Türkiye'de Telekomunikasyon Teknolojilerinin Yayılımı ve İkame Etkisi

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 3, 496 - 506, 28.09.2019

Gülhan Toğa , Mehmet Toğa

https://doi.org/10.21541/apjes.432190

Öz

Telekomünikasyon
teknolojileri tüm dünyada büyük bir değişim içerisindedir. Yeni nesil
teknolojiler eski teknolojilerin yerini almaktadır. Alternatif teknolojilerin
varlığı, kullanıcıları teknolojiler arasında tercih yapmaya zorlamaktadır.
Genellikle, aynı sektörde rekabet eden yeni bir teknoloji piyasaya sunulduğunda
eski teknolojilerin kullanımında olumsuz bir etki gözlenmektedir.

 

Bu
çalışmada, Türkiye'deki sabit-mobil ikamesi ve gelecek nesil mobil
teknolojilerinin yayılımı incelenmiştir. Çalışmada, her bir durum için Lojistik
İkame modeli ve Gompertz Difüzyon modeli kullanılmıştır. Klasik difüzyon modeli
ve ikame modeli RMSE ve MAD açısından karşılaştırılmıştır ve öncelikli olarak,
sabit hat ve mobil telekomünikasyon teknolojileri, mobil telekomünikasyonun
sabit hat üzerinde oluşturduğu ikame etkisini görmek için birlikte ele
alınmıştır. İkinci adımda, Türkiye’deki mobil telekomünikasyon teknolojisinde
yaşanan hızlı teknolojik değişimler ele alınmaktadır. Bu teknolojilerin difüzyon
ve ikame etkilerini görmek için 2G, 3G ve 4.5G teknolojileri analiz edilmiştir.
Tüm sonuçlar, Lojistik İkame modelinin rekabetçi ortamları simüle etmekte daha
başarılı olduğunu göstermektedir. Diğer taraftan 2G teknolojisi ikame
etkisinden en çok etkilenen teknoloji olarak bulmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Gompertz Model, Telekomunikasyon Teknolojileri, Lojistik İkame Modeli, İkame Etkisi

Diffusion and Substitution Effect on Telecommunication Technologies in Turkey

Öz

Telecommunication
technologies show great changes all over the world. Next generation
technologies replace older ones. Alternatives of the technologies force the
users to make a choice between the competing technologies. Generally, an
adverse effect is shown on the usage of older technologies when a new
competitor is introduced to the market.

 

In this paper, substitution effect on
telecommunication technologies in Turkey is examined from the perspective of
fixed-mobile substitution and next generation mobile technologies. The study uses two
different technology diffusion models for each case: Logistic Substitution
models and Gompertz model. Generic diffusion model and substitution model are
compared in terms of RMSE and MAD. Fixed-line and mobile telecommunication
technologies are inspected together to see substitution effect of mobile telecommunication on fixed-line,
firstly. In the second step, fast technological change in the mobile
telecommunication technology is handled for Turkey. 2G, 3G and 4.5 G technologies are analyzed to see
diffusion and substitution process of these technologies. All the results
indicate that; Logistic Substitution model is better to simulate the systems in
competitive environments. On the other hand, 2G technology is found the most
affected technology by the substitution.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Logistic Substitution Model, Gompertz Model, Telecommunication Technologies, Substitution Effect

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