E-Commerce diffusion path in Türkiye: Agent-based modeling

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 25 Sayı: 2, 265 - 283, 01.12.2023

Özlem Fikirli , Hasan Şahin

https://doi.org/10.33707/akuiibfd.1291794

Öz

While the digitalization process creates social change by affecting society, it also provides the evolution of economic life to a new dimension. One of the important developments accelerating digital transformation is the emergence of the internet. The emergence of the internet network at the global level has brought the concept of e-commerce with it. The aim of this study is to determine the shape and dynamics of the e-commerce diffusion path among consumers in Turkey. A hybrid model consisting of agent-based modeling and econometric methods is used in the study. According to findings, in addition to demographic and household characteristics, social culture and family culture that emerged on the basis of information diffusion processes are decisive in the adaptation of individuals to e-commerce. The e-commerce diffusion path in Turkey has an S-shape. Reducing the perceived transaction cost of e-commerce and supporting the use of the internet accelerates the transition to e-commerce, resulting in a steeper diffusion path.

Anahtar Kelimeler

E-commerce, Innovation Diffusion, Agent Based Modeling, Simulation Modeling

Türkiye’de e-ticaret difüzyon patikası: Ajan bazlı modelleme

Öz

Dijitalleşme süreci toplumu etkileyerek sosyal düzeyde değişim yaratırken ekonomik hayatın da yeni bir boyuta evrimini sağlamaktadır. Dijital dönüşümü ivmelendiren önemli gelişmelerden birisi internetin ortaya çıkmasıdır. Küresel düzeyde internet ağının ortaya çıkması e-ticaret kavramını da beraberinde getirmiştir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de tüketiciler arasında e-ticaret difüzyon patikası şeklinin ve dinamiklerinin belirlenmesidir. Çalışmada ajan bazlı modelleme ile ekonometrik yöntemlerden oluşan hibrit bir model kullanılmaktadır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre bireylerin e-ticarete adaptasyonunda demografik ve hane özelliklerinin yanı sıra bilgi difüzyon süreçleri temelinde ortaya çıkan toplumsal kültür ve aile kültürü belirleyici olmaktadır. Türkiye’de e-ticaret difüzyon patikası S-şekline sahiptir. E-ticaretin algılanan işlem maliyetinin düşürülmesi ve internet kullanımının desteklenmesi e-ticarete geçiş sürecini hızlandırarak daha dik bir difüzyon patikasının ortaya çıkmasını sağlamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

E-ticaret, İnovasyon Difüzyonu, Ajan Bazlı Modelleme, Simülasyon Modelleme

Kaynakça

• Akboz, A. ve Komşu, M.S. (2019). “Davranışsal İktisat Bağlamında İnternet Alışverişleri Yapan Tüketicilerin Tüketim Tarzlarının Demografik Özellikler Bağlamında İncelenmesi: Mersin Örneği”, Ekonomi, Politika & Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, 4(3), 337-349.
• Allen, L.J.S. ve Burgin, A.M. (2000). “Comparison of Deterministic And Stochastic SIS and SIR Models in Discrete Time”, Mathematical Biosciences, 163, 1-33.
• Andersen, K.V., Bjørn-Andersen, N. ve Dedrick, J. (2003). “Governance Initiatives Creating a Demand-Driven E-Commerce Approach: The Case of Denmark”, The Information Society, 19(1), 95-105.
• Anıl, B. ve Köksal, E. (2016). “Türkiye’de İnterneti Kimler, Ne İçin Kullanıyor?”, Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 38(1), 1-13.
• Anvari, R.D. ve Norouzi, D. (2016). “The Impact of E-Commerce and R&D on Economic Development in Some Selected Countries”, Procedia - Social And Behavioral Sciences, 229, 354-362.
• Armağan, E. ve Turan, A.H. (2014). “İnternet Üzerinden Alışveriş: Demografik Faktörlerin, Bireysel İhtiyaçların Etkisi Üzerine Ampirik Bir Değerlendirme”, Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 28(3), 1-22.
• Bass, F.M. (1969). “A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables”, Management Science, 15(5), 215–227.
• Boateng, R., Heeks, R., Molla, A. ve Hinson, R. (2008). “E-Commerce and Socio-Economic Development: Conceptualizing The Link”, Internet Research, 18(5), 562-594.
• Conley, T.G. ve Udry, C.R. (2010). “Learning About A New Technology: Pineapple in Ghana”, The American Economic Review, 100(1), 35-69.
• Covid-19 Commerce Insight, (2020a). https://ccinsight.org/trends-by-location/, (Erişim Tarihi:12.06.2020).
• Covid-19 Commerce Insight, (2020b). https://ccinsight.org/trends-by-location/#countries-trends (Erişim Tarihi:12.06.2020).
• Cowan, R. (2005). “Network Models of Innovation and Knowledge Diffusion”, Clusters, Networks, and Innovation, Editörler: Breschi & Malerba, Oxford University Press, 29-53.
• Çakır, H. ve Topçu, H. (2005). “Bir İletişim Dili Olarak İnternet”, Erciyes Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 1(19), 71-96.
• Davis, T. (2003). “E-Commerce Measurements and Analysis”, Statistical Journal of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, 20(3-4), 289-301.
• Denning, P. J. (1989). “The Science of Computing: The ARPANET After Twenty Years”, American Scientist, 77(6), 530-534.
• Dirgantari, P.D., Hidayat, Y.M., Mahphoth, M.H. ve Nugraheni, R. (2020). “Level of Use and Satisfaction of E-Commerce Customers in Covid-19 Pandemic Period: An Information System Success Model (ISSM) Approach”, Indonesian Journal of Science & Technology, 5(2), 261-270.
• Durlauf, S.N. (2005). “Complexity and Empirical Economics”, The Economic Journal, 115, F225–F243.
• Eurostat, (2023). https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database.
• Fagiolo, G., Moneta, A. ve Windrum, P. (2007). “A Critical Guide to Empirical Validation of Agent-Based Models in Economics: Methodologies, Procedures, and Open Problems”, Computational Economics, 30(3), 195-226.
• Foucault, B.E. ve Scheufele, D.A. (2002). "Web Vs. Campus Store? Why Students Buy Textbooks Online", Journal Of Consumer Marketing, 19(5), 409-423.
• Gibbs, J., Kraemer, K.L. ve Dedrick, J. (2003). “Environment and Policy Factors Shaping Global E-Commerce Diffusion: A Cross-Country Comparison”, The Information Society, 19(1), 5-18.
• Gibbs, J.L. ve Kraemer, K.L. (2004). “A Cross‐Country Investigation of The Determinants of Scope of E‐Commerce Use: An Institutional Approach”, Electronic Markets, 14(2), 124-137.
• Güven, H. (2020). “Covıd-19 Pandemik Krizi Sürecinde E-Ticarette Meydana Gelen Değişimler”, Avrasya Sosyal ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 7(5), 251-268.
• Hamill, L. ve Gilbert, N. (2016). “Agent‐Based Modelling in Economics”, John Wiley & Sons Ltd., United Kingdom.
• İzgi, B.B. ve ŞAHİN, İ. (2013). “Elektronik Perakende Sektörü ve İnternet Alışverişi Tüketici Davranışı: Türkiye Örneği”, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 2(1), 9-27.
• Karabulut, A.N. (2013). “Tüketicilerin Algılanan Risk Değişkeni Karşısında İnternetten Alışveriş Yapma Eğilimlerinin Ölçülmesi: Beklenen Fayda Teorisine Karşı Beklenti Teorisi”, Journal Of Yasar University, 8(32), 5515-5536.
• Kiesling, E., Günther, M., Stummer, C. ve Wakolbinger, L.M. (2012). “Agent-Based Simulation of İnnovation Diffusion: A Review”, Central European Journal of Operations Research, 20, 183–230.
• Kim, H.W. ve Gupta, S. (2009). “A Comparison of Purchase Decision Calculus Between Potential and Repeat Customers of An Online Store”, Decision Support Systems, 47, 477-487.
• Komşu, M.S. ve Akboz, A. (2019). “İnternet Alişverişlerinde Tüketici Davranışları: Rasyonel ve İrrasyonel Davranış”, Turizm Ekonomi ve İşletme Araştırmaları Dergisi, 1(1), 15-30.
• Lim, Y.J., Osman, A., Salahuddin, S.N., Romle, A.R. ve Abdullah, S. (2016). “Factors Influencing Online Shopping Behavior: The Mediating Role of Purchase Intention”, Procedia Economics and Finance, 35, 401-410.
• Limayem, M., Khalifa, M. ve Frini, A. (2000). "What Makes Consumers Buy from Internet? A Longitudinal Study of Online Shopping", IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics - Part A: Systems and Humans, 30(4), 421-432.
• Lööf, H. ve Broström, A. (2008). “Does Knowledge Diffusion Between University and Industry Increase Innovativeness?”, J Technol Transfer, 33, 73–90.
• Marangoz, M., Özkoç, H.H. ve Aydın, A.E. (2019). “Tüketicilerin İnternet Üzerinden Alışveriş Davranışlarının Açıklanmasına Yönelik Bir Çalışma”, Tüketici ve Tüketim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 11(1), 1-22.
• Matic, M. ve Vojvodic, K. (2014). “Customer-Perceived Insecurity of Online Shopping Environment”, International Review of Management and Marketing, 4(1), 59-65.
• Meade, N. ve Islam, T. (2006). “Modelling and Forecasting The Diffusion of Innovation –A 25 -Year Review”, International Journal of Forecasting, 22(3), 519-545.
• Morganosky, M.A. ve Cude, B.J. (2000). “Consumer Response to Online Grocery Shopping”, International Journal of Retail & Distribution Management, 28(1), 17-26.
• Mukherjee, A., Banerjee, S. ve Bandyopadhyay, S. (2012). “A Simulation Model Using Transaction Cost Economics to Analyze The Impact of Social Media on Online Shopping”, Social Informatics, Editörler: Aberer, K., Flache, A., Jager, W., Liu, L., Tang, J. ve Guéret, C., Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 43–53.
• OECD, (2011). “OECD Guide To Measuring The Information Society 2011”, OECD Publishing, Paris, http://Dx.Doi.Org/10.1787/9789264113541-En, (Erişim Tarihi: 02.07.2020).
• OECD ve WTO (2017). “Aid for Trade at A Glance 2017: Promoting Trade, Inclusiveness and Connectivity for Sustainable Development”, WTO, Geneva/OECD Publishing, Paris, http://Dx.Doi.Org/10.1787/Aid_Glance-2017- En, (Erişim Tarihi: 20.06.2020).
• OECD, (2019a). “Going Digital: Shaping Policies, Improving Lives”, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://Doi.Org/10.1787/9789264312012-En, (Erişim Tarihi: 02.06.2020).
• OECD, (2019b). “Unpacking E-Commerce: Business Models, Trends and Policies”, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://Doi.Org/10.1787/23561431-En, (Erişim Tarihi: 25.05.2020).
• Pebrianti, W. (2016). “Web Attractiveness, Hedonic Shopping Value and Online Buying Decision”, Int. Journal of Economics and Management, 10(S1), 123-134.
• Pingle, P.V. (2020). “Covid-19 Pandemic: Positive Consequences”, Purakala (UGC Care Journal), 31, 566-569.
• Plötz, P., Gnann, T. ve Wietschel, M. (2014). “Modelling Market Diffusion of Electric Vehicles With Real World Driving Data—Part I: Model Structure and Validation”, Ecological Economics, 107, 411-421.
• Reed, M.S., Evely, A.C., Cundill, G., Fazey, I., Glass, J., Laing, A., Newig, J., Parrish, B., Prell, C., Raymond, C. ve Stringer, L.C. (2010). “What Is Social Learning?”, Ecology and Society, 15(4).
• Rogers, E.M. (1962), Diffusion of Innovations, Free Press, New York.
• Saatçioğlu, C. ve Öncel, P. (2018). “Küreselleşme Çağında İnternet’in Ekonomi Politiği: Türkiye Üzerine Bir İnceleme”, İşletme ve İktisat Çalışmaları Dergisi, 6(4), 10-17.
• Sayılı, M. ve Büyükköroğlu, A. (2013). “E-Ticaret Yoluyla Gıda Maddeleri Satın Almaya Yönelik Tüketicilerin Tutumunu Etkileyen Faktörlerin Analizi”, Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 18(3), 246-255.
• Schreinemachers, P., Berger, T., Sirijinda, A. ve Praneetvatakul, S. (2009). “The Diffusion of Greenhouse Agriculture in Northern Thailand: Combining Econometrics and Agent‐Based Modeling”, Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 57(4), 513-536.
• Scupola, A. (2003). “The Adoption of Internet Commerce by Smes in The South of Italy: An Environmental, Technological and Organizational Perspective”, Journal of Global Information Technology Management, 6(1), 52-71.
• Singh, J. (2005). “Collaborative Networks As Determinants of Knowledge Diffusion Patterns”, Management Science, 51(5), 756-770.
• Sterman, J.D. (2000). “Business Dynamics Systems Thinking and Modeling for A Complex World”, Mcgraw-Hill Higher Education, United States.
• Ticaret Bakanlığı, (2021). https://www.ticaret.gov.tr/hizmet-ticareti/elektronik-ticaret/dijital-ticaret-tanim-ve-kavramlar, (Erişim Tarihi: 27.05.2020).
• Townsend, A. M. (2001). “The Internet and The Rise of The New Network Cities, 1969-1999”, Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 28, 39-58.
• Tu, Q., Vonderembse, M.A. ve Ragu-Nathan, T.S. (2001). “The Impact of Time-Based Manufacturing Practices on Mass Customization and Value to Customer”, Journal of Operations Management, 19, 201–217.
• Ungerer, C., Portugal, A., Molinuevo, M. ve Rovo1, N. (2020). “Recommendations to Leverage E-Commerce During The Covid-19 Crisis”, World Bank Group, Trade And COVID-19 Guidance Note, Https://Www.Worldbank.Org/En/Topic/Trade/Brief/Trade-And-Covid-19 (Erişim Tarihi: 16.06.2020).
• UPU, (2022). 2022 Postal Development Report Postal journey towards a sustainable future, https://www.upu.int/UPU/media/upu/publications/2IPD2022.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 10.07.2023).
• Ünal, R. (2019). “Davranışsal İktisat Bağlamında Z Kuşağı Tüketici Davranışlarının Cinsiyet Farkına Göre İncelenmesi”, Avrasya Sosyal ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 6(6), 574-587.
• Wilensky, U. ve Rand, W. (2015). “An Introduction to Agent-Based Modeling Modeling Natural, Social, and Engineered Complex Systems with Netlogo”, The MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, London, England.
• World Bank, (2023). https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators.
• WTO, (1998). Work Programme on Electronic Commerce, World Trade Organization, Https://Www.Wto.Org/English/Tratop_E/Ecom_E/Wkprog_E.Htm, (Erişim Tarihi: 08.06.2020).
• Yakın, V. (2011). “İnternet Perakendeciliği ve Ağızdan Ağıza Pazarlama İlişkisi; Tuğla Duvarlar Yıkılabilir Mi?”, Akademik Bakış Dergisi, 27, 1-18.
• Young, H. P. (2009). “Innovation Diffusion in Heterogeneous Populations: Contagion, Social Influence, and Social Learning”, American Economic Review, 99(5), 1899-1924.
• Zhou, T. (2011). “Understanding Online Community User Participation: A Social Influence Perspective”, Internet Research, 21(1), 67-81.
• Zhou, Q., Zhang, Q., Luo, X. ve Cai, X. (2013). “Agent-Based Simulation for Online Shopping Platform Rules”, Journal of Applied Sciences, 13(14), 2801-28