TÜRKİYE’DE BELEDİYELERİN MALİ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİĞİ: BİRİNCİL DENGE YAKLAŞIMI

Year 2018, Volume: 20 Issue: 2, 207 - 222, 27.12.2018

Umut Akduğan , Bilge Hakan Agun

https://doi.org/10.26468/trakyasobed.452043

Cited By: 7

Abstract

Mali
sürdürülebilirlik, hükümetin bütçe kısıtı temel alınarak farklı tekniklerle
analiz edilmektedir. Hamilton ve Flavin (1986) tarafından mali
sürdürülebilirliğe ilişkin geliştirilen yöntem, cari dönemdeki bütçe açığının
veya borç stokunun gelecek dönemlerdeki bütçe fazlasıyla karşılanıp
karşılanamayacağının belirlenmesine dayanmaktadır. Dolayısıyla dönemlerarası
bütçe kısıtı, mali sürdürülebilirliğin bir göstergesi olarak kabul
edilmektedir. Bu çalışmada merkezi yönetim bütçe açığının sürdürülebilirliğine
ilişkin yaklaşım belediyelere uyarlanmış, Türkiye’de tümleşik belediyelerin
birincil bütçe dengesi baz alınarak belediyelerin mali sürdürülebilirliği
incelenmiştir. Çalışmada belediyelerin mali sürdürülebilirliğinin
araştırılmasında, belediyelere ilişkin gelirler ile faiz dışı harcamalar
arasındaki farkı ifade eden birincil bütçe dengesi değişkeninin durağanlığı
sınanmıştır. Bu kapsamda 2007-2017 dönemine ait üçer aylık veriler kullanılmış,
seri 2010 yılı bazlı reel GSYH endeksi ile reel hale getirilmiş, son olarak da
modelde serinin doğal logaritması kullanılmıştır. Birincil bütçe dengesi
serisinin durağanlığının analiz edilmesinde ADF, PP ve Ng-Perron Birim Kök
Testleri’nin yanı sıra yapısal kırılmanın tespiti için Zivot-Andrews (1992)’in
birim kök testinden faydalanılmıştır. Analiz sonuçları, incelenen dönemde belediyelere
ilişkin birincil bütçe dengesi serisinin durağan olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu
bulgu, söz konusu dönemde Türkiye’de belediyelerin mali sürdürülebilirlik
koşulunu sağladığını ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

Belediyeler, mali sürdürülebilirlik, birincil denge, birim kök testi

FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY OF MUNICIPALITIES IN TURKEY: PRIMARY BALANCE APPROACH

Abstract

Fiscal sustainability is
analyzed by different techniques on the basis of government budget constraint.
The method developed for fiscal sustainability by Hamilton and Flavin (1986) is
based on determining whether the budget deficit or debt stock of the current
term can be met with the budget surpluses in the future terms. Therefore,
lifetime budget constraints are regarded as a sign of fiscal sustainability. In
this study, the approach relating to sustainability of central government
budget deficit is adapted to municipalities, and fiscal sustainability of
municipalities in Turkey is examined on the basis of primary budget balance of
the integrated municipalities. To analyze the fiscal sustainability of the
municipalities, the stationarity of the primary budget balance variable, which
expresses the difference between the municipal revenues and expenditures
excluding interest payments, has been tested. In this context, quarterly data
of the period of 2007-2017 is used, the series is made real with the real GDP
index based on the year of 2010, and finally the natural logarithm of the
series is used in the model. In analyzing the stationary of the primary budget
balance series, ADF, PP and Ng-Perron Unit Root Tests as well as the unit root
test of Zivot-Andrews (1992) were used to determine the structural breakage.
The results of the analysis indicate that the primary budget balance series of
the municipalities is stationary during this period. These findings reveals
that the municipalities in Turkey ensure the fiscal sustainability criteria.

Keywords

Municipalities, Fiscal sustainability, Primary balance

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