Analysis of the Transformation of Turkish Exports: From Trade Liberalization Until Today

Yıl 2017, Cilt: 2 Sayı: 2, 1 - 20, 10.12.2017

Volkan Sezgin

Öz

Turkey implemented a structural adjustment program in the 1980’s aiming
to liberalize foreign trade and capital markets. The program was based on an
“export-led growth” strategy and it helped Turkey to experience a notable trade
transformation particularly in the last two-three decades. To illustrate it,
although Turkey was considered to be a major exporter of low value-added
textiles, clothing and agricultural products in the past; but she has become a
major exporter in high-value added products such as motor vehicles, iron and
steel products, electrical and non-electrical machinery at present. In this
respect, this paper investigates the developments in Turkish trade, analyze the
effects of foreign trade liberalization and assess in details the overall
profile of Turkey’s international comparative advantage. Within this framework,
Turkish export performance is analyzed empirically and trade indices such as
Normalized Revealed Comparative Advantage (NRCA; henceforth), Lafay index,
Herfindahl - Hirschman and diversification indices are visited. All in all, the
study aims to find out how the structure of Turkish trade has changed in the
last three decades and how the exports performed in this period.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Export Performance, Competitiveness, Trade Diversification, Turkey

Türk İhracatında Yaşanan Dönüşümün Analizi: Ticaretin Serbestisinden Bugüne

Öz

Türkiye, dış ticaretini ve sermaye piyasalarını serbeştleştirmek maksadıyla 1980’lerde yapısal bir dönüşüm programı uygulamıştır. Mezkur program “ihracate dayalı büyüme” stratejisini temel almış ve Türkiye’nin özellikle son yirmi-otuz  yılda kayda değer bir ticaret dönüşümü  yaşamasına yardımcı olmuştur. Örneğin, yakın zaman öncesine kadar Türkiye tekstil, giyim eşyası ve tarımsal ürünler gibi düşük katma değerli ürünler ihracatçısı iken, günümüzde ekseriyetle motorlu araçlar, demir-çelik ürünleri, elektrikli ve elektriksiz makineler ihracatçısı konumuna gelmiştir. Bu kapsamda, bu çalışma Türk ticaretindeki gelişmeleri tahkik etmekte, dış ticaret serbestisinin etkilerini analiz etmekte ve Türkiye’nin uluslararası mukayeseli üstünlük profilini detaylarıyla incelemektedir. Bu çerçevede, Türk ihracatının performansı ampirik olarak incelenmiş ve Normalize Edilmiş Karşılaştırmalı Üstünlük Endeksi, Lafay Endeksi, Herfindahl - Hirschmann ve  Çeşitlilik Endeksi gibi göstergelere yer verilmiştir. Sonuç itibariyle, bu çalışma son 30 yılda Türk ticaret yapısının nasıl değiştiğini ve ihracatın nasıl bir performans gösterdiğini ortaya çıkarmayı amaçlamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

İhracat Performansı, Rekabet Edebilirlik, Ticaret Çeşitlendirmesi, Türkiye

Kaynakça

• Arslan, I. and Van Wijnbergen, S. (1993) “Export Incentives, Exchange Rate Policy and Export Growth in Turkey”, Review Economics and Statistics, 75 (1): 128-133.
• Aydın, F., Saygılı H. and Saygılı, M. (2007) “Empirical Analysis of Structural Change in Turkish Exports”, Central Bank of Turkish Republic Working Paper Series, No: 07/08.
• Aysan, A. F. and Hacıhasanoğlu, Y. S. (2007) “Investigation into the Determinants of Turkish Export-Boom in 2000s”, The Journal of International Trade and Diplomacy, 1(2): 159-202.
• Bagwell, K. and Staiger R. W. (2002) “The Economics of the World Trading System”, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
• Balassa, B. (1978) “Exports and Economic Growth: Further Evidence”, Journal of Development Economics, 5 (2): 181–189.
• Balassa, B. (1982) “Development Strategies in Semi-Industrial Economies”, New York and London: Oxford University Press.
• Balassa, B. (1985) “Exports, Policy Choices, and Economic in Developing Countries after the 1973 Oil Shock”, Journal of Development Economics, 18 (2), 23–35.
• Balcılar, M. et al. (2014) “Turkey’s Export Performance: Examining the Main Determinants of Export Volume (1995-2010)”, Ege Academic Review, 14 (3): 451-462.
• Bhagwati, J. (1978) “Anatomy and Consequences of Exchange Control Regimes”, Cambridge, MA: Balinger for NBER.
• Chow, G. C. (1960) “Tests of Equality between Sets of Coefficients in Two Linear Regressions”, Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 28 (3): 591-605.
• Dufour, J. M., and Kiviet J, F. (1998) “Exact Inference Methods for First-Order Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models”, Econometrica, 66 (1): 79-104.
• Jongwanich, J. (2007) “Determinants of Export Performance in East and Southeast Asia”, Asian Development Bank Working Paper Series, No: 106.
• Santos-Paulino, A.U. (2002) “Trade Liberalisation and Export Performance in Selected Developing Countries”, Journal of Development Studies, 39(1): 140-164.
• Sharma, K. (2003) “Factors Determining India’s Export Performance”, Journal of Asian Economics, 14: 435-446.
• Şahinbeyoğlu, G. and Ulaşan, B. (1999) “An Empirical Examination of the Structural Stability of Export Function: The Case of Turkey”, Central Bank of Turkish Republic Discussion Paper Series, No: 9907
• Togan, S. (2010) “Turkey - Trade Policy Review 2007”, The World Economy, 33 (11): 1339–1389.
• Central Bank of Turkey (2017) http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/tcmb+en/tcmb+en/main+menu/statistics/exchange+rates/real+effective+exchange+rates+deneme/data, (11.11.2017)
• UNCTAD (2017) http://unctadstat.unctad.org/wds/ReportFolders/reportFolders.aspx?sCS_ChosenLang=en, (5.11.2017)
• UNCTAD (2005) http://unctad.org/en/docs/ditctab20051_en.pdf, (01.10.2017)
• Uygur, E. (1997) “Export Policies and Export Performance: The Case of Turkey”, ERF Working Paper Series, No: 9707.
• Vural, I. Y. and Zortuk, M. (2011) “Foreign Direct Investment as a Determining Factor in Turkey’s Export Performance”, Eurasian Journal of Business and Economics, 4 (7): 13-23.
• World Bank (2010) http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/367991468337734374/pdf/72786020090Tur0Box0371958B00PUBLIC0.pdf (18.06.2017).
• World Bank (2017) http://databank.worldbank.org/data/download/WDI_excel.zip, (18.06.2017)
• WTO (2016) https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/tpr_e/tp431_e.htm, (14.10.2017)
• WTO (2012) https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/tpr_e/tp359_e.htm, (14.10.2017)