ARAP BAHARI COĞRAFYASINDAN GELEN HABERLERİN CDS PRİMLERİ ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Year 2018, Issue: 20, 1 - 16, 10.01.2018

İbrahim Bozkurt , Muhammed Veysel Kaya

https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.292772

Cited By: 10

Abstract

Bir ülkenin CDS primleri, ekonomik ve finansal gelişmelerle birlikte yatırımcıların risk algısına etki edebilecek
nitelikte olan siyasi, askeri ve toplumsal olaylardan da olumlu ya da olumsuz şekilde etkilenir. Yatırımcı risk
algısına etki eden olaylardan biri de global olaylar ve global olaylardan kaynaklanan global risklerdir. Global
risk, uluslararası nitelikteki olayların finansal araçların getirisinde meydana getireceği değişimler olarak
tanımlanmaktadır. Bu bağlamda, bu çalışma, Arap Baharı coğrafyasında yer alan ve Türkiye’ye sınır olan
ülkelerden Irak, İran ve Suriye ile ilgili iyi ve kötü haberlerin, Türkiye’nin 5 yıl vadeli CDS primleri üzerindeki
etkisini incelemeyi amaç edinmiştir. Olay çalışması yönteminin kullanıldığı çalışmada; 2010-2013 dönemine
ait, Irak, İran ve Suriye ile ilgili haberler ile Türkiye’nin 5 yıl vadeli CDS primleri veri olarak kullanılmıştır. Çalışma
sonucunda; sadece İran’a ait hem iyi hem de kötü haberlerin, Türkiye’nin CDS primlerine diğer bir ifadeyle
Türkiye’nin ülke riskine etki ettiği ortaya konulmuştur. Edindiği amaç ve ele aldığı konuya ilişkin olarak ortaya
koyduğu bulguları ile çalışmanın ilgili yazına önemli katkılar sağladığı düşünülmektedir.

Keywords

CDS, Ülke Riski, Uluslararası Haberler, Anormal Getiri

THE EFFECT OF THE NEWS THAT COME FROM THE ARAB SPRING REGION ON CDS PREMIUMS: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

Abstract

The credit default swap spreads of a country are affected positively or negatively by economic and financial
headwinds in addition to political, military and social events which have an impact on investors’ risk
perception. One of the events, which affect the investors’ risk perception, is also global events and
consequent global risks. Global risk is defined as the changes in the returns of the financial instruments which
will be caused by international developments. In this context, this study aims to analyse the effect of good
and bad news related to Iraq Iran and Syria on Turkey’s 5-year term CDS premiums. In this study that used
event study methodology, the news related to Iraq Iran and Syria and Turkey’s 5-year term CDS premiums
were used as data. As a result of this study, it was found that only the good and bad news related to Iran had
an effect on Turkey’s CDS premiums, in other words, Turkey’s sovereign risk. It is thought that this study
contributes to the related literature by revealing findings regarding its subject and purpose

Keywords

Credit Default Swap, Sovereign Risk, İnternational news, Abnormal Return

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