DOĞUM ORANININ MODELLENMESİ İÇİN İSTATİSTİKSEL DAĞILIMLARIN KARŞILAŞTIRILMASI

Year 2023, Volume: 22 Issue: 44, 281 - 291, 31.12.2023

Ceren Ünal , Gamze Özel

https://doi.org/10.55071/ticaretfbd.1277633

Abstract

Nüfus istatistikleri ve demografi, ülkenin yaşam kalitesini, sosyal ve sağlık durumunu, nüfusun durumunu, nüfus yapısındaki değişimi ve bunun ekonomik hayata etkisini gösteren önemli göstergelerdir. Demografide, bir nüfusun büyümesini ölçmek için kaba doğum hızı kullanılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'deki istatistiki bölge sınıflandırmasına göre kaba doğum hızı değerlerinin istatistiki dağılımlara uyumu araştırılmaktadır. Elde edilen sonuçlar karşılaştırıldığında, Türkiye'de kaba doğum hızı değerlerini modellemek için Normal, Log-Normal, Exponential, Gamma ve Weibull dağılımlarına göre en iyi uyumu Gumbel dağılımı sağlamaktadır. Karşılaştırılan dağılımlar arasında, Gumbel dağılımının log olabilirlik (logL), Akaike bilgi kriterleri (AIC) ve Bayes bilgi kriterleri (BIC) değerleri tüm modeller arasında en düşük olduğundan, CBR verilerini en iyi sunan model Gumbel modelidir. Ayrıca, karşılaştırılan dağılımlar ile sonuçlar grafiklerle desteklenmiştir.

Keywords

Kaba doğum hızı, uç değer dağılımları, Gumbel dağılımı, Nüfus tahminleri, Türkiye nüfusu

A COMPARISON OF STATISTICAL DISTRIBUTIONS FOR THE CRUDE BIRTH RATE DATA

Abstract

Population statistics and demographic are important indicators to show the country's quality of life, social and health, the status of the population, the change in the population structure, and its effect on economic life. In demography, the crude birth rate is used to measure the growth of a population. In this study, we perform the crude birth rate values by statistical regions in Türkiye with some statistical distributions. When the results are compared, the Gumbel distribution provides the best fit to model the crude birth rate values than Normal, Log-Normal, Exponential, Gamma, and Weibull distributions. Among compared distributions, the Gumbel model is the best model to present the CBR data since log likelihood (logL), Akaike information criteria (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC) values of the Gumbel distribution are the lowest among all models. In addition, the results with the compared distributions are supported by graphs.

Keywords

Crude birth rate, Extreme value distributions, Gumbel distribution, Population estimates, Turkish population

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