Middle Income Trap: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis

Year 2019, Special Issue of Turkish Economy, 153 - 182, 30.06.2019

Hicran Kasa

https://doi.org/10.30626/tesamakademi.584291

Cited By: 1

Abstract

The middle income trap describes countries that have not been able to accomplish sustainable economic growth and have been stuck in the level of income per capita for many years. In this study, countries located in OECD have been analyzed by using savings rate, R&D expenditures and high technology export data and investigated effect on sustainable economic growth. The variables have been analysed by applying  dynamic CCEGM model. Positive results have been obtained as expected. In addition, while variable of R&D expenditures have  highest impact on the growth performance of 20 countries, variable of domestic savings have highest impact on the growth performance of middle income countries such as Turkey. In this context, since investments to increase R & D expenditures will affect growth in the long run, middle income countries should be produce priority policies aimed at increasing domestic savings.

Keywords

Middle Income Trap, CCEGM, OECD, Turkey, World Bank

ORTA GELİR TUZAĞI: DİNAMİK PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Abstract

“Orta Gelir Tuzağı” kavramı, sürdürülebilir ekonomik büyümeyi başaramamış ve aynı kişi başına düşen milli gelir seviyesinde çok uzun yıllar takılı kalmış ülkeleri nitelendirmektedir. Bu çalışmada, seçilmiş OECD ülkelerine yönelik; Ar-Ge harcamaları, yurtiçi tasarruf oranları ve yüksek teknoloji ürün ihracatının ekonomik büyüme üzerine etkileri araştırılmıştır. Söz konusu değişkenler, dinamik CCEGM modeli kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. 20 OECD ülkesinin 1995-2015 verilerinden yola çıkılarak oluşturulan panel veri sonucunda, beklentiye uygun olarak değişkenler arası pozitif sonuçlar elde edilmiştir. Ayrıca, söz konusu 20 ülkenin büyüme performanslarında en yüksek etkiye sahip olan değişken Ar-Ge harcamaları iken Türkiye özelinde değerlendirildiğinde en yüksek etkiye sahip değişkenin yurtiçi tasarruflar olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Bu bağlamda, Türkiye gibi orta gelirli ülkelerde Ar-Ge harcamalarının artırılmasına yönelik yapılacak yatırımların, uzun dönemde katma değeri yüksek mal ve hizmet üretimini ve ihracatını artıracağı gerçeğinden yola çıkarak öncelikli olarak yurtiçi tasarrufları artırmaya yönelik politikalara önem verilmelidir. 

Keywords

Orta Gelir Tuzağı, CCEGM, OECD, Türkiye, Dünya Bankası

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