Research Article
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TURKISH ECONOMY IN THE BELT ROAD INITIATIVE: A GRAVITY MODEL FOR INTERNATIONAL TRADE

Year 2022, Volume: 20 Issue: 4, 1 - 23, 31.12.2022

Alper Yılmaz

https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1147336

Abstract

In this paper, we attempt to analyze the determinants of international trade flows between Turkey and countries in the One Belt One Road (OBOR) project and their implications for the Turkish economy through the estimation of panel data using a gravity model. In particular, we employ the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimation procedure for the nine OBOR nations from the period 2000-2021. This estimator is more robust than other methods such as pooled, fixed, and random models and it is free from the problems of autocorrelation, asymptotic bias, multicollinearity, and heteroscedasticty in the residuals for estimation and inference. First, panel unit root tests show that conducted variables are stationary at the conventional level. Second, the gravity estimations revealed that remoteness, scale, land endowment variables and, dummies (Preferential Trade Agreement and Border) in the gravity model have a positive impact, while GDP Distance and Capital Endowment have an inverse effect on trade flows. Only the language dummy is statistically insignificant. For policy purposes, we concluded that it would be better to promote trade flows with the OBOR countries.

Keywords

China Asia New Silk Road One Belt One Road Prpgram

Supporting Institution

Yok

Project Number

Yok

Thanks

-

References

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  • Alon, I., Chen, S. & Mandolfo, M. (2019) ‘’Supply Chain–Marketing Integration: How do European SMEs Go To China Via The New Silk Road’’, Bussiness Process Management Journal, 25, 368–378.
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  • Anderson, J. E. & Yotov, Y. (2012) ‘’Gold Standard Gravity’’, NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper, 17835.
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  • Arvis, J. & Shepherd, B. (2013) ‘’The Poisson Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator: A Solution to the “Adding Up” Problem in Gravity Models’’, Applied Economic Letters, 20 (6), 515-519.
  • Arguello, R. (2000) ‘’ Economic Integration; An Overview of Basic Economic Theory and Other Related Issues’’, Serie documentos Borradores de investigation, No 3 (Mazo 2000) ISSN: 0124-4396, Impreso en Colombia.
  • Athari, A. & Ejazi, E. (2020) ‘’ The Belt And Road Initiative in The Shadow Of Competition Between China And The US’’, BRIQ, 1 (4), 43-54.
  • Aybar S. & Güler, M. (2018) ‘’China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment Along “Belt and Road Initiative’’, Florya Chronicles of Political Economy, 4 (1), 89-108.
  • Azer, Ö., Min, W. & Ülker, Y. (2021) ‘’ The Strategic Importance Of The “Belt And Road Initiative” Connectivity With The Middle Corridor Program in Turkey’’, Journal of Security Sciences, 10 (2), 543-566.
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  • Bruni, M. (2019) ‘’The Belt and Road Initiative: Demographic trends, labour markets and welfare systems of member countries’’, Econ Stor, GLO Discussion Paper, No. 300.
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  • Geeraerts, G. (2019) ‘’Europe and China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Growing Concerns, More Strategy’’, Egmont Institute Security Policy Brief, 118, http://www.jstor.com/stable/resrep21398 (09.07.2022).
  • Gong, X. (2020) ‘’ China’s Economic Statecraft: The Belt and Road in Southeast Asia and the Impact on the Indo-Pacific’’, Security Challenges, 16 (3), 39-46.
  • Guoqiang, C. (2015) ‘’ The Belt and Road: A Mission to Benefit Two-Thirds of the World’’, Journal of International Relations and Sustainable Development, Summer 2015, No:4, 154-161.
  • Gül, H. ve Tatoğlu, F. (2019) ‘’An Analyses of Tourism Demand With Panel Gravity Model’’, Tourism Academic Journal, 01 (2019), 49-60.
  • Haveman, J & Hummels, D. (2004) ‘’Alternative hypotheses and the volume of trade: the gravity equation and the extent of specialization’’, Canadian Journal of Economics, 37 (1), 199-218.
  • Im, K. S., Peseran, H. & Shin, Y. (2003) ‘’Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panel’’, Journal of Econometrics 115 (2003), 53 – 74.
  • Jielin, Z & Lu, C. (2019) ‘’ Implications of «One Belt, One Road» Strategy for China and Eurasia’’, Vestnik RUDN, International Relations, 19 (1), 77-88.
  • Kabir, M., Salim, R. & Mawali, N. (2017) ‘’The Gravity Model And Trade Flows: Recent Developments In Econometric Modeling and Empirical Evidence’’, Economic Analysis and Policy 56 (2017), 60–71.
  • Karpathiotaki, P., Tian, Y., Zhou, Y. and Huang, X. (2021) ‘’China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Contributions to connectivity’’, Christopher Findlay, Somkiat Tangkitvanich (eds.), New Dimensions of Connectivity in the Asia-Pacific, ANU Press, 41-88.
  • Küçükcan, T. (2017) ‘’The Belt and Road Initiative and Middle Eastern Politics: Challenges Ahead’’, Insight Turkey, 19 (3), 83-91.
  • Koçakoğlu, M. A. (2021) ‘’Belt And Road Initiative and Turkey China Relationships Through Soft Power Concept’’, International Journal of Society Researchers, 18 (39), 750-776.
  • Krukowska, M. (2016) ‘’China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ Strategy and Its Implications for The Global World Order’’, International Business and Global Economy, 35 (1), 157–168.
  • Levin, A., Lin, C. & Chu, C.S.J. (2002) ‘’Unit Root Tests In Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite-Sample Properties’’, Journal of Econometrics, 108, (2002), 1–24.
  • Li, B. (2020) ‘’Export Effect of Trade Facilitation in Asian “Belt and Road Coastal Countries on China’s Cross-border E-commerce’’, Journal of Coastal Research, 104, 628-632.
  • Linnemann, H. (1966) ‘’An Econometric Study of International Trade Flows’’, North Holland Publishing Company, Amsterdam.
  • Maddala, G.S. & Wu, S. (1999) ‘’A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests With Panel Data and A New Simple Test’’, Oxford Bulletin Of Economics and Statistics, Special Issue (1999) 0305-9049.
  • Manning, W. & Mullahy, J. (2001) ‘’Estimating Log Models: To Transform or Not To Transform’’ Journal of Health Economics, 20 (2001), 461–494.
  • Marinov, E. (2014) ‘’ Economic Integration Theories and The Developing Counties’’, ISBN 978-960-9416-07-8, South-East European Research Centre, MPRA Paper No. 63310, 164-177.
  • Martin, W. and Pham, C. (2015) ‘’Estimating the Gravity Model When Zero Trade Flows Are Frequent and Economically Determined’’,
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  • Mikic, M. (1998) ‘’The theory of economic integration’’, Chapter 14, International Trade, 441-465, Texts in Economics, Palgrave, London.
  • Minghao, Z. (2015) ‘’China’s New Silk Road Initiative’’, Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) Working Papers 15, ISBN 978-88-98650-61-3.
  • Mobley, T. (2019) ‘’The Belt and Road Initiative: Insights from China’s Backyard’’, Strategic Studies Quarterly, 13 (3), 52-72.
  • Motta, V. (2019) ‘’Estimating Poisson Pseudo Maximum-Likelihood Rather Than Log-Linear Model of A Log Transformed Dependent Variable’’, RAUSP Management Journal, 54 (4), 508-518.
  • Mulabadic, A. & Yaşar, P. (2021) ‘’Gravity Model–Based Export Potential-An Application to Turkey’’, World Bank Group Policy Research Working Paper, 9557.
  • Nasrullah, M, Chang, L., Khan, K., Rizwanullah M. and Ishfaq, M. (2020) ‘’Determinants of forest product group trade by gravity model approach: A case study of China, Forest Policy and Economics 113 (2020), 102117.
  • Nurmuhammedov, N. (2017) ‘’China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and Its Geostrategic Importance In Terms of Belt and Road Initiatives’’, Afro Eurasian Studies Journal, 6 (1-2), Spring&Fall 2017, 34-64.
  • Pfaffermayr, M. (2020) ‘’Constrained Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimation Of Structural Gravity Models’’, International Economics, 161 (2020), 188–198.
  • Pradhan, R. (2017) ‘’China’s Rise in Central Asia The New Silk Road Economıc Belt’’, The Journal Of International Issues, 21 (3), 50-61.
  • Prehn, S., Brümmer, B. & Glauben, T. (2015) ‘’Gravity Model Estimation: Fixed Effects vs. Random Intercept Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood’’, Applied Economics Letters, 23 (11), 761-764.
  • Putten, F. P. & Meijnders, M. (2015) ‘’China, Europe and the Maritime Silk Road’’, (Part Title: The Silk Road as a Strategic Framework), Clingendael Institute, 24-32.
  • Putten, F. P., Seaman, J., Huotari, M., Ekman, A. and Iglesias, M. (2016) ‘’ Europe and China’s new silk roads’’, A Report by the European Think-tank Network on China (ETNC) December 2016, https://www.iai.it/sites/default/files/2016_etnc_report.pdf (06.06.2022).
  • Qoraboyev, I. (2018) ‘’ One Belt, One Road: A Comparative Regionalism Approach’’, Cheng Y., Song L., Huang L. (eds) The Belt & Road Initiative in the Global Arena. Palgrave Macmillan, Singapore, 103-114.
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Year 2022, Volume: 20 Issue: 4, 1 - 23, 31.12.2022

Alper Yılmaz

https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1147336

Abstract

Project Number

Yok

References

  • Acar, Z., Bentyn, Z. & Kocaoğlu, B. (2015) “Turkey as a Regional Logistic Hub in Promotion of Reviving Ancient Silk Route between Europe and Asia,” Journal of Management, Marketing and Logistic, 2 (2), 94-109.
  • Alon, I., Chen, S. & Mandolfo, M. (2019) ‘’Supply Chain–Marketing Integration: How do European SMEs Go To China Via The New Silk Road’’, Bussiness Process Management Journal, 25, 368–378.
  • Anderson J. E. (2011) ‘’ The Gravity Model’’, Annual Review of Economics, 3 (2011), 133-160.
  • Anderson, J. E. & Yotov, Y. (2012) ‘’Gold Standard Gravity’’, NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper, 17835.
  • Antonucci, D. & Manzocchi, S. (2006) ‘’Does Turkey Have A Special Trade Relation With The EU? A Gravity Model Approach’’, Economic Systems 30 (2006) 157–169.
  • Arnon, A. Spivak, A. & Weinblatt, J. (1996) ‘’The Potential for Trade Between Israel, the Palestinian and Jordan’’, World Economy, 19, 113-134.
  • Arvis, J. & Shepherd, B. (2013) ‘’The Poisson Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator: A Solution to the “Adding Up” Problem in Gravity Models’’, Applied Economic Letters, 20 (6), 515-519.
  • Arguello, R. (2000) ‘’ Economic Integration; An Overview of Basic Economic Theory and Other Related Issues’’, Serie documentos Borradores de investigation, No 3 (Mazo 2000) ISSN: 0124-4396, Impreso en Colombia.
  • Athari, A. & Ejazi, E. (2020) ‘’ The Belt And Road Initiative in The Shadow Of Competition Between China And The US’’, BRIQ, 1 (4), 43-54.
  • Aybar S. & Güler, M. (2018) ‘’China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment Along “Belt and Road Initiative’’, Florya Chronicles of Political Economy, 4 (1), 89-108.
  • Azer, Ö., Min, W. & Ülker, Y. (2021) ‘’ The Strategic Importance Of The “Belt And Road Initiative” Connectivity With The Middle Corridor Program in Turkey’’, Journal of Security Sciences, 10 (2), 543-566.
  • Balassa, B. (1961) ‘’The Theory of Economic Integration’’, Routledge Revivals Edition (2013), ISBN 9780415681247, Taylor & Francis Group, London.
  • Balogh, J. M. (2015) ‘’Investigating The Effect of Geographical Distances and Cultural Proximity On The Hungarian Wine Trade’’, Society and Economy, 37 (4), 513-529.
  • Barton, D. (2015) ‘’Building the Right Silk Road: China and the ‘One Belt, One Road’ Initiative’’, Journal of International Relations and Sustainable Development, Summer 2015, No:4, 74-83.
  • Bruni, M. (2019) ‘’The Belt and Road Initiative: Demographic trends, labour markets and welfare systems of member countries’’, Econ Stor, GLO Discussion Paper, No. 300.
  • Callahan, W. (2016) ‘’China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the New Eurasian Order’’, Norwegian Institute for International Affairs (NUPI), Policy Brief 22 /2016.
  • Cai, P. (2017) ‘’Understanding China’s Belt and Road Initiative’’, Lowy Institute for International Policy, https://think-asia.org/bitstream/handle/11540/6810/Understanding_Chinas_Belt_and_Road_Initiative _WEB_1.pdf? sequence=1
  • Choi I. (2001) ‘’Unit root tests for panel data’’, Journal of International Money and Finance, 20 (2001) 249–272.
  • Chung, C. P. & Voon, T. J. (2017) ‘’China's Maritime Silk Road Initiative’’, Asian Survey, 57 (3), 416-449.
  • Clarke, M. (2017) ‘’The Belt and Road Initiative: China’s New Strategy’’, Asia Policy Review, 24 (2017), 71-79.
  • Çakılcı, U. B. (2021) ‘’Belt and Road Projects and Effects on Turkey’’, Fiscaoeconomia 5 (1), 87-98.
  • Deardorff, A.V. (1995) ‘’Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neo-Classic World?’’, NBER Working Paper, 5377.
  • Deng, Y. (2018) ‘’How China's Belt and Road Is Reordering Asia’’, Harvard International Review, 39 (4), 30-35.
  • Djankov, S. (2016) ‘’The rationale behind China´s Belt and Road Initiative’’, Extracted from Djankov, Simeon and Sean Miner (Eds.). China´s Belt and Road Initiative. Motives, Scope and Challenges. Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  • Dossani, R., Bouey, J., & Zhu, K. (2020) ‘’Demystifying the Belt and Road Initiative’’, RAND Working paper WR-1338, Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation.
  • Fang, X. (2015) ‘’The Belt and Road initiative: connecting China and Central Europe’’, International Issues & Slovak Foreign Policy Affairs, 24 (3), 3-14.
  • Francois, J. & Manchin, M. (2007) ‘’Institutions, Infrastructure, and Trade’’, Policy Research Working Paper; No. 4152, World Bank. Gervais, A. (2015) ’’Trade and Growth: A Gravity Approach’’, South Asia Economic Journal, 82 (2), 453-470.
  • Geeraerts, G. (2019) ‘’Europe and China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Growing Concerns, More Strategy’’, Egmont Institute Security Policy Brief, 118, http://www.jstor.com/stable/resrep21398 (09.07.2022).
  • Gong, X. (2020) ‘’ China’s Economic Statecraft: The Belt and Road in Southeast Asia and the Impact on the Indo-Pacific’’, Security Challenges, 16 (3), 39-46.
  • Guoqiang, C. (2015) ‘’ The Belt and Road: A Mission to Benefit Two-Thirds of the World’’, Journal of International Relations and Sustainable Development, Summer 2015, No:4, 154-161.
  • Gül, H. ve Tatoğlu, F. (2019) ‘’An Analyses of Tourism Demand With Panel Gravity Model’’, Tourism Academic Journal, 01 (2019), 49-60.
  • Haveman, J & Hummels, D. (2004) ‘’Alternative hypotheses and the volume of trade: the gravity equation and the extent of specialization’’, Canadian Journal of Economics, 37 (1), 199-218.
  • Im, K. S., Peseran, H. & Shin, Y. (2003) ‘’Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panel’’, Journal of Econometrics 115 (2003), 53 – 74.
  • Jielin, Z & Lu, C. (2019) ‘’ Implications of «One Belt, One Road» Strategy for China and Eurasia’’, Vestnik RUDN, International Relations, 19 (1), 77-88.
  • Kabir, M., Salim, R. & Mawali, N. (2017) ‘’The Gravity Model And Trade Flows: Recent Developments In Econometric Modeling and Empirical Evidence’’, Economic Analysis and Policy 56 (2017), 60–71.
  • Karpathiotaki, P., Tian, Y., Zhou, Y. and Huang, X. (2021) ‘’China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Contributions to connectivity’’, Christopher Findlay, Somkiat Tangkitvanich (eds.), New Dimensions of Connectivity in the Asia-Pacific, ANU Press, 41-88.
  • Küçükcan, T. (2017) ‘’The Belt and Road Initiative and Middle Eastern Politics: Challenges Ahead’’, Insight Turkey, 19 (3), 83-91.
  • Koçakoğlu, M. A. (2021) ‘’Belt And Road Initiative and Turkey China Relationships Through Soft Power Concept’’, International Journal of Society Researchers, 18 (39), 750-776.
  • Krukowska, M. (2016) ‘’China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ Strategy and Its Implications for The Global World Order’’, International Business and Global Economy, 35 (1), 157–168.
  • Levin, A., Lin, C. & Chu, C.S.J. (2002) ‘’Unit Root Tests In Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite-Sample Properties’’, Journal of Econometrics, 108, (2002), 1–24.
  • Li, B. (2020) ‘’Export Effect of Trade Facilitation in Asian “Belt and Road Coastal Countries on China’s Cross-border E-commerce’’, Journal of Coastal Research, 104, 628-632.
  • Linnemann, H. (1966) ‘’An Econometric Study of International Trade Flows’’, North Holland Publishing Company, Amsterdam.
  • Maddala, G.S. & Wu, S. (1999) ‘’A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests With Panel Data and A New Simple Test’’, Oxford Bulletin Of Economics and Statistics, Special Issue (1999) 0305-9049.
  • Manning, W. & Mullahy, J. (2001) ‘’Estimating Log Models: To Transform or Not To Transform’’ Journal of Health Economics, 20 (2001), 461–494.
  • Marinov, E. (2014) ‘’ Economic Integration Theories and The Developing Counties’’, ISBN 978-960-9416-07-8, South-East European Research Centre, MPRA Paper No. 63310, 164-177.
  • Martin, W. and Pham, C. (2015) ‘’Estimating the Gravity Model When Zero Trade Flows Are Frequent and Economically Determined’’,
  • World Bank Development Research Group, Agriculture and Rural Development Team, Policy Research Working Paper 7308. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/695631467998785933/pdf/WPS7308.pdf (17.06.2022).
  • Mengzi, F. (2019) ‘’The Belt and Road Initiative from Three Theoretical Perspectives’’, CIR March/April 2019, 29 (2), 1-33.
  • Mikic, M. (1998) ‘’The theory of economic integration’’, Chapter 14, International Trade, 441-465, Texts in Economics, Palgrave, London.
  • Minghao, Z. (2015) ‘’China’s New Silk Road Initiative’’, Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) Working Papers 15, ISBN 978-88-98650-61-3.
  • Mobley, T. (2019) ‘’The Belt and Road Initiative: Insights from China’s Backyard’’, Strategic Studies Quarterly, 13 (3), 52-72.
  • Motta, V. (2019) ‘’Estimating Poisson Pseudo Maximum-Likelihood Rather Than Log-Linear Model of A Log Transformed Dependent Variable’’, RAUSP Management Journal, 54 (4), 508-518.
  • Mulabadic, A. & Yaşar, P. (2021) ‘’Gravity Model–Based Export Potential-An Application to Turkey’’, World Bank Group Policy Research Working Paper, 9557.
  • Nasrullah, M, Chang, L., Khan, K., Rizwanullah M. and Ishfaq, M. (2020) ‘’Determinants of forest product group trade by gravity model approach: A case study of China, Forest Policy and Economics 113 (2020), 102117.
  • Nurmuhammedov, N. (2017) ‘’China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and Its Geostrategic Importance In Terms of Belt and Road Initiatives’’, Afro Eurasian Studies Journal, 6 (1-2), Spring&Fall 2017, 34-64.
  • Pfaffermayr, M. (2020) ‘’Constrained Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimation Of Structural Gravity Models’’, International Economics, 161 (2020), 188–198.
  • Pradhan, R. (2017) ‘’China’s Rise in Central Asia The New Silk Road Economıc Belt’’, The Journal Of International Issues, 21 (3), 50-61.
  • Prehn, S., Brümmer, B. & Glauben, T. (2015) ‘’Gravity Model Estimation: Fixed Effects vs. Random Intercept Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood’’, Applied Economics Letters, 23 (11), 761-764.
  • Putten, F. P. & Meijnders, M. (2015) ‘’China, Europe and the Maritime Silk Road’’, (Part Title: The Silk Road as a Strategic Framework), Clingendael Institute, 24-32.
  • Putten, F. P., Seaman, J., Huotari, M., Ekman, A. and Iglesias, M. (2016) ‘’ Europe and China’s new silk roads’’, A Report by the European Think-tank Network on China (ETNC) December 2016, https://www.iai.it/sites/default/files/2016_etnc_report.pdf (06.06.2022).
  • Qoraboyev, I. (2018) ‘’ One Belt, One Road: A Comparative Regionalism Approach’’, Cheng Y., Song L., Huang L. (eds) The Belt & Road Initiative in the Global Arena. Palgrave Macmillan, Singapore, 103-114.
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There are 80 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Alper Yılmaz 0000-0002-1253-7097

Project Number Yok
Publication Date December 31, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2022 Volume: 20 Issue: 4

Cite

APA Yılmaz, A. (2022). TURKISH ECONOMY IN THE BELT ROAD INITIATIVE: A GRAVITY MODEL FOR INTERNATIONAL TRADE. Journal of Management and Economics Research, 20(4), 1-23. https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1147336
AMA Yılmaz A. TURKISH ECONOMY IN THE BELT ROAD INITIATIVE: A GRAVITY MODEL FOR INTERNATIONAL TRADE. Journal of Management and Economics Research. December 2022;20(4):1-23. doi:10.11611/yead.1147336
Chicago Yılmaz, Alper. “TURKISH ECONOMY IN THE BELT ROAD INITIATIVE: A GRAVITY MODEL FOR INTERNATIONAL TRADE”. Journal of Management and Economics Research 20, no. 4 (December 2022): 1-23. https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1147336.
EndNote Yılmaz A (December 1, 2022) TURKISH ECONOMY IN THE BELT ROAD INITIATIVE: A GRAVITY MODEL FOR INTERNATIONAL TRADE. Journal of Management and Economics Research 20 4 1–23.
IEEE A. Yılmaz, “TURKISH ECONOMY IN THE BELT ROAD INITIATIVE: A GRAVITY MODEL FOR INTERNATIONAL TRADE”, Journal of Management and Economics Research, vol. 20, no. 4, pp. 1–23, 2022, doi: 10.11611/yead.1147336.
ISNAD Yılmaz, Alper. “TURKISH ECONOMY IN THE BELT ROAD INITIATIVE: A GRAVITY MODEL FOR INTERNATIONAL TRADE”. Journal of Management and Economics Research 20/4 (December 2022), 1-23. https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1147336.
JAMA Yılmaz A. TURKISH ECONOMY IN THE BELT ROAD INITIATIVE: A GRAVITY MODEL FOR INTERNATIONAL TRADE. Journal of Management and Economics Research. 2022;20:1–23.
MLA Yılmaz, Alper. “TURKISH ECONOMY IN THE BELT ROAD INITIATIVE: A GRAVITY MODEL FOR INTERNATIONAL TRADE”. Journal of Management and Economics Research, vol. 20, no. 4, 2022, pp. 1-23, doi:10.11611/yead.1147336.
Vancouver Yılmaz A. TURKISH ECONOMY IN THE BELT ROAD INITIATIVE: A GRAVITY MODEL FOR INTERNATIONAL TRADE. Journal of Management and Economics Research. 2022;20(4):1-23.