Doğal Gaz Piyasasında Fiyat Balonları

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 1, 277 - 290, 31.01.2023

Berkan Ataş

https://doi.org/10.29023/alanyaakademik.1109469

Öz

Doğal gaz hem verimliği hem de diğer fosil temelli enerji kaynaklarına göre daha çevreci bir alternatif olması nedeniyle günümüzde en çok kullanılan enerji kaynaklarından biridir. Covid-19 etkilerinin yavaş yavaş hafiflemeye başlaması ile birlikte toparlanan ekonomilerin enerji gereksinimlerinin artmasıyla birlikte gelişen arz talep dengesizlikleri sonucu fiyatlarda yukarı yönlü bir hareket gözlemlenmektedir. Çalışmanın amacı yurtiçi ve uluslararası doğalgaz piyasalarındaki fiyat balonlarını pandemi öncesi yakın dönemi de kapsar şekilde karşılaştırmalı olarak analiz etmektir. Fiyat balonlarının tespiti için Generalised Supremum Augmented Dickey Fuller (GSADF) yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Bulunan sonuçlara göre hem yurtiçi gaz referans fiyatında hem de uluslararası doğal gaz piyasında çok dönemli fiyat balonu bulgularına rastlanmıştır. Bununla birlikte uluslararası ve yurtiçi piyasadaki balonların büyük ölçüde birbirine yakın dönemde gerçekleşmesi yurtiçi fiyat politikalarının uluslararası patlayıcı fiyat değişimlerini sönümlendirmekte yetersiz olduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Doğal Gaz Piyasaları, Fiyat Balonları, GSADF

Price Bubbles in Natural Gas Market

Öz

Natural gas is one of the most used energy sources today, due to its efficiency and environmentally friendly feature to other fossil-based energy sources. An upward trend is observed in prices as a result of the supply-demand imbalances that have developed with the increase in the energy needs of the recovering economies as the effects of Covid-19 begin to fade. The study aims to investigate the price bubbles in the domestic and international natural gas markets, including the recent period before the pandemic. The Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey Fuller (GSADF) method is employed to detect price bubbles. The results suggest multi-period price bubbles in both the domestic gas reference price and the international natural gas market. Besides, the fact that the bubble periods in the international and domestic markets are close to each other suggests that domestic price policies are insufficient to dampen international explosive price changes.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Natural Gas Markets, Price Bubbles, GSADF

Kaynakça

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