THE DEVELOPMENT DISPARITY MODEL: A DYNAMIC APPROACH TO INTERNATIONAL TRADE

Year 2021, , 22 - 44, 23.08.2021

Tayfun Tuncay Tosun

https://doi.org/10.30711/utead.950663

Abstract

The development disparity model focuses on the difference in the trade yields of countries by considering the nature of the trade balance in the advanced sectors. This paper employs the non-linear Artificial Neural Network technique for ten developing countries in the analysis section. According to the analysis outcomes, while China and Thailand's aggregate international trade yields have an ascending tendency, Indonesia, Paraguay, Colombia, Turkey, Argentina, and Mexico's aggregate trade yields exhibit a drastic descending trend. On the other hand, the tendency of aggregate trade yields in India and Brazil is generally negative, yet this tendency is decreasing inconsistently.

Keywords

International Trade Theory, The Development Disparity, The Dynamic Effects of Trade Balance, Artificial Neural Network

GELİŞİM EŞİTSİZLİĞİ MODELİ: ULUSLARARASI TİCARETE DİNAMİK BİR YAKLAŞIM

Abstract

Gelişim farkı modeli, gelişmiş sektörlerdeki ticaret dengesinin niteliğini göz önüne alarak ülkelerin ticaret kazançları arasındaki farklılığa odaklanmaktadır. Analiz bölümünde on gelişmekte olan ülke için doğrusal olmayan Yapay Sinir Ağı tekniği kullanılmıştır. Analiz sonuçlarına göre, Çin ve Tayland'ın toplam uluslararası ticaret getirileri artan bir eğilim gösterirken, Endonezya, Paraguay, Kolombiya, Türkiye, Arjantin ve Meksika'nın toplam ticaret getirileri sert bir düşüş eğilimi sergilemektedir. Diğer taraftan, Hindistan ve Brezilya'da toplam ticaret getirilerinin eğilimi genel olarak negatiftir, ancak bu eğilim tutarsız bir şekilde azalmaktadır.

Keywords

Uluslararası Ticaret Teorisi, Gelişim Eşitsizliği, Ticaret Bilançosunun Dinamik Etkileri, Yapay Sinir Ağı

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