SHORT AND LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF INCOME AND INTEREST RATE ON HOUSE PRICES

Year 2018, Prof. Dr. Harun TERZI Special Issue, 141 - 152, 19.09.2018

Fatma Kolcu , Nebiye Yamak

https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.439535

Cited By: 12

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to
investigate the short and long-run effects of income and interest rate for
housing loan on house prices in Turkey. The data used in this study are monthly
and cover the period of 2010:01-2017:09. In this study, the long run
relationships between the variables were investigated by using the Autoregressive
Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach developed by Pesaran and Shin
(1999). The results of ARDL bounds testing identify the presence of the
long-run relationship between housing prices, income and interest rate for housing
loan. The findings indicate that income has a positive effect on housing prices
in the long-run. Interest rate for housing loan does not have any effect on
housing prices in the long run. However, interest rate for housing loan has a
negative effect in the short-run.

Keywords

House prices, Income, Interest rate for housing loan, ARDL

GELİR VE FAİZ ORANLARININ KONUT FİYATLARI ÜZERİNDEKİ KISA VE UZUN DÖNEM ETKİLERİ

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye
örneğinde gelir ve konut kredisi faiz oranlarının konut fiyatları üzerindeki
kısa ve uzun dönem etkilerini araştırmaktır. Çalışmada kullanılan veriler aylık
olup 2010:01-2017:09 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Çalışmada, değişkenler arasındaki
uzun dönem ilişkiler Pesaran ve Shin (1999) tarafından geliştirilen Gecikmesi
Dağıtılmış Otoregresif (ARDL) sınır testi yaklaşımı kullanılarak
araştırılmıştır. ARDL sınır testi sonuçlarına göre, konut fiyatları ile gelir
ve konut kredisi faiz oranı arasında uzun dönem ilişkinin varlığı tespit
edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, uzun dönemde gelirin konut fiyatları üzerinde
pozitif etki yarattığını göstermiştir. Konut kredisi faiz oranının ise uzun
dönemde konut fiyatları üzerinde etkili olmadığı belirlenmiştir. Bununla
birlikte, kısa dönemde konut kredisi faiz oranlarının konut fiyatları üzerinde negatif
etki yarattığı tespit edilmiştir.

Keywords

Konut fiyatları, Gelir, Konut kredisi faiz oranı, ARDL

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