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IMPACT OF TOURISM INCENTIVES AND GEOPOLITICAL RISK ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY

Yıl 2021, , 445 - 468, 30.11.2021

Canberk Buluş , İbrahim Bakırtaş , Süleyman Koç

https://doi.org/10.11616/asbi.954279

Öz

The aim of this study is to determine the effects of tourism revenue, geopolitical risks, gross fixed capital formation, and tourism incentives on economic growth in Turkey. For this purpose, the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration has been employed on data covering the 1985–2019 period. According to the empirical findings, a long-term equilibrium relationship has been found among the variables. While tourism revenues and gross fixed capital formation affects economic growth positively, geopolitical risks affect it negatively. Tourism incentives did not have a statistically significant effect on economic growth. Accordingly, it would be beneficial to encourage the simplification of the legal scope of tourism incentives in Turkey. In addition, it can be stated that policies aimed at reducing geopolitical risks would support economic growth.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Economic Growth Geopolitical Risk Tourism Tourism Incentives Turkish Economy

Kaynakça

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  • Aisen, A. ve Veiga, F.J. (2013), How Does Political İnstability Affect Economic Growth?, European Journal of Political Economy, 29, s.151-167.
  • Akadiri, S.S., Eluwole, K.K., Akadiri, A.C. ve Avci, T. (2020), Does Causality between Geopolitical Risk, Tourism and Economic Growth Matter? Evidence from Turkey, Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 43, s.273-277.
  • Aliyev, K. ve Ahmadova, N. (2020), Testing Tourism-Led Economic Growth and Economic-Driven Tourism Growth Hypotheses: The Case of Georgia, Tourism, 68(1), s.43-57.
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  • Aydoğuş, İ., Soybalı, H.H. ve Baytok, A. (2006), Yunanistan ile Türkiye’de Uygulanan Turizm Yatırım Teşviklerinin Karşılaştırılması, Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 4(1), s.1-22.
  • Bahar, O. (2006), Turizm Sektörünün Türkiye’nin Ekonomik Büyümesi Üzerindeki Etkisi: VAR Analizi Yaklaşımı, Yönetim ve Ekonomi, 13(2), s.137-150.
  • Balli, F., Uddin, G.S. ve Shahzad, S.J.H. (2019), Geopolitical Risk and Tourism Demand in Emerging Economies, Tourism Economics, 25(6), s.997–1005.
  • Brown, R.L., Durbin, J. ve Evans, J.M. (1975), Techniques for Testing the Constancy of Regression Relationships over Time, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 37(2), s.149-192.
  • Caldara, D. ve Iacoviello, M. (2018), Measuring Geopolitical Risk, International Finance Discussion Papers, 1222, https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2018.1222, (Erişim Tarihi: 08.10.2020)
  • Chancharat, S. (2011), Thai Tourism and Economic Development: The Current State of Research, Kasetsart Journal of Social Sciences, 32, s.340-351.
  • Chen, C.F. ve Chiou-Wei, S.Z. (2009). Tourism Expansion, Tourism Uncertainty and Economic Growth: New Evidence from Taiwan and Korea, Tourism Management, 30, s.812–818.
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  • Demir, E., Simonyan, S., Chen, M.H. ve Lau, C.K.M. (2020), Asymmetric Effects of Geopolitical Risks on Turkey's Tourist Arrivals, Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 45, s.23-26.
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TÜRKİYE’DE TURİZM TEŞVİKLERİNİN VE JEOPOLİTİK RİSKİN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ

Yıl 2021, , 445 - 468, 30.11.2021

Canberk Buluş , İbrahim Bakırtaş , Süleyman Koç

https://doi.org/10.11616/asbi.954279

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de turizm gelirlerinin, jeopolitik riskin, gayrisafi sabit sermaye yatırımlarının ve turizm teşviklerinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerini tespit etmektir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda 1985-2019 dönemi verileri için ARDL sınır testi ile eşbütünleşme analizi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Ampirik bulgulara göre, değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir denge ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Turizm gelirleri ve sermaye yatırımları ekonomik büyümeyi pozitif etkilerken, jeopolitik riskin negatif etkilediği bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Turizm teşviklerinin ekonomik büyüme üzerinde istatistiki anlamlılığa sahip herhangi bir etkisi tespit edilememiştir. Bu bulgulara göre, Türkiye’nin turizm teşviklerinin yasal kapsamı genişletilip sadeleştirilmesinin yararlı olacağı düşünülmektedir. Ayrıca, jeopolitik risklerin azaltılmasına yönelik politikaların ekonomik büyümeyi destekleyeceği ifade edilebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ekonomik Büyüme Jeopolitik Risk Turizm Turizm Teşvikleri Türkiye Ekonomisi

Kaynakça

  • Adorno, V., Bernini, C. ve Pellegrini, G. (2020), “Do Capital Subsidies Affect Growth in the Tourism Industry?”, http://old.sis-statistica.org/files/pdf/atti/rs08_spontanee_7_1.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 02.10.2020)
  • Aisen, A. ve Veiga, F.J. (2013), How Does Political İnstability Affect Economic Growth?, European Journal of Political Economy, 29, s.151-167.
  • Akadiri, S.S., Eluwole, K.K., Akadiri, A.C. ve Avci, T. (2020), Does Causality between Geopolitical Risk, Tourism and Economic Growth Matter? Evidence from Turkey, Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 43, s.273-277.
  • Aliyev, K. ve Ahmadova, N. (2020), Testing Tourism-Led Economic Growth and Economic-Driven Tourism Growth Hypotheses: The Case of Georgia, Tourism, 68(1), s.43-57.
  • Ankomah, P.K. (1991), Tourism Skilled Labor the Case of Sub-Saharan Africa, Annals of Tourism Research, 18, s.433-442.
  • Aydoğuş, İ., Soybalı, H.H. ve Baytok, A. (2006), Yunanistan ile Türkiye’de Uygulanan Turizm Yatırım Teşviklerinin Karşılaştırılması, Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 4(1), s.1-22.
  • Bahar, O. (2006), Turizm Sektörünün Türkiye’nin Ekonomik Büyümesi Üzerindeki Etkisi: VAR Analizi Yaklaşımı, Yönetim ve Ekonomi, 13(2), s.137-150.
  • Balli, F., Uddin, G.S. ve Shahzad, S.J.H. (2019), Geopolitical Risk and Tourism Demand in Emerging Economies, Tourism Economics, 25(6), s.997–1005.
  • Brown, R.L., Durbin, J. ve Evans, J.M. (1975), Techniques for Testing the Constancy of Regression Relationships over Time, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 37(2), s.149-192.
  • Caldara, D. ve Iacoviello, M. (2018), Measuring Geopolitical Risk, International Finance Discussion Papers, 1222, https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2018.1222, (Erişim Tarihi: 08.10.2020)
  • Chancharat, S. (2011), Thai Tourism and Economic Development: The Current State of Research, Kasetsart Journal of Social Sciences, 32, s.340-351.
  • Chen, C.F. ve Chiou-Wei, S.Z. (2009). Tourism Expansion, Tourism Uncertainty and Economic Growth: New Evidence from Taiwan and Korea, Tourism Management, 30, s.812–818.
  • Dash, A.K., Tiwari, A.K. ve Singh, P.K. (2018), Tourism and Economic Growth in India: An Empirical Analysis, Indian Journal of Economics, 392, s.29-49.
  • Demir, E., Gozgor, G. ve Paramati, S.R. (2019), Do Geopolitical Risks Matter for Inbound Tourism?, Eurasian Business Review, 9, s.183–191.
  • Demir, E., Simonyan, S., Chen, M.H. ve Lau, C.K.M. (2020), Asymmetric Effects of Geopolitical Risks on Turkey's Tourist Arrivals, Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 45, s.23-26.
  • Devlet Planlama Teşkilatı, Sekizinci Kalkınma Raporu. (2001), “Turizm Özel İhtisas Komisyonu Raporu”, Ankara, https://www.sbb.gov.tr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/08_Turizm.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 22.11.2020)
  • Dickey, D.A. ve Fuller, W.A. (1979), Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), s.427-431.
  • Dickey, D.A. ve Fuller, W.A. (1981), Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root, Econometrica, 49(4), s.1057-1072.
  • Dritsakis, N. (2012), Tourism Development and Economic Growth in Seven Mediterranean Countries: A Panel Data Approach, Tourism Economics, 18(4), s.801–816.
  • Durbarry, R. (2004), Tourism and Economic Growth: The Case of Mauritius, Tourism Economics, 10(4), s.389–401.
  • Ekanayake, E.M. ve Long, A.E. (2011), Tourism Development and Economic Growth in Developing Countries, Global Conference on Business and Finance Proceedings, 6(2), s.520-526.
  • Elliott, G., Rothenberg, T.J. ve Stock, J.H. (1996), Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root, Econometrica, 64(4), s.813-836.
  • Eugenio-Martín, J.L., Morales, N.M. ve Noelia Martín, S.R. (2004), Tourism and Economic Growth in Latin American Countries: A Panel Data Approach, FEEM Working Paper, 26. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=504482, (Erişim Tarihi: 02.02.2021)
  • Fayissa, B., Nsiah, C. ve Tadasse, B. (2008), Impact of Tourism on Economic Growth and Development in Africa, Tourism Economics, 14(4), s.807–818.
  • Garidzirai, R. ve Pasara, M.T. (2020). An Analysis of the Contribution of Tourism on Economic Growth in South African Provinces: A Panel Analysis, GeoJournal of Tourism and Geosites, 29(2), s.554-564.
  • Garsous, G., Corderi, D., Velasco, M. ve Colombo, A. (2017), Tax Incentives and Job Creation in the Tourism Sector of Brazil’s SUDENE Area, World Development, 96, s.87-101.
  • Gwenhure, Y. ve Odhiambo, N.M. (2017), Tourism and economic growth: A review of International Literature, Tourism Review, 65(1), s.33-44.
  • Habibi, F., Rahmati, M. ve Karimi, A. (2018), Contribution of Tourism to Economic Growth in Iran's Provinces: GDM Approach, Future Business Journal, 4, s.261-271.
  • Jong-A-Pin, R. (2009), On the Measurement of Political Instability and Its Impact on Economic Growth, European Journal of Political Economy, 25, s.15-29.
  • Kanca, O.C. (2015), Turizm Gelirleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Türkiye Örneği (1980-2013), Marmara Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 8, s.1-14.
  • Kang, S. ve Meernik, J. (2005), Civil War Destruction and the Prospects for Economic Growth, The Journal of Politics, 67(1), s.88–109.
  • Katircioglu, S.T. (2009), Revisiting the Tourism-Led-Growth Hypothesis for Turkey Using the Bounds Test and Johansen Approach for Cointegration, Tourism Management, 30, s.17-20.
  • Khan, K., Su, C.W. ve Rizvi, S.K.A. (2020), Guns and Blood: A Review of Geopolitical Risk and Defence Expenditures, Defence and Peace Economics, s.1-17.
  • Kreishan, F.M.M. (2010), Tourism and Economic Growth: The Case of Jordan, European Journal of Social Sciences, 15(2), s.229-234.
  • Lanouar, C. ve Goaied, M. (2019), Tourism, Terrorism and Political Violence in Tunisia: Evidence from Markovswitching Models, Tourism Management, 70, s.404-418.
  • Lee, C.C., Olasehinde-Williams, G. ve Akadiri, S.S. (2020), Geopolitical Risk and Tourism: Evidence from Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel Models, International Journal of Tourism Research, s.1-13.
  • McCombie, J.S.L. ve Thirlwall, A.P. (1994), Economic Growth and the Balance-of-Payments Constraint, New York: St. Martin’s Press.
  • Menegaki, A.N. (2020), The ARDL Method in the Energy-Growth Nexus Field: Best Implementation Strategies, Economies, 7(105), s.1-16.
  • Meyerson, E. (2016), Political Man on Horseback Coups and Development, https://www.hhs.se/contentassets/5f04e6ceade84bf882ec6bf118022f7c/meyersson_coups_development.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 07.01.2021)
  • Mil, B. (2016), Türkiye’de Turizm Teşvik Politikalarına Kronolojik Bir Yaklaşım, İstanbul Arel Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Ekonomi, Yönetim ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 1(2), s.1-16.
  • Narayan, P. (2005), The Saving and Investment Nexus for China: Evidence from Cointegration Tests, Applied Economics, 37(17), s.1979-1990.
  • Narayan, P.K., Narayan, S., Prasad, A. ve Prasad, B.C. (2010), Tourism and Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis for Pacific Island Countries, Tourism Economics, 16(1), s.169–183.
  • Neacşu, M.C., Neguţ, S. ve Vlăsceanu, G. (2018), The Impact of Geopolitical Risks on Tourism, Amfiteatru Economic, 20, s.870-884.
  • Ng, S. ve Perron, P. (2001), Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power, Econometrica, 69(6), s.1519-1554.
  • Nowak, J.J., Sahli, M. ve Cortés-Jiménez, I. (2007), Tourism, Capital Good Imports and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence for Spain, Tourism Economics, 13(4), s.515-536.
  • Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development [OECD], (2020), OECD Tourism Trends and Policies 2020, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/6b47b985-en, (Erişim Tarihi: 21.12.2020)
  • Pan, W.F. (2019), Geopolitical Risk and R&D Investment, Discussion Paper 2019-11, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3258111 (Erişim Tarihi: 09.01.2021)
  • Paramati, S.R., Alam, S. ve Chen C.F. (2017), The Effects of Tourism on Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions: A Comparison between Developed and Developing Economies, Journal of Travel Research, 56(6), s.712– 724.
  • Pata, U.K. (2020), Türkiye’de Turizm ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Bootstrap ARDL Yaklaşımı ve Asimetrik Nedensellik Testi ile Sektörel Bir Analiz, Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 22(2), s.590-611.
  • Perles-Ribes, J.F., Ramón-Rodríguez, A.B., Moreno-Izquierdo, L. ve Martí, M.T.T. (2018), Winners and Losers in the Arab Uprisings: A Mediterranean Tourism Perspective, Current Issues in Tourism, 21(16), s.1810-1829.
  • Pesaran, M.H. ve Pesaran, B. (1997), Working with Microfit 4.0, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. ve Smith, R.J. (2001), Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), s.289-326.
  • Phillips, P.C.B. ve Perron, P. (1988), Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression, Biometrika, 75(2), s.335-346.
  • Rusu, S. (2011), Tourism Multiplier Effect, Journal of Economics and Business Research, 1, s.70-76.
  • Sala-I-Martin, X.X. (1997), I Just Ran Two Million Regressions, The American Economic Review, 87(2), s.178-183.
  • Schubert, S.F. ve Brida, J.G. (2007), The Effects on Productivity of Subsidising Tourist Firms, eds. Keller, P. ve Bieger, T. Productivity in Tourism, Berlin, Erich Schmidt Verlag Gmbh & Co.
  • Seetanah, B. (2011), Assessing the Dynamic Economic Impact of Tourism for Island Economies, Annals of Tourism Research, 38(1), s.291–308.
  • Selimi, N., Sadiku, L. ve Sadiku, M. (2017), The Impact of Tourism on Economic Growth in the Western Balkan Countries: An Empirical Analysis, International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research, 10(2), s.19-25.
  • Sengupta, J.K. ve Espana, J.R. (1994), Exports and Economic Growth in Asian NICs: An Econometric Analysis for Korea, Applied Economics, 26(1), s.41-51.
  • Sheng, L. (2017), Factors Determining the Success or Failure of a Tourism Tax: A Theoretical Model, Tourism Review, 72(3), s.274-287.
  • Šimundić, B., Kuliš, Z. ve Šerić, N. (2016), Tourism and Economic Growth: An Evidence for Latin American and Caribbean Countries, Tourism & Hospitality Industry, s.457-469.
  • Songling, Y., Ishtiaq, M. ve Thanh, B.T. (2019), Tourism Industry and Economic Growth Nexus in Beijing, China, Economies, 7(25), s.1-15.
  • Soybilgen, B., Kaya, H. ve Dedeoglu. (2019), Evaluating the Effect of Geopolitical Risks on the Growth Rates of Emerging Countries', Economics Bulletin, 39(1), s.717-725.
  • Şanlıoğlu, Ö. ve Özcan, E.Ö. (2017), Türkiye'de Uygulanan Turizm Teşvik Politikalari Ve Sonuçlari Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme, Kırıkkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 7(2), s.97-118.
  • The World Tourism Organization [UNWTO], (2019), International Tourism Highlights, https://www.e-unwto.org/doi/pdf/10.18111/9789284421152, (Erişim Tarihi: 08.02.2021)
  • Tiwari, A.K., Das, D. ve Dutta, A. (2019), Geopolitical Risk, Economic Policy Uncertainty and Tourist Arrivals: Evidence from a Developing Country, Tourism Management, 75, s.323–327.
  • Toker, B. (2007), Türkiye’de Turizm Sektörü Teşviklerinin Değerlendirilmesi, Yönetim ve Ekonomi, 14(2), s.81-92.
  • Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Kültür ve Turizm Bakanlığı, (2020), Türkiye’de Turizm Sektörüne Sağlanan Teşvik ve Destekler, Ankara, https://yigm.ktb.gov.tr/TR-9851/turizm-istatistikleri.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 17.10.2020)
  • Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu [TÜİK], (2014), Turizm İstatistikleri, Ankara, https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Turizm-Istatistikleri-IV.Ceyrek:-Ekim-Aralik-ve-Yillik,-2014--18665, (Erişim Tarihi: 25.11.2020)
  • Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu [TÜİK], (2020), Eğitim, Kültür, Spor ve Turizm İstatistikleri, Ankara, https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Kategori/GetKategori?p=Egitim,-Kultur,-Spor-ve-Turizm-105 (Erişim Tarihi: 25.11.2020)
  • Wang, X., Wu, Y. ve Xu, W. (2019), Geopolitical Risk and Investment, SSRN Working Paper No. 3305739, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3305739 (Erişim Tarihi: 11.01.2021)
  • Wu, T.P. ve Wu, H.C. (2019), Tourism and Economic Growth in Asia: A Bootstrap Multivariate Panel Granger Causality, International Journal of Tourism Research, 21, s.87–96.
  • Yang, Y. ve Fik, T. (2014), Spatial Effects in Regional Tourism Growth, Annals of Tourism Research, 46, s.144-162.
  • Yıldırım, J. ve Öcal, N. (2004), Tourism and Economic Growth in Turkey, Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 15(52-53), s.131-141.
Toplam 74 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Araştırma Makaleleri
Yazarlar

Canberk Buluş 0000-0002-5313-6759

İbrahim Bakırtaş 0000-0003-0945-2823

Süleyman Koç 0000-0002-6976-045X

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Kasım 2021
Gönderilme Tarihi 18 Haziran 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021

Kaynak Göster

APA Buluş, C., Bakırtaş, İ., & Koç, S. (2021). TÜRKİYE’DE TURİZM TEŞVİKLERİNİN VE JEOPOLİTİK RİSKİN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ. Abant Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 21(3), 445-468. https://doi.org/10.11616/asbi.954279
AMA Buluş C, Bakırtaş İ, Koç S. TÜRKİYE’DE TURİZM TEŞVİKLERİNİN VE JEOPOLİTİK RİSKİN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ. ASBİ. Kasım 2021;21(3):445-468. doi:10.11616/asbi.954279
Chicago Buluş, Canberk, İbrahim Bakırtaş, ve Süleyman Koç. “TÜRKİYE’DE TURİZM TEŞVİKLERİNİN VE JEOPOLİTİK RİSKİN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ”. Abant Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 21, sy. 3 (Kasım 2021): 445-68. https://doi.org/10.11616/asbi.954279.
EndNote Buluş C, Bakırtaş İ, Koç S (01 Kasım 2021) TÜRKİYE’DE TURİZM TEŞVİKLERİNİN VE JEOPOLİTİK RİSKİN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ. Abant Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 21 3 445–468.
IEEE C. Buluş, İ. Bakırtaş, ve S. Koç, “TÜRKİYE’DE TURİZM TEŞVİKLERİNİN VE JEOPOLİTİK RİSKİN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ”, ASBİ, c. 21, sy. 3, ss. 445–468, 2021, doi: 10.11616/asbi.954279.
ISNAD Buluş, Canberk vd. “TÜRKİYE’DE TURİZM TEŞVİKLERİNİN VE JEOPOLİTİK RİSKİN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ”. Abant Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 21/3 (Kasım 2021), 445-468. https://doi.org/10.11616/asbi.954279.
JAMA Buluş C, Bakırtaş İ, Koç S. TÜRKİYE’DE TURİZM TEŞVİKLERİNİN VE JEOPOLİTİK RİSKİN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ. ASBİ. 2021;21:445–468.
MLA Buluş, Canberk vd. “TÜRKİYE’DE TURİZM TEŞVİKLERİNİN VE JEOPOLİTİK RİSKİN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ”. Abant Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, c. 21, sy. 3, 2021, ss. 445-68, doi:10.11616/asbi.954279.
Vancouver Buluş C, Bakırtaş İ, Koç S. TÜRKİYE’DE TURİZM TEŞVİKLERİNİN VE JEOPOLİTİK RİSKİN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ. ASBİ. 2021;21(3):445-68.