changes in the tropical forests of Central India. Forest Ecology and Management, 259(5), 1009–1017. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco. 2009.12.007
  • Munyati, C., & Ratshibvumo, T. (2010). Differentiating geological fertility derived vegetation zones in Kruger National Park, South Africa, using Landsat and MODIS imagery. Journal for Nature Conservation, 18(3), 169–179. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. jnc.2009.08.001
  • Mwima, H. K. (2001). A Brief History of Kafue National Park, Zambia.” Koedoe 44.1 (2001): 57-72. Koedoe, 44(1), 57–72.
  • Olsson, P., Folke, C., Galaz, V., Hahn, T., & Schultz, L. (2007). Enhancing the fit through adaptive co-management: creating and maintaining bridging functions for matching scales in the Kristianstads Vattenrike Biosphere Reserve, Sweden. Ecology and society, 12(1).
  • Ozdes, M. (2017). Savanna Vegetation Change in Protected Areas of Southern Africa, (Dissertation). University of Florida. http:// www.secheresse.info/spip.php?article115233
  • Ozdes, M. (2023a). Küresel İklim Değişikliği ve Çevresel Değişimlerin Etkisi Altında Arazi Değişim Biliminin Ortaya Çıkışı: Kurak ve Yarı Kurak Ekosistemlerde Arazi Değişimi. DOI: 10.13140/ RG.2.2.16175.30887
  • Ozdes, M. (2023b). The Good, the Bad and the Ugly side of Artificial Intelligence: Assessing the Potential, Capabilities, Limitations, and Ethical Concerns for the use of AI in Land Change Science. (Preprint). DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.28923.69926
  • Özdeş, M., Özşahin, E., & Eroğlu, E. (2019). Corine arazi sınıflandırmasına göre Trakya Yarımadası arazi örtüsü/kullanımı özelliklerinin yeniden değerlendirilmesi. İstanbul: İstanbul Uluslararası Coğrafya Sempozyumu Bildiriler Kitabı, 679, 686. DOI: 10.26650/ PB/PS12.2019.002.066
  • Ozsahin, E., & Ozdes, M. (2022a). Determining the impact of climate change on land suitability for rice paddy cultivation using GIS and RS on FAO maximum limitation approach. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 1-16. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704- 022-04033-4
  • Ozsahin, E., & Ozdes, M. (2022b). Agricultural land suitability assessment for agricultural productivity based on GIS modeling and multi-criteria decision analysis: the case of Tekirdağ province. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 194(1), 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-021-09663-1
  • Ozsahin, E., Alturk, B., Ozdes, M., Sari, H., & Eroglu, I. (2022a). GISbased spatial prediction of poor-drainage areas using frequency ratio: a case study of Tekirdag Province, Turkey. Applied Geomatics, 14(2), 369-386. DOI: 10.1007/s12518-022-00439-x
  • Ozsahin, E., Ozdes, M., Smith, A. C., & Yang, D. (2022c). Remote Sensing and GIS-Based Suitability Mapping of Termite Habitat in the African Savanna: A Case Study of the Lowveld in Kruger National Park. Land, 11(6), 803. https://doi.org/10.3390/land11060803
  • Ozsahin, E., Sari, H., Ozdes, M., Eroglu, I., & Yuksel, O. (2022b). Determination of suitable lands for rice cultivation in Edirne plain: GIS supported FAO limitation method. Paddy and Water Environment, 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10333-022-00895-6
  • Özşahin, E., Özdeş, M., Eroğlu İ. (2019) TR21 Trakya Bölgesi’nde İklim Değişikliğinin Ekonomik Sektörler Üzerine Olası Etkileri. (Editörler) Konukçu F, Albut S, Altürk B. TR21 Trakya Bölgesinde İklim Değişikliğinin Etkileri ve Uyum Stratejileri, 1. baskı. Tekirdağ Namık Kemal Üniversitesi Yayınları, Tekirdağ, pp 169–177. https://www.iklimin.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Bo%CC% 88lu%CC%88m0_Giris%CC%A7.pdf
  • Pacala, S.W., Hurtt, G.C., Baker, D., Peylin, P., Houghton, R.A., Birdsey, R.A., Heath, L., Sundquist, E.T., Stallard, R.F., Ciais, P. & Moorcroft, P. (2001). Consistent Land- and Atmosphere-Based U.S. Carbon Sink Estimates. Science, 292(5525), 23162320. https:// doi.org/10.1126/science.1057320
  • Petit, C., Scudder, T., & Lambin, E. (2001). Quantifying processes of land-cover change by remote sensing: Resettlement and rapid land-cover changes in south-eastern Zambia. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 22(17), 3435–3456. https://doi. org/10.1080/01431160010006881
  • Pontius, R. G., Huffaker, D., & Denman, K. (2004). Useful techniques of validation for spatially explicit land-change models, 179, 445– 461. 193. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2004.05.010
  • Potapov, P., Hansen, M.C., Pickens, A., Hernandez-Serna, A., Tyukavina, A., Turubanova, S., Zalles, V., Li, X., Khan, A., Stolle, F., Harris, N., Song, X-P., Baggett, A., Kommareddy, I., and Kommareddy, A. (2022). The Global 2000-2020 Land Cover and Land Use Change Dataset Derived From the Landsat Archive: First Results. Frontiers in Remote Sensing, 13, April 2022. https://doi.org/10.3389/ frsen.2022.856903
  • Prasad, A. M., Iverson, L. R., & Liaw, A. (2006). Newer Classification and Regression Tree Techniques: Bagging and Random Forests for Ecological Prediction. Ecosystems, 9(2), 181–199. https:// doi.org/10.1007/s10021-005-0054-1
  • Rduch, V. (2016). Population characteristics and coexistence of puku (Kobus vardonii) and impala (Aepyceros melampus) in and around Kafue National Park, Zambia. Mammalian Biology- Zeitschrift Für Säugetierkunde, 81(4), 350–360.
  • Richardson, R. B., Fernandez, A., Tschirley, D., & Tembo, G. (2012). Wildlife Conservation in Zambia: Impacts on Rural Household Welfare. World Development, 40(5), 1068–1081. https://doi. org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2011.09.019
  • Rindfuss, R. R., Walsh, S. J., Turner, B. L., Fox, J., & Mishra, V. (2004). Developing a science of land change: challenges and methodological issues. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 101(39), 13976–81. https://doi. org/10.1073/pnas.0401545101
  • Rodriguez-Galiano, V. F., Ghimire, B., Rogan, J., Chica-Olmo, M., & Rigol-Sanchez, J. P. (2012). An assessment of the effectiveness of a random forest classifier for land-cover classification. ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, 67, 93–104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2011.11.002
  • Rounsevell, M. D., Pedroli, B., Erb, K. H., Gramberger, M., Busck, A. G., Haberl, H., Metzger, M.J., Murray-Rust, D., Popp, A., Pérez-Soba, M., Reenberg, A., Vadineanu, A., Verburg, P. H., ... & Wolfslehner, B. (2012). Challenges for land system science. Land use policy, 29(4), 899-910. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol. 2012.01.007
  • Sankaran, M., & Anderson, T. M. (2009). Management and restoration in African Savannas: Interactions and feedbacks & Kate Suding (eds). In New Models for Ecosystem Dynamics and Restoration (pp. 136–155). Island Press.
  • Sankaran, M., Hanan, N.P., Scholes, R.J., Ratnam, J., Augustine, D.J., Cade, B.S., Gignoux, J., Higgins, S.I., Le Roux, X., Ludwig, F. and Ardo, J., Banyikwa, F., Bronn, A., Bucini, G., Caylor, K.K., Coughenour, M.B., Diouf, A., Ekaya, A., … Zambatis, N. (2005). Determinants of woody cover in African savannas. Nature, 438(7069), 846–9. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04070
  • Sankaran, M., Ratnam, J., & Hanan, N. (2008). Woody cover in African savannas: the role of resources, fire, and herbivory. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 17(2), 236–245. https://doi. org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2007.00360.x
  • Scholes, R. J., & Walker, B. H. (1993). An African savanna: synthesis of the Nylsvley study. Cambridge University Press.
  • Shikolokolo, H. P. (2010). An evaluation of the impact of Kruger National Park’s development programme on the Hlanganani community in Limpopo (Doctoral dissertation).
  • Simasiku, P., Simwanza, H., Tembo, G., Bandyopadhya, S., & Pavy, J. (2008). The impact of wildlife management policies on communities and conservation in game management areas in Zambia. Natural Resources Consultative Forum. 194
  • Smit, I. P. J., & Asner, G. P. (2012). Roads increase woody cover under varying geological, rainfall and fire regimes in African savanna. Journal of Arid Environments, 80, 74–80. https://doi. org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2011.11.026
  • Soulard, C., M. Albano, C., Villarreal, M., & Walker, J. (2016). Continuous 1985–2012 Landsat Monitoring to Assess Fire Effects on Meadows in Yosemite National Park, California (Vol. 8). https:// doi.org/10.3390/rs8050371
  • Southworth, J., & Gibbes, C. (2010). Digital Remote Sensing within the Field of Land Change Science: Past, Present and Future Directions. Geography Compass, 4(12), 1695–1712. https://doi. org/10.1111/j.1749-8198.2010.00401.x
  • Southworth, J., & Muir, C., (2021). Specialty Grand Challenge: Remote Sensing Time Series Analysis. Frontiers in Remote Sensing, 2. https://doi.org/10.3389/frsen.2021.770431
  • Southworth, J., Munroe, D., & Nagendra, H. (2004). land-cover change and landscape fragmentation—comparing the utility of continuous and discrete analyses for a western Honduras region. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 101(2–3), 185– 205. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2003.09.011
  • Southworth, J., Zhu, L., Bunting, E., Ryan, S. J., Herrero, H., Waylen, P. R., & Hill, M. J. (2016). Changes in vegetation persistence across global savanna landscapes, 1982–2010. Journal of land-use Science, 11(1), 7–32. https://doi.org/10.1080/174742 3X.2015.1071439
  • Strobl, C. (2010). An Introduction to Recursive Partitioning: Rational, Application, and Characteristics of Classification and Regression Trees, Bagging, and Random Forests. Nih Public Access, 14(4), 323–348. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0016973.An
  • Takada, T., Miyamoto, A., and Hasegawa, S.F., (2010) Derivation of a yearly transition probability matrix for land-use dynamics and its applications, Landscape Ecology, 25, 561–572.
  • Trollope, W. S. W., Trollope, L. A., Biggs, H. C., Pienaar, D., & Potgieter, A. L. F. (1998). Long-term changes in the woody vegetation of the Kruger National Park, with special reference to the effects of elephants and fire. Koedoe; Vol 41, No 2 (1998). Retrieved from http://koedoe.co.za/index.php/koedoe/article/view/255
  • Turner, B. L. (2002). Toward integrated land-change science: Advances in 1.5 decades of sustained international research on landuse and land-cover change. In Challenges of a changing earth (pp. 21-26). Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg.
  • Turner, B. L., & Robbins, P. (2008). Land-Change Science and Political Ecology: Similarities, Differences, and Implications for Sustainability Science. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 33(1), 295–316. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.environ. 33.022207.104943 195
  • Turner, B. L., Lambin, E. F., & Renenber, A. (2007). The emergence of land change science for global environmental change and sustainability, 104(52), 20666–20671.
  • Van Auken, O. W. (2009). Causes and consequences of woody plant encroachment into western North American grasslands. Journal of Environmental Management, 90(10), 2931–2942. https://doi. org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2009.04.023
  • van Wilgen, B. W., & Biggs, H. C. (2011). A critical assessment of adaptive ecosystem management in a large savanna protected area in South Africa. Biological Conservation, 144(4), 1179– 1187. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2010.05.006
  • van Wilgen, B. W., Govender, N., & MacFadyen, S. (2008). An assessment of the implementation and outcomes of recent changes to fire management in the Kruger National Park. Koedoe; Vol 50, No 1 (2008). Retrieved from http://www.koedoe.co.za/index. php/koedoe/article/view/135
  • Van‘t Veen, H., Eppinga, M. B., Mwampamba, T. H., & Dos Santos, M. J. F. (2021). Long term impacts of transitions in charcoal production systems in tropical biomes. Environmental Research Letters, 16(3), 034009.
  • Venter, F. J. (1992). A classification of land for management planning in the Kruger National Park (Doctoral dissertation, University of South Africa).
  • Venter, F. J., Naiman, R. J., Biggs, H. C., & Pienaar, D. J. (2008). The Evolution of Conservation Management Philosophy: Science, Environmental Change and Social Adjustments in Kruger National Park. Ecosystems, 11(2), 173–192. https://doi.org/10.1007/ s10021-007-9116-x
  • Vinya, R., Syampungani, S., Kasumu, E. C., Monde, C., & Kasubika. (2011). Preliminary study on the drivers of deforestation & potential for REDD+ in Zambia. Lusaka, Zambia: A consultancy report prepared for Forestry Department and FAO under the national UN-REDD+ Programme Ministry of Lands & Natural Resources.
  • Walker, B. H., & Noy-Meir, I. (1982). Aspects of the Stability and Resilience of Savanna Ecosystems. In B. J. Huntley & B. H. Walker (Eds.), Ecology of Tropical Savannas (pp. 556–590). Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg. https://doi. org/10.1007/978-3-642-68786-0_26
  • Walker, B. H., Ludwig, D., Holling, C. S., & Peterman, R. M. (1981). Stability of Semi-Arid Savanna Grazing Systems. Journal of Ecology, 69(2), 473–498. https://doi.org/10.2307/2259679
  • Walter, H., 1954. Die Verbuschung: eine Erscheinung der subtropischen Savannengebiete und ihre ökologische Ursachen. Vegetatio 5/6: 6–10.
  • Watson, F. G. R., Becker, M. S., Milanzi, J., & Nyirenda, M. (2015). Human encroachment into protected area networks in Zambia: implications for large carnivore conservation. Regional Environmental Change, 15(2), 415–429. https://doi.org/10.1007/ s10113-014-0629-5 196
  • Wessels, K.J., Mathieu, R., Erasmus, B.F.N., Asner, G.P., Smit, I.P.J., Van Aardt, J.A.N., Main, R., Fisher, J., Marais, W., Kennedy-Bowdoin, T., & Knapp, D.E. (2011). Impact of communal land-use and conservation on woody vegetation structure in the Lowveld savannas of South Africa. Forest Ecology and Management, 261(1), 19–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2010.09.012
  • Wessels, K. J., Prince, S. D., Zambatis, N., MacFadyen, S., Frost, P. E., & Van Zyl, D. (2006). Relationship between herbaceous biomass and 1‐km 2 Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) NDVI in Kruger National Park, South Africa. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 27(5), 951–973. https://doi. org/10.1080/01431160500169098
  • Westoby, M., Walker, B., & Noy-Meir, I. (1989). Opportunistic management for rangelands not at equilibrium. Rangeland Ecology & Management/Journal of Range Management Archives, 42(4), 266-274.
  • Wittemyer, G., Elsen, P., Bean, W. T., Burton, A. C. O., & Brashares, J. S. (2008). Accelerated Human Population Growth at Protected Area Edges. Science, 321(5885), 123–126. https://doi. org/10.1126/science.1158900
  • ZAWA. (2010). Kafue National Park General Implementation Project (2012-2016) (GMP) (p. 138).
There are 110 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Human Geography, Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Geological Sciences and Engineering (Other)
Journal Section Review Article
Authors

Mehmet Özdeş 0000-0003-3538-8861

Jane Southworth This is me 0000-0002-7246-7879

Project Number Yok
Publication Date June 30, 2023
Acceptance Date June 24, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023 Issue: 82

Cite

APA Özdeş, M., & Southworth, J. (2023). Land Change Science: Understanding the complexity of monitoring protected areas in savanna ecosystems of Sub-Saharan Africa. Türk Coğrafya Dergisi(82), 63-76. https://doi.org/10.17211/tcd.1211634

Publisher: Turkish Geographical Society