ChatGPT HİSSE SENEDİ DEĞERLEMEDE KULLANILABİLİR Mİ? BORSA İSTANBUL ÜZERİNE BİR ARAŞTIRMA

Year 2023, Volume: 6 Issue: 2, 201 - 227, 31.12.2023

Ali Özer , İstemi Çömlekçi , Serkan Unal

https://doi.org/10.52736/ubeyad.1287067

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Günümüzde teknoloji hızla ilerlemekte insanlar tarafından yapılan birçok iş, çok daha hızlı ve kusursuz bir şekilde bilgisayarlar tarafından yapılabilmektedir. Özellikle doğal dil işleme yeteneği olan ChatGPT gibi modeller aynı zamanda matematiksel işlemleri de yapabilmekte, tabloları okuyup yorumlayabilmektedirler. Bu araştırmada ChatGPT’nin şirketlerin finansal tablolarını kullanarak hisse senedi değerlemesi yapmakta ne derece başarılı olduğu araştırılmıştır. ChatGPT’ye geçmişe dönük finansal tablo verisi verilmiş ve adil piyasa değeri tahmini istenmiştir. Daha sonrasında ChatGPT tarafından tahmin edilen adil piyasa değeri ile cari piyasa değeri arasındaki fark tespit edilmiş ve bu farkın takip eden bir yılda hisse senedi getirilerini ne ölçüde tahmin edebildiği araştırılmıştır. Araştırma bulgularına göre ChatGPT tarafından iskontolu işlem gördüğü belirlenen hisselerin takip eden bir yıllık dönemdeki ortalama hisse senedi performansı %87, medyan hisse senedi performansı %38 olmuştur. ChatGPT tarafından primli işlem gördüğü belirlenen hisselerin ise takip eden bir yıllık dönemdeki ortalama hisse senedi performansı %79, medyan hisse senedi performansı %32 olmuştur. Araştırma bulguları ChatGPT’nin belli seviyede değerleme yeteneği olduğuna işaret etse de elde edilen sonuçların istatistiksel anlamlılık derecesi düşüktür.

Keywords

ChatGPT, Borsa İstanbul, Yapay Zeka (AI) Araçları, Değerleme

CAN ChatGPT BE USED FOR STOCK VALUATION? A RESEARCH ON BORSA ISTANBUL

Abstract

Today, technology is advancing rapidly. Many jobs done by humans can be done much faster and more precisely by computers. Models such as ChatGPT, which have natural language processing capability, can also perform mathematical operations, and read and interpret tables. This research has investigated how successful ChatGPT is in valuing stocks using companies' financial statements. In the research, historical financial statement data was given to ChatGPT, and a fair market value estimation was requested. Then, the difference between the fair market value estimated by ChatGPT and the current market value was determined. It has been investigated to what extent this difference can predict stock returns in the following year. According to the research findings, the average stock performance of the shares determined to be traded at a discount by ChatGPT in the subsequent one-year period was 87%, and the median stock performance was 38%. The average stock performance of the shares determined to be traded at a premium by ChatGPT in the following one-year period was 79%, and the median stock performance was 32%. Although the research findings indicate that ChatGPT has a certain level of valuation ability, the statistical significance of the obtained results is low.

Keywords

ChatGPT, Borsa İstanbul, Artificial Intelligence (AI) Tools, Valuation

References

• Aljanabi, M. (2023). ChatGPT: Future directions and open possibilities. Mesopotamian Journal of CyberSecurity, 2023, 16-17.
• Alshurafat, H. (2023). The Usefulness and Challenges of Chatbots for Accounting Professionals: Application On ChatGPT (February 2, 2023), http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4345921
• Ante, L. and Demir, E. (2023). The ChatGPT Effect on AI-Themed Cryptocurrencies (February 7, 2023), http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4350557.
• Badini S., Regondi S., Frontoni E., (2023). Assessing the capabilities of ChatGPT to improve additive manufacturing troubleshooting, Advanced Industrial and Engineering Polymer Research, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aiepr.2023.03.003.
• Baloğlu, G. ve Çakalı, K. R. (2023). Is Artificial Intelligence a New Threat to the Academic Ethics?: Enron Scandal Revisited By ChatGPT, İşletme Dergisi, 4 (1), 143-165.
• Borji, A. (2023). A categorical archive of ChatGPT failures. arXiv preprint arXiv:2302.03494. 1-41.
• Carvalho, I., & Ivanov, S. (2023). ChatGPT for tourism: applications, benefits and risks. Tourism Review., 78(3). 1-14.
• Donmez, I., Idil., S. & Gulen, S. (2023). Conducting academic research with the AI interface ChatGPT: Challenges and opportunities. Journal of STEAM Education, 6(2), 101-118. https://doi.org/10.55290/steam.1263404.
• Dowling, M. ve Lucey, B. (2023). ChatGPT for (finance) research: The Bananarama conjecture. Finance Research Letters, 53, 103662. 1-6.
• Frieder, S., Pinchetti, L., Griffiths, R. R., Salvatori, T., Lukasiewicz, T., Petersen, P. C., Chevalier A. & Berner, J. (2023). Mathematical capabilities of chatgpt. arXiv preprint arXiv:2301.13867. 1-29.
• George, A. S. & George, A. H. (2023). A review of ChatGPT AI's impact on several business sectors. Partners Universal International Innovation Journal, 1(1), 9-23.
• George, A. S., George, A. S. H. and Martin, A. S. G. (2023). “A review of ChatGPT AI’s impact on several business sectors”. Partners universal international innovation journal, Vol. 1, No. 1, 9-23. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7644359
• Guo, B., Zhang, X., Wang, Z., Jiang, M., Nie, J., Ding, Y., Yue, J. and Wu, Y. (2023). How Close is ChatGPT to Human Experts? Comparison Corpus, Evaluation, and Detection, arXiv - CS - Computation and Language Pub Date: 2023-01-18 , DOI:arxiv-2301.07597.
• Günek, A. (2023). Dijital Çağda bilginin Dönüşümü ve yapay zeka: Üretim ve İktidar İlişkileri Açısından bir değerlendirme. Communicata, 25, 1-8.
• Halaweh, M. (2023). ChatGPT in education: Strategies for responsible implementation. Contemporary Educational Technology, 15(2), ep421. https://doi.org/10.30935/cedtech/13036.
• Haleem, A., Javaid, M., & Singh, R. P. (2022). An era of ChatGPT as a significant futuristic support tool: A study on features, abilities, and challenges. BenchCouncil transactions on benchmarks, standards and evaluations, 2(4), 100089.
• Hwang, S. and Kim, J. (2021). Toward a chatbot for financial sustainability. Sustainability, 13(6), 3173. 1-18.
• Hao, K. (2020). OpenAI is giving Microsoft exclusive access to its GPT-3 language model. MIT Technology Review, September 23, Erişim Tarihi: 05.04.2023 https://www.technologyreviewcom/2020/09/23/1008729/openai-is-giving-microsoftexclusive-access-to-its-gpt-3-language-model.
• Markoff, J. (2015). Silicon valley investors to bankroll artificial-intelligence center. The Seattle Times, December 13, Erişim Tarihi: 05.04.2023, https://www.seattletimes.com/business/technology/silicon-valley-investors-to-bankroll-artificial-intelligence-center/
• OpenAI. (2023). Introducing OpenAI. Erişim Tarihi: 05.04.2023, https://openai.com/blog/introducing-openai Ramjattan, R., Hosein, P. and Henry, N. (2021). Using Chatbot Technologies to help Individuals make Sound Personalized Financial Decisions, IEEE International Humanitarian Technology Conference (IHTC), DOI: 10.1109/IHTC53077.2021.9698928
• Rudolph, J., Tan, S. and Tan, S. (2023). ChatGPT: Bullshit spewer or the end of traditional assessments in higher education?, Journal of Applied Learning & Teaching, Vol.6 No.1, DOI: https://doi.org/10.37074/jalt.2023.6.1.9
• Singh, D. (2023). ChatGPT: A New Approach to Revolutionise Organisations, International Journal of New Media Studies (IJNMS), 10(1), 57-63.
• Sullivan, M., Kelly, A., & McLaughlan, P. (2023). ChatGPT in higher education: Considerations for academic integrity and student learning. Journal of Applied Learning and Teaching, 6(1), 1-10.
• Talan, T., ve Kalinkara, Y. (2023). The role of artificial intelligence in higher education: ChatGPT assessment for anatomy course. International Journal of Management Information Systems and Computer Science, 7(1), 33-40.
• Topsakal, O. ve Topsakal, E. (2022). Framework for A Foreign Language Teaching Software for Children Utilizing AR, Voicebots and ChatGPT (Large Language Models), The Journal of Cognitive Systems, Vol.7, No.2, 33-38.
• Yue, T., Au, D., Au, C. C. and Iu, K. Y. (2023). Democratizing Financial Knowledge with ChatGPT by OpenAI: Unleashing the Power of Technology (February 2, 2023). http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4346152
• Zaremba, A. and Demir, E. (2023). ChatGPT: Unlocking the Future of NLP in Finance (January 13, 2023). http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4323643.
• Zhong, Q., Ding, L., Liu, J., Du, B., & Tao, D. (2023). Can chatgpt understand too? a comparative study on chatgpt and fine-tuned bert. arXiv preprint arXiv:2302.10198. 1-19.