Petrol Fiyatları ile İşsizlik Oranı Arasındaki Saklı İlişkinin Analizi: Türkiye Örneği

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 4 Sayı: 3, 875 - 887, 30.09.2020

Mustafa Orhan Özer

https://doi.org/10.29023/alanyaakademik.676768

Cited By: 1

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de 2005:01-2019:08 dönemi için petrol fiyatları ile işsizlik oranı arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki Fourier yaklaşımı çerçevesinde analiz edilmiştir. Fourier ADL eşbütünleşme testine göre değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli ilişki bulunmamakta, Fourier ADL saklı eşbütünleşme testine göre ise değişkenlerin negatif bileşenleri arasında uzun dönemli ilişki bulunmaktadır. Uzun dönem katsayıları FMOLS yöntemi ile tahmin edilmiştir. Analiz sonucunda literatürde yer alan çoğu çalışmanın aksine, Türkiye’de petrol fiyatlarının işsizlik oranını ters yönde etkilediği tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Petrol Fiyatları, İşsizlik Oranı, Fourier Yaklaşımı, Saklı Eşbütünleşme Testi

Analyzing the Hidden Relationship between Oil Prices and Unemployment Rate: The Case of Turkey

Öz

In this study, the long-term relationship between oil prices and unemployment rate in Turkey for the period 2005:01-2019:08 is analysed with Fourier approach. According to the Fourier ADL cointegration test, there is no long-term relationship between the variables while according to the hidden Fourier ADL cointegration test, there is a long-term relationship between the negative components of variables. Long-term coefficients are estimated by the FMOLS method. The analysis show that unlike most of the articles in the literature there is a negative impact of oil prices on unemployment rate in Turkey.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Oil Prices, Unemployment Rate, Fourier Approach, Hidden Cointegration Test

Kaynakça

• AHMAD, F. (2013). “The Effect of Oil Prices on Unemployment: Evidence from Pakistan”, Business and Economics Research Journal, 4(1): 43-57.
• ALDEMİR, Ş. ve KARA, M. (2014). “Türkiye’de İstihdam Dinamiklerine İlişkin Nedensellik Analizi”, TİSK Akademi, 9(17): 24-38.
• ALTAY, B. vd. (2013). “Oil Price, Output and Employment in Turkey: Evidence from Vector Error Correction Model”, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 3: 7-13.
• AZAZİ, H. ve TOPKAYA, Ö. (2017). “Petrol Fiyatlarındaki Değişikliğin Türkiye İmalat Sanayi Ve İstihdamı Üzerindeki Etkileri”, Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Meslek Yüksekokulu Dergisi, 20(1): 14-26.
• BANERJEE, A. vd. (1998). “Error-Correction Mechanism Tests for Cointegration in A Single-Equation Framework”, Journal of Time Series Analysis, 19(3): 267-283.
• BANERJEE, P. vd. (2017). “Fourier ADL Cointegration Test to Approximate Smooth Breaks with New Evidence from Crude Oil Market”, Economic Modelling, 67(C): 114-124.
• BECKER, R. vd. (2006). “A Stationarity Test in the Presence of an Unknown Number of Smooth Breaks”, Journal of Time Series Analysis, 27(3): 381-409.
• BOCKLET, J. ve BAEK, J. (2017). “Do Oil Price Changes have Symmetric or Asymmetric Effects on the Unemployment Rate?: Empirical Evidence from Alaska”, Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 12(5): 402-407.
• BOUCHAOUR, C. ve AL-ZEAUD, H. A. (2012). “Oil Price Distortion and Their Impact on Algerian Macroeconomic”, International Journal of Business and Management, 7(18): 99-114.
• BROWN, S. P. A ve YÜCEL, M. K. (2002). “Energy Prices and Aggregate Economic Activity: An Interpretative Survey”, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 42(2): 193-208.
• CHRISTOPOULOS, D. K. ve LEON-LEDESMA, M. A. (2010). “Smooth Breaks and Non-linear Mean Reversion: Post-Bretton Woods Real Exchange Rates”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 29(6): 1076-1093.
• CUESTAS, J. C. (2016). “The Impact of Supply Shocks on Unemployment in Spain”, Economics and Business Letters, 5(4): 107-112.
• CUESTAS, J. C. ve GIL-ALANA, L. A. (2016). “Oil Shocks on Unemployment in Central and Eastern Europe”, School of Economics and Business Administration, Faculty Working Papers, 2(16): 1-23.
• DOĞRUL, H. G. ve Soytaş, U. (2010). “Relationship between Oil Prices, Interest Rate, and Unemployment: Evidence from an Emerging Market”, Energy Economics, 32(6): 1523-1528.
• ENGLE, R. F. ve GRANGER, C. W. J. (1987). “Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing”, Econometrica, 55(2): 251-276.
• ERKAN, B. vd. (2011). “Uluslararası Ham Petrol Fiyatlarındaki Volatilitenin İşsizlik Göstergeleri Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği Üzerine Ampirik Bulgular”, 10(2): 715-730.
• EWİNG, B. T. ve THOMPSON, M. A. (2007). “Dynamic Cyclical Comovements of Oil Prices with Industrial Production, Consumer Prices, Unemployment, and Stock Prices”, Energy Policy, 35(11): 5535-5540.
• GIL-ALANA, L. A. (2003). “Unemployment and Real Oil Prices in Australia: A Fractionally Cointegrated Approach”, Applied Economics Letters, 10(4): 201-204.
• GRANGER, C. W. J. ve YOON, G. (2002). “Hidden Cointegration, University of California”, Economics Working Paper, 1-48.
• GUNU, U. ve KILISHI, A. A. (2010). “Oil Price Shocks and the Nigeria Economy: A Variance Autoregressive (VAR) Model”, International Journal of Business and Management, 5(8): 39-49.
• HATEMI-J, A. ve IRANDOUST, M. (2012). “Asymmetric Interaction between Government Spending and Terms of Trade Volatility: New Evidence from Hidden Cointegration Technique”, Journal of Economic Studies, 39(3): 368-378.
• JOHANSEN, S. (1988). “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3): 231-254.
• KARAKI, M. B. (2018). “Oil Prices and State Unemployment Rates”, The Energy Journal, 39(3): 25-49.
• KARLSSON, H. K. vd. (2018). “The Causal Nexus between Oil Prices, Interest Rates, and Unemployment in Norway Using Wavelet Methods”, Sustainability, 10(8): 1-15.
• KOCAASLAN, Ö. K. (2019). “Oil Price Uncertainty and Unemployment”, Energy Economics, Energy Economics, 81: 577-583.
• LARDIC, S. ve MIGNON, V. (2008). “Oil Prices and Economic Activity: An Asymmetric Cointegration Approach”, Energy Economics, 30(3): 847-855.
• LEE, H. vd. (2019). “More Powerful Cointegration Tests with Non-Normal Errors”, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 19(4): 397-413.
• LESCAROUX, F. ve MIGNON, V. (2008). “On the Influence of Oil Prices on Economic Activity and Other Macroeconomic and Financial Variables”, OPEC Energy Review, 32(4): 343-38.
• LOUNGANI, P. (1986). “Oil Price Shocks and the Dispersion Hypothesis”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 68(3): 363-539.
• MUCUK, M. ve EDİRNEGİL, A. (2017). “Uluslararası Petrol Fiyatlarının İşsizlik Üzerine Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, Uluslararası Politik, Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Kongresi Bildiri Özetleri Kitabı, 105.
• NARAYAN, P. K. ve GUPTA, R. (2015). “Has Oil Price Predicted Stock Returns for Over a Century?”, Energy Economics, 48: 18-23.
• ÖKSÜZLER, O. ve İPEK, E. (2011). “Dünya Petrol Fiyatlarındaki Değişimin Büyüme ve Enflasyon Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, ZKÜ Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 7(14): 15-34.
• PASCALAU, R. (2010). “Unit Root Tests with Smooth Breaks: An Application to the Nelson-Plosser Data Set”, Applied Economics Letters, 17(6): 565-670.
• PRASAD, A. vd. (2007). “Exploring the Oil Price and Real GDP Nexus for a Small Island Economy, the Fiji Islands”, Energy Policy, 35(12): 6506-6513.
• RAHMA vd. (2016). “Oil Price Shocks and Their Consequences on Sudan's GDP Growth and Unemployment Rates”, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, 21. International Academic Conference, 9-12 February 2016, Miami.
• SENZANGAKHONA, P. ve CHOGA, I. (2015). “Crude Oil Prices and Unemployment in South Africa: 1990 – 2010”, Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 6(2): 407-414.
• SİNAN, O. B. (2018). “Türkiye’de İşsizlik Oranları ile Uluslararası Petrol Fiyatları İlişkisi: 1980-2016”, Finans Ekonomi ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 3(4): 681-695.
• ŞENGÖNÜL, A. vd. (2018). “Petrol Fiyatlarının İhracat Üzerindeki Etkisi”, Yönetim ve Ekonomi, 25(2): 335-349.
• TANG, W. vd. (2010). “Oil Price Shocks and Their Short- and Long- Term Effects on The Chinese Economy”, Energy Economics, 32(1): 3-14.
• TRANG, N. T. N. vd. (2017). “The Impact of Oil Price on the Growth, Inflation, Unemployment and Budget Deficit of Vietnam”, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 7(3): 42-49.
• WIJNBERGEN, S. V. (1985). “Oil Price Shocks, Unemployment, Investment and the Current Account: An Intertemporal Disequilibrium Analysis”, The Review of Economic Studies, 52(4): 627-645.
• YARDIMCIOĞLU, F. ve BEŞEL, F. (2013). “İşsizlik-Petrol Fiyatları İlişkisi: Yapısal Kırılmalar Altında Türkiye Örneği (1980-2012)”, Turkish Studies, 8(8): 2197-2211.
• YAYLALI, M. ve LEBE, F. (2012). “İthal Ham Petrol Fiyatlarının Türkiye’deki Makroekonomik Aktiviteler Üzerindeki Etkisi”, Marmara Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 32(1): 43-68.
• YILANCI, V. vd. (2019). “The Asymmetric Effects of Foreign Direct Investment on Clean Energy Consumption in BRICS Countries: A Recently Introduced Hidden Cointegration Test”, Journal of Cleaner Production, 237: 1-9.
• YILANCI, V. ve ERİŞ, Z. A. (2013). “Purchasing Power Parity in African Countries: Further Evidence from Fourier Unit Root Tests Based on Linear and Nonlinear Models”, South African Journal of Economics, 81(1): 20-34.