EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF EXPORT-LED GROWTH AND DOMESTIC DEMAND-LED GROWTH HYPOTHESES IN EAST ASIA

Year 2017, Issue: 19, 211 - 226, 03.07.2017

Yağmur Sağlam , Hüseyin Avni Egeli

https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.309279

Abstract

The purpose of this study to compare export-led
growth (ELG) and domestic demand-led growth (DLG) hypotheses in East Asia
during 1983-2015 with dynamic panel data analysis. Export-led growth strategy
lost in time its fame in Asia after the economic crisis and policy makers put
in practice some solution packages and tried to move on another growth strategy
(DLG) which does not depend only foreign demand. The second generation unit
root, co-integration and causality tests have been used at the empirical part and
long term coefficients calculated with CCE model (Pesaran, 2006) individually.
According to estimated long term coefficients for each country; in Hong Kong
and Singapore export-led growth hypothesis is dominant but in Macau and South
Korea domestic demand led growth is strictly speaking. Net export and domestic
demand contributes to economic growth together in Japan and economic growth
coefficient of Japan is bigger than the others. The key of the sustainable
growth is to have a good combination of ELG and DLG hypotheses.

Keywords

Export, domestic demand, panel data analysis, East Asia

EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF EXPORT-LED GROWTH AND DOMESTIC DEMAND-LED GROWTH HYPOTHESES IN EAST ASIA

Abstract

Çalışmada Doğu Asya ülkelerinde ihracata dayalı
büyüme hipotezi (ELG) ve iç talep çekişli büyüme hipotezi (DLG) 1983-2015
dönemi için dinamik panel veri analiz yöntemi ile test edilmiştir. ELG hipotezi
ekonomik kriz sonrası zamanla Asya’da popülerliğini yitirmiş ve politika
yapıcılar yabancı talebe bağımlı olmayan başka bir büyüme hipotezini (DLG)
çözüm önerisi olarak uygulamaya koymuşlardır. İkinci nesil birim kök,
eş-bütünleşme ve nedensellik testlerinin kullanıldığı ekonometrik modelde uzun
dönem katsayıları Pesaran (2006) tarafından geliştirilen CCE modeli ile her bir
ülke için ayrı ayrı hesaplanmıştır. Elde edilen uygulama sonuçlarına göre; Hong
Kong ve Singapur’da ihracat dayalı büyüme hipotezi kabul edilirken Güney Kore
ile Makao’da iç talep çekişli büyüme hipotezi dominanttır. Japonya’da net
ihracat ve iç talep, ekonomik büyümeye birlikte katkı yapmaktadır. Bu nedenle
Japonya’nın ekonomik büyüme katsayısı diğerlerinden daha büyüktür.
Sürdürülebilir büyümenin anahtarı ELG ve DLG hipotezlerini birlikte içeren bir
politika uygulamaktan geçmektedir.

Keywords

İhracat, iç talep, panel veri analizi, Doğu Asya

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