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ORTA ASYA ÜLKELERİNDE ENERJİ TÜKETİMİ VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ: PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 20 Sayı: 1, 87 - 99, 30.06.2018

Aziza Syzdykova

Öz

Enerji ülkelerin ekonomik ve sosyal kalkınması, ekonomik büyümesi ve insanların yaşam standartlarının yükseltmesinde önemli bir yere sahiptir. Enerji tüketiminin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi ülkenin ekonomik yapısı ve ekonomik büyüme sürecinin evresine bağlı olarak ülkeden ülkeye değişiklik gösterebilmektedir. Bu sebepten enerji tüketimi ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin yönü ile ilgili literatürde kesin bir görüş yoktur. Literatürde söz konusu ilişkiyi açıklayan dört (büyüme, korumacı, tarafsızlık, geri besleme) hipotez bulunmaktadır. 


Bu çalışma Orta Asya ülkelerinde kişi başına düşen enerji tüketimi ve kişi başına düşen Gayri Safi Milli Hasıla’daki büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektedir. Çalışmada Orta Asya ülkelerinin 1991-2016 yılları arasını kapsayan 26 yıllık panel veri seti ile çalışılmıştır. Çalışmanın bulgularına göre Orta Asya ülkelerinde enerji tüketimi ve ekonomik büyüme arasında çift yönlü nedensellik söz konudur. Bu durum söz konusu ülkelerde geri besleme hipotezinin geçerli olduğunu göstermektedir. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Enerji Tüketimi Ekonomik Büyüme Orta Asya ülkeleri Panel Eşbütünleşme Panel Nedensellik

Kaynakça

  • Adıyaman, Ç. (2012). Türkiye'nin Yenilenebilir Enerji Politikaları, Niğde Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İktisat Ana Bili Dalı, Doktora Tezi, Niğde
  • Agayeva, A. (2017). Orta Asya’da Su Sorunu: Havzalar ve Barajlar. Uluslararası Afro-Avrasya Araştırmaları Dergisi, 2(1), 35-62.
  • Alaali, F., Roberts, J., Taylor, K.(2015). The Effect of Energy Consumption and Human Capital on Economic Growth: An Exploration of Oil Exporting and Developed Countries. Sheffield Economic Research Papers Series. ISSN-1749-8368.
  • Al-Iriani, M. A. (2006). Energy–GDP Relationship Revisited: An Example From GCC Countries Using Panel Causality. Energy Policy, 34(17), 3342-3350.
  • Asafu-Adjaye, J. (2000). The Relationship Between Energy Consumption, Energy Prices and Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence from Asian Developing Countries. Energy Economics 22(6): 615-625.
  • Baranzini, A., Weber, S., Bareit, M., & Mathys, N. A. (2013). The causal relationship between energy use and economic growth in Switzerland. Energy Economics, 36, 464-470.
  • Baranzini, Andrea ve diğerleri (2013), ‘‘The Causal Relationship Between Energy Use and Economic Growth in Switzerland’’, Energy Economics, 36(1), 464-470.
  • Belke, A., Dobnik, F., & Dreger, C. (2011). Energy consumption and economic growth: New insights into the cointegration relationship. Energy Economics, 33(5), 782-789.
  • Bilginoğlu, M. A., & Dumrul, C. (2012). Türk Ekonomisinin Enerji Bağımlılığı Üzerine Bir Eş-Bütünleşme Analizi. Journal of Yasar University, 7(26).
  • Cheng, B.S., Lai, T.W. (1997). An Investigation of Co-integration and Causality between Energy Consumption and Economic Activity in Taiwan. Energy Economics, 19: 435-444.
  • Ciarreta, A. & Zarraga (2010). “Economic Growth - Electricity Consumption Causality in 12 European Countries: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach.” Energy Policy, 38, 3790–3796
  • Cutler, M.R. (2001) “Economics and Security in Central Asia”, Harvard Asia Quarterly, Çevrimiçi, http://www.robertcutler.org/download/html/ar01haq.html#title Erişim: 07.02.2018
  • De Hoyos, R. E., & Sarafidis, V. (2006). Testing for cross-sectional dependence in panel-data models. Stata Journal, 6(4), 482.
  • Dritsaki, C., & Dritsaki, M. (2014). Causal relationship between energy consumption, economic growth and CO2 emissions: A dynamic panel data approach. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 4(2), 125.
  • Dumitrescu, E. I. ve Hurlin, C., (2012),Testing for Granger noncausality in heterogeneous panels. Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1450-1460. Dünya Bankası, (2018). World Bank Indicator, http://www.worldbank.org/ (Erişim Tarihi: 05.01.2018).
  • Ferguson, R. Wilkinson, W. and Hill, R. (2000). “Electricity Use and Economic Development.” Energy Policy, 28(13), 923–934
  • Ghali, K.H., El-Sakka, M.I.T. (2004) Energy Use and Output Growth in Canada: a Multivariate Co-integration Analysis. Energy Economics, 26: 225–238
  • Güvenek, B. (2009). Enerji Piyasası Reformları ve Bu Reformların Elektrik Enerjisi Piyasası Üzerine Etkisi: Elektrik Enerjisi Üreten Kuruluşlar Üzerine Bir Uygulama. Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İktisat Ana Bili Dalı, Basılmamış Doktora Tezi, Selçuk Üniversitesi, Konya
  • Hamzayev, D. (2013). Tacikistan Ekonomisi ve Türkiye İle Olan Ekonomik İlişkilerinin Değerlendirilmesi ve Geleceği, Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Gazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü
  • Harunoğulları M. (2016). “Hazar Havzasındaki Jeoekonomik Mücadele ve Devletlerin Bölge Politikaları”. International Journal Of Eurasia Social Sciences, Vol: 7, Issue: 25, pp. (133-162).
  • Herrerias, M.J., Joyeux, R., Girardin, E. (2013). Short- and Long-Run Causality between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence Across Regions in China. Applied Energy, 112: 1483–1492.
  • Huang, B.N., Hwang, M.J., Yang, C.W. (2008). Causal Relationship between Energy Consumption and GDP Growth Revisited: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach. Ecological Economics, 67(1): 41–54.
  • Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H., ve Shin, Y. (2003). Testing For Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115(1), 53-74.
  • Koç, E., & Kaya, K. (2015). Enerji Kaynakları-Yenilenebilir Enerji Durumu. Engineer & the Machinery Magazine, 56(668).
  • Köstekçi, Y. (2006). Elektrik Enerjisi Tüketimi ve Elektrik Enerjisi Piyasası. İstanbul: 2. Basım
  • Kraft, J., Kraft, A. (1978). On the Relationship between Energy and GNP. Journal of Energy and Development, 3: 401-403.
  • Kulnazarova, A. (2010). “Orta Asya Geçiş Ekonomilerinde Turizm Sektörünün Mevcut Durumu ve Gelişme Olanakları: Kırgızistan Örneği”. Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Balıkesir Üniversitesi
  • Külekçi, Ö. C. (2009). Yenilenebilir enerji kaynakları arasında jeotermal enerjinin yeri ve Türkiye açısından önemi. Ankara Üniversitesi Çevre Bilimleri Dergisi, 1(2), 83-91.
  • Lee, C.C. (2006). The Causality Relationship between Energy Consumption and GDP in G-11 Countries Revisited. Energy Policy, 34: 1086–1093.
  • Lee, J. (2013). “The Contribution of Foreign Direct Investment to Clean Energy Use, Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth.” Energy Policy 55, 483-489
  • Levin, A., Lin, C. F. ve Chu, C. S. J. (2002). Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite-Sample Properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108(1), 1-24.
  • Masih, A.M.M., Masih, M. (1996). Energy Consumption, Real Income and Temporal Causality: Results from a Multi - Country Study Based on Co-integration and Error Correction Modelling Techniques. Energy Economics, 18: 165-183.
  • Narayan, P.K., Smyth, R.(2008). Energy Consumption and Real GDP in G7 Countries: New Evidence from Panel Co-integration with Structural Breaks. Energy Economics, 30: 2331–2341.
  • Nazlioglu, S. (2011). World oil and agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from nonlinear causality. Energy policy, 39(5), 2935-2943.
  • Oh, W., Lee, K. (2004). Causal Relationship between Energy Consumption and GDP Revisited: the Case of Korea 1970–1999. Energy Economics, 26: 51–59.
  • Pedroni, P. (2004). Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The PPP Hypothesis. Econometric Theory, 20(3), 597-625.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2015). Testing Weak Cross-Sectional Dependence in Large Panels. Econometric Reviews, 34(6-10), 1089-1117.
  • Robinson, D., Mollan, R. (1982). “Energy Management in Agriculture.” Royal Dublin Society, Dublin, 11, 143–154
  • Shahateet, M. I. (2014). Modeling Economic Growth And Energy Consumption in Arab Countries: Cointegration and Causality Analysis. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 4(3), 349-359.
  • Withey. P. (2014). “Energy Use Income, and Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Direct and Multi- Horizon Causality in Canada.” International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 4(2), 178-188
  • Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2006). “Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: A Time Series Experience for 17 African Countries.” Energy Policy, 34, 1106–1114
  • Xuetang, G, (2006), “The Energy Security in Central Eurasia: the Geopolitical Implications to China’s Energy Strategy”, China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly, Volume 4, No. 4 (2006) p. 117-137
  • Yıldırım, E., Sukruoglu, D., & Aslan, A. (2014). Energy consumption and economic growth in the next 11 countries: The bootstrapped autoregressive metric causality approach. Energy Economics, 44, 14-21.
  • Yuan, J. H., Kang, J. G., Zhao, C. H., & Hu, Z. G. (2008). Energy consumption and economic growth: evidence from China at both aggregated and disaggregated levels. Energy Economics, 30(6), 3077-3094.
  • Yüksel, F. A., 2009, Kazakistan’ın Yeraltı Kaynakları ve Çevre Sorunları. İstanbul Üniversitesi Avrasya Enstitüsü, Avrasya Konferansları. 17 Aralık 2009, Beyazıt, İstanbul.
  • http://www.tasam.org/Files/Icerik/File/kazakistanin_yeralti_kaynaklari_ve_cevre_sorunlari_405c642d-ef00-4eb4-bb4c-a5f87e56db17.pdf Erişim: 19.01.2018
  • Zoidov, ve Zoidov Z. (2013). Ретроспективный Анализ и Прогнозирование Циклических Колебании Макроэкономической Динамики Республики Таджикистан на Основе Эконометрических Методов, http://www.iprras.ru/articles/zoidov12-1-int.pdf. Erişim tarihi: 17.01.2018

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CENTRAL ASIAN COUNTRIES: PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 20 Sayı: 1, 87 - 99, 30.06.2018

Aziza Syzdykova

Öz

Energy has an important position in social and economical development, economic growth of countries and raising quality of life of people. Effects of energy consumption on economic growth differ from country to country depending on economic structure and economic growth process of country. For this reason there is no exact opinion related to direction of causality relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. In the literature there are four hypotheses (growth, protective, objectivity, feedback) that explain the relationship that the point in the question. 


This study examines the relationship between per capita energy consumption and growth in Gross National Product in the Central Asian countries.In the study had worked with a 26-year panel data set covering the years 1991-2016 of the Central Asian countries.According to results of the study, there is a bi-directional causality between energy consumption and economic growth in the Central Asian countries. This situation shows that the feedback hypothesis is valid in these countries.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Energy Consumption Economic Growth Central Asian Countries Panel Cointegration Panel Causality

Kaynakça

  • Adıyaman, Ç. (2012). Türkiye'nin Yenilenebilir Enerji Politikaları, Niğde Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İktisat Ana Bili Dalı, Doktora Tezi, Niğde
  • Agayeva, A. (2017). Orta Asya’da Su Sorunu: Havzalar ve Barajlar. Uluslararası Afro-Avrasya Araştırmaları Dergisi, 2(1), 35-62.
  • Alaali, F., Roberts, J., Taylor, K.(2015). The Effect of Energy Consumption and Human Capital on Economic Growth: An Exploration of Oil Exporting and Developed Countries. Sheffield Economic Research Papers Series. ISSN-1749-8368.
  • Al-Iriani, M. A. (2006). Energy–GDP Relationship Revisited: An Example From GCC Countries Using Panel Causality. Energy Policy, 34(17), 3342-3350.
  • Asafu-Adjaye, J. (2000). The Relationship Between Energy Consumption, Energy Prices and Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence from Asian Developing Countries. Energy Economics 22(6): 615-625.
  • Baranzini, A., Weber, S., Bareit, M., & Mathys, N. A. (2013). The causal relationship between energy use and economic growth in Switzerland. Energy Economics, 36, 464-470.
  • Baranzini, Andrea ve diğerleri (2013), ‘‘The Causal Relationship Between Energy Use and Economic Growth in Switzerland’’, Energy Economics, 36(1), 464-470.
  • Belke, A., Dobnik, F., & Dreger, C. (2011). Energy consumption and economic growth: New insights into the cointegration relationship. Energy Economics, 33(5), 782-789.
  • Bilginoğlu, M. A., & Dumrul, C. (2012). Türk Ekonomisinin Enerji Bağımlılığı Üzerine Bir Eş-Bütünleşme Analizi. Journal of Yasar University, 7(26).
  • Cheng, B.S., Lai, T.W. (1997). An Investigation of Co-integration and Causality between Energy Consumption and Economic Activity in Taiwan. Energy Economics, 19: 435-444.
  • Ciarreta, A. & Zarraga (2010). “Economic Growth - Electricity Consumption Causality in 12 European Countries: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach.” Energy Policy, 38, 3790–3796
  • Cutler, M.R. (2001) “Economics and Security in Central Asia”, Harvard Asia Quarterly, Çevrimiçi, http://www.robertcutler.org/download/html/ar01haq.html#title Erişim: 07.02.2018
  • De Hoyos, R. E., & Sarafidis, V. (2006). Testing for cross-sectional dependence in panel-data models. Stata Journal, 6(4), 482.
  • Dritsaki, C., & Dritsaki, M. (2014). Causal relationship between energy consumption, economic growth and CO2 emissions: A dynamic panel data approach. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 4(2), 125.
  • Dumitrescu, E. I. ve Hurlin, C., (2012),Testing for Granger noncausality in heterogeneous panels. Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1450-1460. Dünya Bankası, (2018). World Bank Indicator, http://www.worldbank.org/ (Erişim Tarihi: 05.01.2018).
  • Ferguson, R. Wilkinson, W. and Hill, R. (2000). “Electricity Use and Economic Development.” Energy Policy, 28(13), 923–934
  • Ghali, K.H., El-Sakka, M.I.T. (2004) Energy Use and Output Growth in Canada: a Multivariate Co-integration Analysis. Energy Economics, 26: 225–238
  • Güvenek, B. (2009). Enerji Piyasası Reformları ve Bu Reformların Elektrik Enerjisi Piyasası Üzerine Etkisi: Elektrik Enerjisi Üreten Kuruluşlar Üzerine Bir Uygulama. Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İktisat Ana Bili Dalı, Basılmamış Doktora Tezi, Selçuk Üniversitesi, Konya
  • Hamzayev, D. (2013). Tacikistan Ekonomisi ve Türkiye İle Olan Ekonomik İlişkilerinin Değerlendirilmesi ve Geleceği, Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Gazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü
  • Harunoğulları M. (2016). “Hazar Havzasındaki Jeoekonomik Mücadele ve Devletlerin Bölge Politikaları”. International Journal Of Eurasia Social Sciences, Vol: 7, Issue: 25, pp. (133-162).
  • Herrerias, M.J., Joyeux, R., Girardin, E. (2013). Short- and Long-Run Causality between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence Across Regions in China. Applied Energy, 112: 1483–1492.
  • Huang, B.N., Hwang, M.J., Yang, C.W. (2008). Causal Relationship between Energy Consumption and GDP Growth Revisited: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach. Ecological Economics, 67(1): 41–54.
  • Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H., ve Shin, Y. (2003). Testing For Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115(1), 53-74.
  • Koç, E., & Kaya, K. (2015). Enerji Kaynakları-Yenilenebilir Enerji Durumu. Engineer & the Machinery Magazine, 56(668).
  • Köstekçi, Y. (2006). Elektrik Enerjisi Tüketimi ve Elektrik Enerjisi Piyasası. İstanbul: 2. Basım
  • Kraft, J., Kraft, A. (1978). On the Relationship between Energy and GNP. Journal of Energy and Development, 3: 401-403.
  • Kulnazarova, A. (2010). “Orta Asya Geçiş Ekonomilerinde Turizm Sektörünün Mevcut Durumu ve Gelişme Olanakları: Kırgızistan Örneği”. Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Balıkesir Üniversitesi
  • Külekçi, Ö. C. (2009). Yenilenebilir enerji kaynakları arasında jeotermal enerjinin yeri ve Türkiye açısından önemi. Ankara Üniversitesi Çevre Bilimleri Dergisi, 1(2), 83-91.
  • Lee, C.C. (2006). The Causality Relationship between Energy Consumption and GDP in G-11 Countries Revisited. Energy Policy, 34: 1086–1093.
  • Lee, J. (2013). “The Contribution of Foreign Direct Investment to Clean Energy Use, Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth.” Energy Policy 55, 483-489
  • Levin, A., Lin, C. F. ve Chu, C. S. J. (2002). Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite-Sample Properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108(1), 1-24.
  • Masih, A.M.M., Masih, M. (1996). Energy Consumption, Real Income and Temporal Causality: Results from a Multi - Country Study Based on Co-integration and Error Correction Modelling Techniques. Energy Economics, 18: 165-183.
  • Narayan, P.K., Smyth, R.(2008). Energy Consumption and Real GDP in G7 Countries: New Evidence from Panel Co-integration with Structural Breaks. Energy Economics, 30: 2331–2341.
  • Nazlioglu, S. (2011). World oil and agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from nonlinear causality. Energy policy, 39(5), 2935-2943.
  • Oh, W., Lee, K. (2004). Causal Relationship between Energy Consumption and GDP Revisited: the Case of Korea 1970–1999. Energy Economics, 26: 51–59.
  • Pedroni, P. (2004). Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The PPP Hypothesis. Econometric Theory, 20(3), 597-625.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2015). Testing Weak Cross-Sectional Dependence in Large Panels. Econometric Reviews, 34(6-10), 1089-1117.
  • Robinson, D., Mollan, R. (1982). “Energy Management in Agriculture.” Royal Dublin Society, Dublin, 11, 143–154
  • Shahateet, M. I. (2014). Modeling Economic Growth And Energy Consumption in Arab Countries: Cointegration and Causality Analysis. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 4(3), 349-359.
  • Withey. P. (2014). “Energy Use Income, and Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Direct and Multi- Horizon Causality in Canada.” International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 4(2), 178-188
  • Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2006). “Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: A Time Series Experience for 17 African Countries.” Energy Policy, 34, 1106–1114
  • Xuetang, G, (2006), “The Energy Security in Central Eurasia: the Geopolitical Implications to China’s Energy Strategy”, China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly, Volume 4, No. 4 (2006) p. 117-137
  • Yıldırım, E., Sukruoglu, D., & Aslan, A. (2014). Energy consumption and economic growth in the next 11 countries: The bootstrapped autoregressive metric causality approach. Energy Economics, 44, 14-21.
  • Yuan, J. H., Kang, J. G., Zhao, C. H., & Hu, Z. G. (2008). Energy consumption and economic growth: evidence from China at both aggregated and disaggregated levels. Energy Economics, 30(6), 3077-3094.
  • Yüksel, F. A., 2009, Kazakistan’ın Yeraltı Kaynakları ve Çevre Sorunları. İstanbul Üniversitesi Avrasya Enstitüsü, Avrasya Konferansları. 17 Aralık 2009, Beyazıt, İstanbul.
  • http://www.tasam.org/Files/Icerik/File/kazakistanin_yeralti_kaynaklari_ve_cevre_sorunlari_405c642d-ef00-4eb4-bb4c-a5f87e56db17.pdf Erişim: 19.01.2018
  • Zoidov, ve Zoidov Z. (2013). Ретроспективный Анализ и Прогнозирование Циклических Колебании Макроэкономической Динамики Республики Таджикистан на Основе Эконометрических Методов, http://www.iprras.ru/articles/zoidov12-1-int.pdf. Erişim tarihi: 17.01.2018
Toplam 47 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Araştırma Makaleleri
Yazarlar

Aziza Syzdykova 0000-0002-1377-0026

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Haziran 2018
Gönderilme Tarihi 17 Mart 2018
Kabul Tarihi 9 Haziran 2018
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2018 Cilt: 20 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Syzdykova, A. (2018). ORTA ASYA ÜLKELERİNDE ENERJİ TÜKETİMİ VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ: PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ. Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 20(1), 87-99.
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