Is an Economic Integration a Stimulus for Convergence? Analysis of European Union’s Last Enlargement

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 24 Sayı: 2, 631 - 645, 27.06.2022

Özlem Toplu Yılmaz

https://doi.org/10.32709/akusosbil.983865

Öz

This study investigates the issue of the economic integration model's stimulus for convergence between the countries. As an example, the European Union, which is a successful model of economic integration, is taken. With the last enlargement wave of the European Union, the convergence of new members that joined the Union after 2000 was analyzed. Real convergence is estimated by using log regression model and nominal convergence is analyzed with the help of Convergence Reports. The results show that participation in an economic integration and also trade openness contribute to convergence in terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth among members. Trade openness is a stimulus for convergence in GDP growth in former members and new members, apart from the crisis and recovery years (2008-2013). It can be said that being included in an economic integration has a positive effect on trade openness, GDP growth and GDP per capita. Convergence was seen in 2000-2007 and 2014-2020 periods. In the 2008-2013 period, divergence was observed. The divergence experienced during the crisis years showed that nominal convergence was not sufficient to achieve harmonized growth and to overcome the crisis. In the European Union, a more harmonized growth can be achieved if real convergence is also taken into account.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Economic integration, economic union, nominal convergence, real convergence

Ekonomik Entegrasyon Yakınsama için Bir Uyarıcı Etken Midir? Avrupa Birliği’nin Son Genişleme Örneği

Öz

Bu çalışma ekonomik entegrasyon modelinin ülkeler arasındaki yakınsama için uyarıcılık konusunu araştırmaktadır. Örnek olarak başarılı bir ekonomik entegrasyon modeli olan Avrupa Birliği ele alınmıştır. Avrupa Birliği’nin son genişleme dalgasıyla birlikte 2000 yılından sonra Birliğe katılan 13 ülkenin yakınsamaları analiz edilmiştir. Log regresyon modelleri kullanılarak reel entegrasyon analiz edilmiş, yakınsama raporları incelenerek de nominal yakınsama araştırılmıştır. Sonuçlara göre, ekonomik entegrasyona katılım ve ticari açıklığın üyeler arasında GSYH büyümesi açısından yakınsamaya katkıda bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Ticari dışa açıklığın, kriz ve toparlanma yılları (2008-2013) dışında eski ve yeni üyelerde de GSYH büyümesinde yakınsama için bir uyarıcı olduğunu özetlemektedir. Birliğe son üye olan ülkelerde 2008 kriz yılı ve sonrasındaki yıllarda (2014 yılına kadar) ekonomik entegrasyona dahil olmanın ticari dışa açıklık, GSYH büyümesi ve kişi başına GSYH üzerinde olumlu etkisi olduğu söylenebilir. 2008-2013 döneminde ise uzaksama gözlenmiştir. Kriz yıllarında yaşanan uzaksama, harmonize büyümeyi sağlamak ve krizlerin üstesinden gelmek için nominal yakınsamanın yeterli olmadığını göstermiştir. Avrupa Birliği’nde, reel yakınsama da dikkate alınırsa, daha harmonize bir büyüme sağlanabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ekonomik entegrasyon, iktisadi birlik, nominal yakınsama, reel yakınsama

Kaynakça

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