COVID-19 Pandemıc Effect On House Price Index In Turkey: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1, 42 - 47, 30.03.2024

Ozge Pasin , Senem Gönenç

https://doi.org/10.52835/19maysbd.1386441

Öz

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on various aspects of everyday life,and the housing market is one of these factors.The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the housing market.
In this context, the study analyzed the House price index(HPI) data for Turkey between 2018-2022 using the interrupted time series analysis(ITS) method to examine the effects of COVID-19 on the housing market.
According to the analysis, there has been a decrease in the HPI immediately after COVID-19 and this decrease is statistically significant(-105.726 and p=0.003). However, it has been found that the trend of this decrease has changed and also, it has been determined that the housing price index has increased by 14.521 points every month and year(p=0.001).
As a result,this study, which shows statistically significant effects, has revealed that COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant changes in housing prices throughout Turkey.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Time Series Analysis, COVID-19, Housing Market

Etik Beyan

The authors report there are no competing interests to declare.

Türkiye’de COVID-19 Pandemisinin Ev Fiyatları Endeksi Üzerine Etkisi: Kesintili Zaman Serileri Analizi

Öz

COVID-19 salgını günlük yaşamın çeşitli yönleri üzerinde önemli bir etkiye sahip olmuştur ve konut piyasası da bu faktörlerden biridir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, COVID-19 salgınının konut piyasası üzerindeki etkilerini araştırmaktır.
Bu kapsamda çalışmada, COVID-19'un konut piyasası üzerindeki etkilerini incelemek için Türkiye'nin 2018-2022 yılları arasındaki konut fiyat endeksi (KFE) verileri kesintili zaman serisi analizi (ITS) yöntemi kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir.
COVID-19'un hemen ardından konut fiyat endeksinde bir düşüş yaşanmıştır ve bu düşüş istatistiksel olarak anlamlıdır (-105,726 ve p=0,003). Ancak bu düşüşün trendinin değiştiği ve konut fiyat endeksinin her ay ve yıl 14.521 puan arttığı tespit edilmiştir (p=0.001).
Sonuç olarak, istatistiksel olarak anlamlı etkiler gösteren bu çalışma, COVID-19 salgınının Türkiye genelinde konut fiyatlarında önemli değişikliklere neden olduğunu ortaya koymuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

COVID-19, Zaman serileri, Ev Fiyatları

Kaynakça

• Ahsan, M.M. ,Sadak, C (2021). Exploring housing market and urban densification during COVID-19 in Turkey. J. Urban Manag, 10, 218–229.
• Aliefendioğlu, Y., Tanrivermis, H., Salami, M. A. (2022). House price index (HPI) and Covid-19 pandemic shocks: evidence from Turkey and Kazakhstan. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 15(1), 108-125.
• Barot, B., & Yang, Z. (2002). House prices and housing investment in Sweden and the UK: Econometric analysis for the period 1970–1998. Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, 14(2), 189-216.
• Bernal, J.L., Cummins, S., Gasparrini, A.(2017). Interrupted time series regression for the evaluation of public health interventions: a tutorial. International Journal of Epidemiology, 46(1), 348-355.
• Brown, J. P., Song, H., & McGillivray, A. (1997). Forecasting UK house prices: A time varying coefficient approach. Economic Modelling, 14(4), 529-548.
• Chong, T.T.L., Liu, H. (2020). How Does the COVID-19 Pandemic Affect Housing Prices in China?
• Cook, T.D., Campbell, D.T., Shadish, W. (2002). Experimental and quasi-experimental designs for generalized causal inference, Boston,Houghton Mifflin.
• De Toro, P.; Nocca, F., Buglione, F.(2021). Real estate market responses to the COVID-19 crisis: Which prospects for the metropolitan area of Naples (Italy)? Urban Sci, 5(23), 348-355.
• English, P.(2023). The its. analysis R Package–Modelling Short Time Series Data. R Package (Version 1.6.0). Interrupted Time Series. (https://ds4ps.org/pe4ps-textbook/docs/p-020-time- series.html , 2023).
• Li, X., Zhang, C.(2021). Did The COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis Affect Housing Prices Evenly in the U.S.? Sustainability, 13(21),12277.
• Main Economic Indicators. https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/data/prices/national-and-regional-house-price-indices_2dc6f1df-en, 2023).
• Pinto, R., Valentim, R., Silva, L.F., Souza, G.F., Santos Lima, T.G.F.M., Oliveria, C.A.P., Santos, M.M., Miranda, A.E., Oliveria, A.C., Kumar, V., Atun, R. (2022). Use of interrupted time series analysis in understanding the course of the congenital syphilis epidemic in Brazil. The Lancet Regional Health-Americas, 7, 100163.
• Rolfe, S., Garnham, L., Godwin, J., Anderson, I., Seaman, P., Donaldson, C. (2020). Housing as a social determinant of health and wellbeing: Developing an empirically-informed realist theoretical framework. BMC Public Health, 20(1), 1-19.
• Rostami, J., & Hansson, F. (2019). Time Series Forecasting of House Prices: An evaluation of a Support Vector Machine and a Recurrent Neural Network with LSTM cells.
• UK housing market: time series processes with independent and identically distributed residuals .(https://eprints.bournemouth.ac.uk/9484/1/JREFE_article_Feb_08.pdf, 2009).
• Usanmaz, D. (2021). Covid-19 Pandemi Sürecinin Türkiye’de Konut Sektörü Üzerine Etkileri.” Nevşehir Hacı Bektaş Veli Üniversitesi SBE Dergisi, 11(3),1352-1365.
• Wagner, A.K., Soumerai, S.B., Zhang, F. , Ross-Degnan, D. (2022). Segmented regression analysis of interrupted time series studies in medication use research.” Journal of Clinical Pharmacy and Therapeutics, 27(4),299–309.
• Wang, SY., Seghieri, C., Vainieri, M. , Groene, O. (2022). Changes in Acute Myocardial Infarction, Stroke, and Heart Failure Hospitalizations During COVID-19 Pandemic in Tuscany-An Interrupted Time Series Study.” Int J Public Health, 67, 1604319.
• UK housing market: time series processes with independent and identically distributed residuals .(https://eprints.bournemouth.ac.uk/9484/1/JREFE_article_Feb_08.pdf, 2009)
• Yilmaz, B. (2020). Forecasting house prices in Turkey: GLM, VaR and time series approaches. Journal of Business Economics and Finance, 9(4), 274-291.