FROM PROTECTIONISM TO TRADE WARS: THEIR EFFECTS OBSERVED THROUGH FINANCIAL MARKETS

Year 2020, , 1 - 19, 01.03.2020

Derya Yılmaz

https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.606693

Abstract

Even the outcomes of free trade are well known and accepted widely in economic literature, protectionism has never totally lost its ground. Today, the protectionist trade policies of the US are transformed into a trade war. The costs accrued by the outcomes of a trade war would be extensive. These costs have been materialized via 2018 tariff hikes to a certain extent but the remaining impacts–in case of an escalated trade war- could be excessive. The trade war would also lead to certain consequences via financial markets. The present study aimed to analyze how protectionism evolved into a trade war and its ample effects that would be observed through financial markets. The study demonstrated that global uncertainty would scale up as a result of trade conflicts between nations. The rising global uncertainty would have remarkable consequences for both developed and developing countries via financial markets. 

Keywords

Protectionism, Trade War, Tariffs, Uncertainty, Financial Markets

KORUMACILIKTAN TİCARET SAVAŞLARINA: FİNANSAL PİYASALAR ÜZERİNDEN ETKİLER

Abstract

Serbest ticaretin üstünlüğü ekonomi yazınında ne kadar kabul edilmiş olsa da korumacılık hiç bir zaman tam olarak ortadan kaybolmamıştır. Bugün ise ABD’nin uyguladığı korumacı ticaret politikası ticaret savaşlarına evrilmiştir. Ticaret savaşlarının maliyeti oldukça fazladır. 2018 boyunca uygulanan tariflerin maliyetleri zaten ortaya çıkmıştır ancak ticaret savaşının derinleşmesi ile birlikte çok daha fazla maliyetin ortaya çıkacağı beklenmektedir. Ticaret savaşının bu maliyetlerinin yanında finansal piyasalar üzerinden maliyetleri de olacaktır. Bu çalışma korumacı ticaret politikasının ticaret savaşlarına nasıl evrildiğini açıkladıktan sonra ticaret savaşının finansal piyasalar üzerinden ne gibi maliyetler yüklediğini analiz etmektedir. Çalışmada ulaşılan sonuçlara göre ticari gerilimler arttıkça belirsizlik artmaktadır. Artan belirsizlik ise finansal piyasalar üzerinden hem gelişmiş hem de gelişmekte olan ülkelere ilave maliyetler yüklemektedir

Keywords

Korumacılık, Ticaret Savaşı, Tarifeler, Belirsizlik, Finansal Piyasalar

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