Crossing the Rubicon: The Munich Syndrome and Forcing Israel to Peace, 1970-1978

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 2

Menderes Kurt

https://doi.org/10.26513/tocd.1475743

Öz

Munich Syndrome has been considered a constraint in the peace process decision-making of Israel. By raising questions such as what obstructs peacemaking in Israel, its costs, and whether it can force peace, the study employs the Munich analogy as a “historical lesson” method to examine why and how peace has turned into an anomaly in Israel. The Munich Agreement of 1938 by Britain and France, amid raging anti-Jewish violence in Europe, sought to appease Adolf Hitler by acquiescing to the German occupation of Czechoslovakia to prevent the world war outbreak, which, however, backfired and emerged as a metaphor for foreign policy decision-making weakness. This historical lesson has impacted Israeli society’s and its leaders’ attitudes towards peace, turning it into a Rubicon line. The study uses the 1970-1978 Arab-Israeli peace process as a case study to explain how the Munich Syndrome impedes peacemaking decisions and potential ways of overcoming it. It argues that a possible way to encourage Israel to make peace with its adversaries is with third parties providing significant concessions and guarantees.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Munich Syndrome, Rubicon, Israel, Arabs, Peace Decision, Guarantee

Rubicon’u Geçmek: Münih Sendromu ve İsrail’i Barışa Zorlamak, 1970-1978

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı İsrail’in barış süreçlerindeki bir kısıtlılık olan Münih Sendromunu ortaya koymaktır. İsrail’de barış çok arzulanmasına rağmen barış yapmak İsrail için neden bu kadar zor? Neden barış bir anomalidir? Barış yapmanın bedelleri nedir? İsrail nasıl barışa zorlanır? gibi sorular üzerinden bu iddiayı açıklamayı hedeflemektedir. Yöntem olarak “tarihsel dersi” kullanan çalışma, 1938 Münih Anlaşması analojisi üzerinden İsrail’in barış süreçlerinde karar vermesinde bir kısıtlılık olarak yerleşen Münih analojisinin, İsrail’de barışın neden bir anomaliye dönüştüğünün cevabı olduğu kanaatindedir. Bu çerçevede Münih anlaşmasının bir tarihsel analoji olarak Holokost ile özdeştirildiği ve olumsuz bir tarihsel ders niteliğinde yarattığı kısa yolun, İsrail toplumu ve liderlerinin barışa dair tutumlarında bir kısıtlılık olarak varlık bulduğu ve rubicon çizgisine dönüştüğünü iddia etmektedir. Bu noktada çalışma, 1970-1978 Arap-İsrail barış sürecini vaka analizi olarak seçmiştir. Çalışma son olarak sadece Münih Sendromunun barış kararı vermede oluşturduğu kısıtlılığı açıklamakla kalmamakta ayrıca bu kısıtlılığın nasıl aşılabileceğini ele almaktadır. Bu minvalde temel iddiamız ise İsrail’in düşmanla barışı ancak büyük tavizler ve garantilerle mümkün olabileceğidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Münih Sendromu, Rubicon, İsrail, Arab, Barış Kararı, Garantiler

Kaynakça

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