Türkiye’deki 2007 ve 2013 Yılı Kuraklıklarının NOAH Hidrolojik Modeli ile İncelenmesi

Year 2016, Volume: 27 Issue: 4, 7619 - 7634, 01.10.2016

Burak Bulut M. Tuğrul Yılmaz

Abstract

Ülkemizde ve dünyada verdiği
zararlar açısından doğal afet olarak nitelendirilen kuraklığın analizi ve
sonucunda niteliklerinin (süre, şiddet, etki alanı) belirlenmesi, bu doğal
afetin etkilerinin daha iyi anlaşılması ve azaltılması ve erken tahmininin
yapılabilmesi açısından çok kritiktir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’deki kuraklık
analizi için hem hidrolojik modelden elde edilen toprak nemi değeri hem de
uzaktan algılama ile elde edilen bitki örtüsü indeksi kullanılmıştır. Kuraklık
çalışmalarında yaygın olarak kullanılan bu parametrelerin kullanımı ile
2000-2014 dönemi incelenmiş ve özellikle 2007, 2013 yıllarındaki kuraklığın
detaylı analizi yapılmıştır.

Keywords

NOAH, hidrolojik model, uzaktan algılama, kuraklık

Analysis of the 2007 and 2013 Droughts in Turkey by NOAH Hydrological Model

Abstract

Analysis of drought, which is classified as a natural disaster, is
globally considering the damage it gives. As a result detection of its
characteristics is essential for understanding and reducing the effects of this
natural disaster and for imminent prediction. In this study, soil moisture
estimates obtained from NOAH hydrological model and normalized difference
vegetation index obtained from MODIS observations are used to analysis the
recent droughts in Turkey. With the utilization of these parameters that are commonly
used in drought studies, years 2000-2014 have been examined and a detailed
analysis of the drought particularly in the years 2007, 2013 has been carried
out.

Keywords

NOAH, hydrological model, remote sensing, drought

References

• Pereira, L. S., Cordery, I., & Iacovides, I., Coping with water scarcity: addressing the challenges. Springer Science & Business Media, 2009.
• Maybank, J., Bonsai, B., Jones, K., Lawford, R., O'brien, E. G., Ripley, E. A., Wheaton, E., Drought as a Natural Disaster. Atmosphere-Ocean, 33(2), 195-222, 1995.
• Sheffield, J., Goteti, G., Wen, F.,Wood, E. F., A Simulated Soil Moisture Based Drought Analysis for the United States. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 109(D24), 1984–2012.
• Olukayode Oladipo, E., A Comparative Performance Analysis of Three Meteorological Drought Indices. Journal of Climatology, 5(6), 655-664, 1995.
• Parinussa, R. M., Yilmaz M. T., Anderson M.C., Hain, C.R., de Jeu R.A.M., An Intercomparison of Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture Products at Various Spatial Scales Over the Iberian Peninsula. Hydrol. Processes, 28(18), 4865-4876, 2013.
• Entekhabi, D., Rodriguez-Iturbe, I., Castelli, F., Mutual Interaction of Soil Moisture State and Atmospheric Processes. Journal of Hydrology, 184(1), 3-17, 1996.
• Keyantash, J., Dracup, J. A., The Quantification of Drought: An Evaluation of Drought Indices. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 83(8), 1167-1180, 2002.
• Wang, X., Xie, H., Guan, H., Zhou, X., Different Responses of MODIS-derived NDVI to Root-zone Soil Moisture in Semi-arid and Humid Regions. Journal of Hydrology, 340(1), 12-24, 2007.
• Huete, A., Justice, C., Van Leeuwen, W., MODIS Vegetation Index (MOD13). Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document, 3, 213, 1999.
• Türkeş, M., Türkiye’de Gözlenen ve Öngörülen Iklim Değişikliği, Kuraklık ve Çölleşme, Ankara Üniversitesi Çevre Bilimleri Dergisi, 4 (2), 1-32, 2013.
• Türkeş, M., Türkiye’deki 2013-2014 Kuraklığının ve Klimatolojik/Meteorolojik Nedenlerinin Çözümlenmesi, Konya Toprak Su Dergisi, 2, 20-34, 2014.
• Ek, M.B., Mitchell, K.E., Lin, Y., Rogers, E., Grunmann, P., Koren, V., ..., Tarpley, J. D., Implementation of Noah Land Surface Model Advances in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Operational Mesoscale Eta Model. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (1984–2012), 108(D22), 2003.
• Rodell, M., Houser, P.R., Jambor, U.E.A., Gottschalck, J., Mitchell, K., Meng, C.J., ... ,Toll, D. The Global Land Data Assimilation System. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 85(3), 381-394, 2004.
• Tucker, C.J., Red and Photographic Infrared Linear Combinations for Monitoring Vegetation. Remote Sensing of Environment, 8(2), 127-150, 1979.
• Kogan, F. N., Observations of the 1990 U.S. drought from the NOAA-11 polar-orbiting satellite, Drought Network News, 3(2), 7-11, 1991.
• Wan, Z., Wang, P., Li, X., Using MODIS Land Surface Temperature and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index Products for Monitoring Drought in the Southern Great Plains, USA. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 25(1), 61-72, 2004.
• Gu, Y., Brown, J.F., Verdin, J.P., Wardlow, B., A Five‐year Analysis of MODIS NDVI and NDWI for Grassland Drought Assessment Over the Central Great Plains of the United States. Geophysical Research Letters, 34(6), 2007.
• Mu, Q., Heinsch, F.A., Zhao, M., Running, S.W., Development of a Global Evapotranspiration Algorithm Based on MODIS and Global Meteorology Data. Remote Sensing of Environment, 111(4), 519-536, 2007.
• Mu, Q., Zhao, M., Running, S.W., Improvements to a MODIS Global Terrestrial Evapotranspiration Algorithm. Remote Sensing of Environment, 115(8), 1781-1800, 2011.
• OSİBMGM, Orman Ve Su İşleri Bakanlığı Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü Araştırma Dairesi Başkanlığı, Türkiye’nin 2011–2012 Tarım Yılı Kuraklık Analizi, 2012. (http://www.mgm.gov.tr/FILES/arastirma/2011-2012-kuraklik.pdf), en son erişim tarihi 26 Şubat 2015.