TÜRKİYE’NİN YEŞİL BÜYÜME PERFORMANSININ PARİS ANLAŞMASI BAĞLAMINDA KARBON VERİMLİLİĞİ ÜZERİNDEN DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ

Year 2024, , 1 - 20, 07.08.2024

Meltem Tarı Özgür

https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.1413611

Abstract

Günümüzde iklim değişikliğinin, Dünya’nın geleceği ile ilgili en ciddi tehditlerden birisi olduğu herhangi bir şüpheye yer kalmayacak şekilde açıklığa kavuşmuştur. İklim değişikliğinin büyük oranda insan faaliyetleri tarafından tetiklendiği de bilinmektedir. Bu nedenle Paris Anlaşması’na taraf olan ülkeler, ortalama yüzey sıcaklığı artışının 2100 yılına kadar sanayileşme öncesindeki seviyeye kıyasla 2,0 ℃ ile sınırlandırılması konusunda anlaşmaya varmıştır. Bu hedef için gerekli sera gazı azalımının ekonomik büyümeden ödün vermeden sağlanabilmesi için yeşil büyüme modeli benimsenmiştir. Bu çalışmada ilk olarak gerçek yeşil büyüme (GYB) tanımı yardımıyla yeşil büyüme modelinin Paris Anlaşması’na uyumu sağlanmıştır. GYB’nin sağlanabilmesi başka bir deyişle 2,0 ℃ hedefine ulaşılabilmesi için yıllık karbon verimliliği artışının %5 olması gerektiği, çalışmada kullanılan küresel ekonomik büyüme projeksiyonu ve sera gazı salımı senaryosu göz önünde bulundurularak gösterilmiştir. Ardından Türkiye’nin GYB performansı, 2004-2020 yılları arasında seçilmiş ülkeler ve ülke grupları ile karşılaştırılmıştır. Türkiye’nin çalışma döneminde kaydettiği görece yüksek büyüme ve karbondioksit salımında sergileyemediği iyileşme nedenleriyle 2,0 ℃ hedefine uzak kaldığı sonucuna varıldığından, toplam enerji temininde teknolojik dönüşüme ihtiyacı olduğu değerlendirilmiştir.

Keywords

İklim değişikliği, küresel ısınma, yeşil büyüme, karbon verimliliği

EVALUATION OF TÜRKİYE'S GREEN GROWTH PERFORMANCE BASED ON CARBON EFFICIENCY IN THE CONTEXT OF THE PARIS AGREEMENT

Abstract

Today, it has become clear beyond any doubt that climate change is one of the most serious threats to the future of the Earth. It is also known that climate change is largely triggered by human activities. For this reason, countries party to the Paris Agreement agreed to limit the increase in average surface temperature to 2.0 ℃ compared to the pre-industrialization level by 2100. The green growth model has been adopted to achieve the greenhouse gas reduction required for this target without compromising economic growth. In this study, firstly, the compliance of the green growth model with the Paris Agreement was ensured with the help of the definition of real green growth (RGG). It has been shown that the annual carbon efficiency increase must be 5% in order to achieve the RGG, in other words to reach the 2.0 ℃ target, considering the global economic growth projection and greenhouse gas emission scenario used in this study. Then, Türkiye's RGG performance was compared with selected countries and country groups between 2004-2020. Since it was concluded that Türkiye remained far from the 2.0 ℃ target due to the relatively high growth recorded and the lack of improvement in carbon dioxide emissions during the study period, it was evaluated that Türkiye needs a technological transformation in total energy supply.

Keywords

Climate change, global warming, green growth, carbon productivity

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