BİTCOİN İLE BORSA ENDEKSLERİ VE SEÇİLİ FİNANSAL VARLIKLAR ARASINDAKİ UZUN DÖNEM ASİMETRİK İLİŞKİSİ: KIRILGAN BEŞLİ ÜLKELER ÖRNEĞİ

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 23 Sayı: 2, 1046 - 1065, 31.07.2023

Mortaza Ojaghlou , Özge Demirkale

https://doi.org/10.11616/asbi.1266989

Öz

Türkiye, Brezilya, Hindistan, Güney Afrika ve Endonezya'nın ekonomik büyümelerini finanse etmek için istikrarsız yabancı yatırımlara olan yüksek bağımlılıkları nedeniyle, bu ülkeler “Kırılgan Beşli” ülke olarak adlandırılmıştır. Aynı zamanda Global Crypto Adoption Index'e göre, bu ülkeler kripto para birimlerine yatırım yapma konusunda oldukça aktiflerdir. Bu çalışmada “Kırılgan Beşli” ülkeler dikkate alınarak Bitcoin ve finansal varlıklar arasındaki uzun dönemli asimetrik ilişki Ağustos 2010 - Temmuz 2022 dönemine ait aylık veriler baz alınarak ARDL ve NARDL yöntemleri ile incelenmiştir. Pozitif ve negatif Bitcoin şoklarından kaynaklanan dinamik çarpanların doğrusal kombinasyonu, beş ülkenin tümü için NARDL üzerinden Dinamik çarpan testine başvurarak grafikleri çizilmiştir. Sonuçlar, Bitcoin'in tüm borsa endekslerine olumlu bir etkisi olmasına rağmen, yalnızca Türkiye ve Hindistan'daki değişkenlerin eş bütünleşik olduğunu göstermektedir. Bitcoin'in olumsuz şoklarının Türkiye'de daha derin ve baskın etkiye sahip olduğu anlaşılmıştır. Ancak, Bitcoin’in olumlu şoklarının Hindistan'da daha baskın olduğu sonucuna rastlanmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Bitcoin, Borsa Endeksleri, Finansal Varlıklar, Kırılgan Beşli, NARDL Yöntemi

LONG-TERM ASYMMETRIC RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN BITCOIN AND STOCK INDEXES AND SELECTED FINANCIAL ASSETS: THE EXAMPLE OF FRAGILE FIVE COUNTRIES

Öz

Due to Turkey, Brazil, India, South Africa, and Indonesia's high dependence on unstable foreign investment to finance their economic growth, these countries are known as “five fragile” countries. At the same time according to Global Crypto Adoption Index, those countries are remarkably active in investing in cryptocurrencies. In this study, considering the “five fragile”, the long-term asymmetric relationship between Bitcoin and financial assets has been examined by ARDL and NARDL methods based on monthly data for August 2010 - July 2022. To clearly understand the linear mixture of the dynamic multipliers due to positive and negative Bitcoin shocks, we carried out Dynamic multiplier graphs plotted for NARDL for all five countries. The results show that although there is a positive impact of Bitcoin on all stock indices, Değişkens only in Turkey and India are cointegrated. The negative shocks of Bitcoin have a more deep impact in Turkey. While the positive shocks of Bitcoin have more deep impact in India.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Bitcoin, Stock Market, Financial Assets, Five Fragile, NARDL Method

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