Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomilerinde Afetler ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 1, 47 - 57, 31.05.2024

Esra Cebeci Mazlum

https://doi.org/10.55119/artuklu.1437653

Öz

Bu çalışmada afetler ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki yükselen piyasa ekonomileri özelinde uygulamalı olarak analiz edilmiştir. 1995-2021 yıllarına ait yıllık veriler kullanılarak kişi başına düşen GSYH üzerinde, afetlerden etkilenen kişi sayısı, brüt sabit sermaye oluşumu ve nüfusun etkileri araştırılmıştır. Araştırmada tahmin edilen model Cobb-Douglas fonksiyonu temel alınarak kurulmuştur. Çalışmada kullanılan değişkenler arasındaki ilişkilerin tespitinde Driscoll-Kraay (1998) sabit etkiler model tahmincisinden yararlanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre; ekonomik büyüme üzerinde bağımsız değişkenlerden sermaye, nüfus ve afetlerden etkilenen kişi sayısı değişkenlerinin etkisi incelendiğinde; tüm bağımsız değişkenlerin bağımlı değişken üzerinde arttırıcı etkisi tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ekonomik büyüme, afetler, yükselen piyasa ekonomileri, sermaye, panel veri analizi.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DISASTERS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: THE CASE OF EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES

Öz

In this study, the relationship between disasters and economic growth was analyzed practically in the context of emerging market economies. Using annual data for the years 1995-2021, the effects of the number of people affected by disasters, gross fixed capital formation and population on GDP per capita were investigated. The estimated model in the research was established based on the Cobb-Douglas function. Driscoll-Kraay (1998) fixed effects model estimator was used to determine the relationships between the variables used in the study. According to the findings; When the effects of the independent variables capital, population and the number of people affected by disasters on economic growth are examined; An increasing effect of all independent variables on the dependent variable was determined.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Economic growth, disasters, emerging market economies, capital, panel data analysis.

Kaynakça

• Referans1 Acevedo, S. (2014). Debt. Growth, and Natural Disasters: A Caribbean Trilogy, IMF Working.
• Referans2 Adjei-Mantey, K. & Adusah-Poku, F. (2019). Natural Disasters and Economic Growth in Africa. MPRA, Working Paper, 95588, 1-15.
• Referans3 Ahlerup, P. (2013). Are natural disasters good for economic growth?. Working paper ın eceonomic, 553. Sweden: University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg Centre of Globalization and Development.
• Referans4 Akyol, H. ve Ağırkaya Batu, M. (2021). Doğal Afetlerin Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisinin İncelenmesi: NIC Ülkeleri Örneği. Ankara V. Internatıonal Scıentıfıc Research Congress, October 10-12, 2021 / Ankara- Turkiye.
• Referans5 Berlemann, M., & Wenzel, D. (2015). Long-term growth effects of natural disasters-empirical evidence for droughts. CESifo Working Paper Series No. 5598 http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2701762
• Referans6 Boustan, L. P., Kahn, M. E., Rhode, P. W. &Yanguas, M. L. (2017). The Effect of Natural Disasters on Economic Activity in Us Counties: A Century of Data. National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper, 23410, 1-59. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2020.103257.
• Referans7 Cabezon, E., Hunter, L., Tumbarello, P., Washimi, K., & Wu, Y. (2019). Enhancing macroeconomic resilience to natural disasters and climate change in the small states of the Pacific. Asian‐Pacific Economic Literature, 33(1), 113-130. https://doi.org/10.1111/apel.12255
• Referans8 FEMA (2020). National Risk Index. https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/natural-hazards
• Referans9 Felbermayr, G. & Gröschl, J. (2014). Naturally negative: The growth effects of natural disasters. Journal of Development Economics, 111, 92-106. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2014.07.004
• Referans10 Fomby, T., Ikeda, Y. & Loayza, N. (2009). The Growth Aftermath of Natural Disasters. The World Bank Development Research Group & Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, Working Paper, 5002, 1-55.
• Referans11 Guo, J., Liu, H., Wu, X., Gu, J., Song, S. & Tang, Y. (2015). Natural Disasters, Economic Growth and Sustainable Development in China-An Empirical Study Using Provincial Panel Data. Sustainability, 7, 16783-16800. https://doi.org/10.3390/su71215847
• Referans12 Güneş, İ. (2023). Afetler ve Afet Ekonomisi: Teorik Bir İnceleme. (Editör: Sanem Berkün) Sosyal, Beşeri ve İdari Bilimler Alanında Uluslararası Anlaşmalar XXII. Eğitim Yayınevi.
• Referans13 Hsiang, S. M. & Jina, A. S. (2014). The causal effect of environmental catastrophe on long-run economic growth: Evidence from 6,700 cyclones. Nber Working paper series. No: 20352. Unıted Kıngdom: National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge.
• Referans14 Kim, C. K. (2010). The effects of natural disasters on long-run economic growth (Doctoral dissertation). University of Michigan, Ann Arbor.
• Referans 15 Lee, D., Zhang, H. & Nguyen, C. (2018). The Economic Impact of Natural Disasters in Pacific Island Countries: Adaptation and Preparedness. IMF, Working Papers, 108, 1-37.
• Referans16 Loayza, N. V., Olaberria, E., Rigolini, J., & Christiaensen, L. (2012). Natural disasters and growth: Going beyond the averages. World Development, 40(7), 1317-1336. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2012.03.002
• Referans17 Onuma, H., Shin, K. J. & Managi, S. (2020). Short-, Medium-, and Long-Term Growth Impacts of Catastrophic and Non-catastrophic Natural Disasters. Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, 4, 1-18.
• Referans18 Pesaran, H.M. & T. Yamagata (2008), “Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels”, Journal of Econometrics, 142, 50-93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2007.05.010
• Referans19 Pesaran, M., H., (2015), Time Series and Panel Data Econometrics, Oxford University Press.
• Referans20 Reese, S., & Westerlund, J. (2016). Panicca: Panic on cross-section averages. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 31(6), 961-981. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2487
• Referans21 Skidmore, M. & Toya, H. (2002). Do natural disasters promote long-run growth?. Western Economic Association International (Economic Inquiry), 40(4), 664-686. https://doi.org/10.1093/ei/40.4.664
• Referans22 Strobl, E. (2011). The economic growth impact of hurricanes: Evidence from US coastal counties. Review of Economics and Statistics, 93(2), 575-589. https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00082
• Referans23 Tanyaş, M. Günalay, Y. & Aksoy, L. (2013). İstanbul İli Afet Lojistik Klavuzu, Loder, İstanbul.
• Referans24 Wooldridge, J. M. (2003). Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data, The MIT Press., Cambridge.
• Referans25 Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2020). Panel zaman serileri analizi (3.Baskı). Beta Yayınları, İstanbul.