Holt'un Doğrusal Yöntemi ile Net İşletme Sermayesi Tahminlemesi: Türkiye'den Kanıtlar

Year 2023, Volume: 13 Issue: 2, 330 - 341, 24.10.2023

Tolga Tuzcuoğlu

Abstract

Bu araştırma makalesi, işletmelerin optimal net işletme sermayesi seviyelerini geleceğe yönelik bir
perspektiften proaktif olarak izlemelerine olanak sağlamak amacıyla tahmine dayalı bir metodoloji
sunmaktadır. Buna ek olarak çalışma, firmaların operasyonel hedeflerine uygun ideal net işletme
sermayelerini belirlemelerine destek olmayı amaçlamaktadır. Çalışma kapsamında Türkiye'deki
BIST-30 şirketlerinin 2016 ikinci çeyreğinden 2023 ikinci çeyreğine kadar net işletme sermayesi
verileri analiz edilmiştir. Çalışma, Türkiye'nin halka açık en büyük 24 şirketinin hem negatif hem de
pozitif değerleri kapsayan çok çeşitli net işletme sermayesi değerlerine sahip olduğunu ortaya
çıkarmıştır. Gelecek için öngörülen trend, net işletme sermayesi değerlerinin önümüzdeki dört
çeyrekte hem benzer eğilimde devam edeceğini hem de değişikliklere uğrayacağını göstermektedir.

Keywords

İşletme Finansı, Net İşletme Sermayesi Yönetimi, Finansal Tahminleme, Zaman Serisi Analizi, Holt'un Doğrusal Modeli

Ethical Statement

Araştırma ikincil verilere sahip bir çalışma olduğu için etik beyana gerek yoktur.

Net Working Capital Prediction with Holt's Linear Method: Evidence from Turkey

Abstract

This research paper introduces a predictive methodology for forecasting net working capital to allow
companies to proactively monitor their optimal net working capital levels from a future-oriented
perspective. Additionally, it aims to assist organizations in identifying their ideal net working capital
that aligns with their operational goals. The analysis of the net working capital data for the BIST-30
corporations in Turkey from the second quarter of 2016 to 2023 revealed that Turkey's 24 largest
publicly traded companies had diverse net working capital values, encompassing both negative and
positive figures. The projected future trends suggested that net working capital values will persist and
undergo modifications during the following four quarters within the expected timeframe.

Keywords

Corporate Finance, Net Working Capital Management, Financial Forecasting, Time Series Analysis, Holt's Linear Model

Ethical Statement

Since the research is a study with secondary data, there is no need for an ethical statement.

References

• Afrifa, G. A., Tingbani, I., and Adesina, O. O. (2022). Stochastic frontier modelling of working capital efficiency across Europe. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 184, 122012. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2022.122012
• Aktas, N., Croci, E., and Petmezas, D. (2015). Is working capital management value-enhancing? Evidence from firm performance and investments. Journal of Corporate Finance.
• Apak, S., Açıkgöz, A. F., Erbay, E. R. and Tuncer, G. (2016). Cash vs. Net Working Capital as Strategic Tools for the Long-term Relation between Bank Credits and Liquidity: Inequalities in Turkey. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 235, 648–655. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2016.11.046
• Banerjee, P., and Deb, S. G. (2023). Capital investment, working capital management, and firm performance: Role of managerial ability in US logistics industry. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 176, 103224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tre.2023.103224
• Baños-Caballero, S., García-Teruel, P. J., and Martínez-Solano, P. (2019). Net operating working capital and firm value: A cross-country analysis. BRQ Business Research Quarterly, S2340943618300963. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.brq.2019.03.003
• Baños-Caballero, Sonia and García-Teruel, Pedro and Solano, Pedro. (2010). Working capital management in SMEs. Accounting and Finance. 50. 511-527. 10.1111/j.1467-629X.2009.00331.x.
• Barros, V., Falcão, P. F. and Sarmento, J. M. (2022). Are more sustainable firms able to operate with lower working capital requirements? Finance Research Letters, 46, 102407. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2021.102407
• Ben-Nasr, H. (2016). State and foreign ownership and the value of working capital management. Journal of Corporate Finance, 41, 217–240. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2016.09.002
• Boisjoly, R. P., Conine, T. E. and McDonald, M. B. (2020). Working capital management: Financial and valuation impacts. Journal of Business Research, 108, 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2019.09.025
• Çelik, R., Bilen, B. and Bilen, Ö. (2016). The Impacts of Changes in Macro-Economic Data on Net Working Capital: The Case of Turkey's Industrial Sector. Procedia Economics and Finance, 38, 122–134. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(16)30184-8
• Chambers, N. and Cifter, A. (2022). Working capital management and firm performance in the hospitality and tourism industry. International Journal of Hospitality Management, 102, 103144. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhm.2022.103144
• Deloof, M. (2003), Does Working Capital Management Affect Profitability of Belgian Firms?. Journal of Business Finance Accounting, 30: 573-588. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5957.00008
• Dhole, S., Mishra, S. and Pal, A. M. (2019). Efficient working capital management, financial constraints and firm value: A text-based analysis. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 58, 101212. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2019.101212
• Holt, C. C. (2004). Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponentially weighted moving averages. International Journal of Forecasting, 20, 5–13.
• Hyndman, R.J. and Athanasopoulos, G. (2018) Forecasting: principles and practice, 2nd edition, OTexts: Melbourne, Australia.
• Hassan, M. K., Aysan, A. F., Kayani, U. N. and Choudhury, T. (2023). Working capital as a firm performance savior? Evidence from Scandinavian countries. Research in International Business and Finance, 65, 101959. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2023.101959
• Jędrzejczak-Gas, J. (2017). Net Working Capital Management Strategies in the Construction Enterprises Listed on the New Connect Market. Procedia Engineering, 182, 306–313. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2017.03.098
• Jiang, W., Wu, X., Gong, Y., Yu, W. and Zhong, X. (2020). Holt–Winters smoothing enhanced by fruit fly optimization algorithm to forecast monthly electricity consumption. Energy, 193, 116779. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2019.116779
• Maia, A. L. S. and De Carvalho, F. D. A. T. (2011). Holt's exponential smoothing and neural network models for forecasting interval-valued time series. International Journal of Forecasting, 27(3), 740–759. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.02.012
• Public Disclosure Platform (2023). Financial Statements [database]. https://www.kap.org.tr/
• Sawarni, K. S., Narayanasamy, S. and Padhan, P. C. (2023). Impact of earnings management on working capital management efficiency. Finance Research Letters, 54, 103778. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2023.103778
• Tarkom, A. (2022). Impact of COVID-19 exposure on working capital management: The moderating effect of investment opportunities and government incentives. Finance Research Letters, 47, 102666. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2021.102666
• Tarkom, A. and Ujah, N. U. (2023). Global policy uncertainty and working capital management: Does national culture matter? Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 196, 122869. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2023.122869
• Tsuruta, D. (2019). Working capital management during the global financial crisis: Evidence from Japan. Japan and the World Economy, 49, 206–219. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.japwor.2019.01.002