KEYNESYEN MODEL BAĞLAMINDA COVID-19 PANDEMİNİN KÜRESEL EKONOMİYE MUHTEMEL ETKİLERİ ABD VE ÇİN EKONOMİLERİ ÜZERİNE BİR ARAŞTIRMA

Yıl 2020, Sayı: 5 - COVID-19 ÖZEL SAYISI 2, 597 - 634, 31.05.2020

Orhan Şanlı

Öz

ÖZET
Ticaret savaşları 2019 yılında küresel ekonomiyi olumsuz yönde etkiledi. Ticaret savaşları devam ederken, 2020 yılında DSÖ’nün pandemi kabul ettiği Covid-19 salgını tüm dünyada hızla yayılmaya başladı. Son üç ay içerisinde başta ABD ve Çin olmak üzere birçok ülkede üretim sektörü, havacılık sektörü, borsalar, sermaye hareketliliği, faiz oranları, makroekonomik değişkenler tümüyle etkilenmeye başladı. Ekonomiler daralmaya devam ederken, 2020 yılının küresel ekonomide küçülme yılı olacağı artık kesinlik kazanmıştır. Belki de dünya son yüzyılda en büyük felaketle karşı karşıyadır.
Bu çalışmada korona salgınının ekonomik etkileri Keynesyen model çerçevesinde incelenmiştir. Son 10 yıl içerisinde GSYH’yı oluşturan 3 temel sektörün GSYH içerisindeki ortalama payları hesaplandı. Böylece 2020’de her bir sektörde meydana gelecek %5’lik değişmenin küresel GSYH’yı % kaç oranında etkileyeceği tahmin edilmiştir. Ayrıca koronavirüsün pandemi kabul edilmesi ile birlikte, küresel piyasalarda ve bölge ekonomilerinde meydana gelen değişimler incelenmiştir. Buna göre altın, dolar endeksi, borsalar, uluslararası uçuşlar, uluslararası belirsizlik endeksi gibi tüm dünyayı ilgilendiren alanlarda şok etkisi yaratan değişmeler meydana gelmiştir. ABD’de toplam sanayi üretimi son 101 yılın en düşük seviyesine indi. İşsizlik başvuruları tarihin en yüksek seviyesine çıktı. Çin’in sanayi üretim endeksi %15 azaldı. İşsizlik oranı 1980 yılından beri en yüksek seviye çıktı. Son olarak IMF, WTO, ILO gibi uluslararası kuruluşların tahminlerine göre 2020 yılında küresel ekonomi ve ticaret küçülecek, işsizlik ise artacaktır.
 ABSTRACT Trade wars negatively affected the global economy in 2019. While the trade wars continue, the Covid-19 outbreak, which WHO accepted as a pandemic in 2020, is spreading rapidly all over the world. In many countries, especially US and China, production sector, aviation sector, stock markets, capital mobility, interest rates, macro-economic variables have begun to be completely affected in the last three months. While the economies continue to contract, it was gain certain that 2020 will be the year of contraction in the global economy. Perhaps the world is facing the worst disaster in the last 2 centuries.
In this study, the economic effects of the corona epidemic were examined within the framework of the Keynesian model. Average shares of the 3 main sectors that make up GDP in the last 10 years were calculated. Thus, it is estimated that the 5% change that will occur in each sector in 2020 what percent will affect the global GDP. In addition, together with corona virus accepted as a pandemic, the changes in global markets and regional economies were examined. Accordingly, there have been shocking changes in areas that concern the world, such as gold, dollar index, stock markets, international flights, and international uncertainty index. Total industrial production in the US has dropped to its lowest level in the last 101 years. Unemployment applications was reached highest level in history. China's industrial production index decreased by 15%. The unemployment rate has reached its highest level since 1980. Finally, according to the estimates of international organizations such as IMF, WTO, ILO, global economy and trade will shrink and total unemployment will increase in 2020.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Korona Virüs, Covid-19, Küresel GSYH, Dış Ticaret, Ekonomik Kriz, Keynesyen Ekonomi

Kaynakça

• Ahir, H., Bloom, N., & Furceri, D. (2018). World Uncertainty Index. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3275033
• BBC, (2020). https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52291326
• Bhattarai, K. (2005). Keynesian Models for Analysis is of Macroeconomic Policy. University of Hull, Hu6 7RX, UK.
• Bloomberg, (2020). https://www.bloomberg.com/middleeast
• CNN Business, (2020). https://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/europe/
• Davidson, H. (2020). First Covid-19 case happened in November, China government records show – report. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/first-covid-19-case-happened-in-november-china-government-records-show-report
• Department Of US Treasury, 2020. https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield
• FED, (2020). https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/intlsumm/current.htm
• Flightradar24, (2020). https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics
• Funakoshi, M. & Hartman, T. (2020). Mad March: how the stock market is being hit by COVID-19. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/stock-market-volatility-coronavirus/
• Fxempire, (2020). https://www.fxempire.com/macro/united-states/manufacturing-pmi
• Ghosh, I. (2020). This chart shows how airlines are being grounded by COVID-19. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/this-chart-shows-how-airlines-are-being-grounded-by-covid-19/
• Goldprice, (2020). https://goldprice.org/spot-gold.html
• Google Trends, (2020). https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=coronavirus
• Goswami, M. (2014). L1 – Macroeconomic and Financial Implications of Fiscal Policy. IMF Institute. https://www.imf.org/external/region/tlm/rr/pdf/aug1.pdf
• ILO, (2018). https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/---dcomm/---publ/documents/publication/wcms_615594.pdf
• ILO, (2020a). COVID-19 and the world of work: Impact and policy responses. ILO Monitor 1st Edition. https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/- dcomm/documents/briefingnote/wcms_738753.pdf
• ILO, (2020b). ILO Monitor 2nd edition: COVID-19 and the world of work Updated estimates and analysis. https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/--- dcomm/documents/briefingnote/wcms_740877.pdf
• IMF, (2020). World Economic Outlook-2020 Apr. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/04/14/weo-april-2020
• Index Mundi, (2019). https://www.indexmundi.com/china/unemployment_rate.html
• Inman, P. (2020). A hundred years on, will there be another Great Depression? The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/21/100-years-on-another-great-depression-coronavirus-fiscal-response
• International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), (2019). Aviation Benefits Report 2019. https://www.icao.int/sustainability/Documents/AVIATION-BENEFITS-2019-web.pdf
• Investing, (2020). https://tr.investing.com/indices/usdollar
• IOE, 2020. Joint Statement on COVID-19 by International Organisation of Employers and International Trade Union Confederation. https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_dialogue/---actrav/documents/genericdocument/wcms_739522.pdf
• ISO, (2019). İSO Türkiye ve İstanbul İmalat PMI. http://www.iso.org.tr/projeler/iso-turkiye-ve-istanbul-imalat-pmi/
• Ministry Of Commerce People’s Republic Of China, (2020). http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/
• National Bureau of China, (2020). http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
• NEJM, (2020). First Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus in the United States. https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191?articleTools=true
• Our World In Data, (2020). Corona Virus Disease-Statistics And Research. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
• Papadimitriou, D. B., Wray, L.R. (1994). Flying Blind: The Federal Reserve's Experiment with Unobservables. Public Policy Brief no. 15. Annandale-on-Hudson, N.Y.: The Jerome Levy Economics Institute.
• Sanderson, H. (2020). Gold bugs vindicated by coronavirus rally. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/d3334720-e211-4779-a30f-85bcdbbd4239
• State Administration of Foreign Exchange in China, (2020). https://www.safe.gov.cn/en/DataandStatistics/index.html
• Statista, (2020). https://www.statista.com/statistics/256563/share-of-economic-sectors-in-the-global-gross-domestic-product/
• Stupak, J.M. (2019). Fiscal Policy: Economic Effects. Congressional Research Services Report, R45723. https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45723.pdf
• Technometrica Market Intellince, 2020. http://www.technometrica.com/our-expertise-StatisticalAnalysisy.html
• The Balance, (2019). US Manufacturing Statistics and Outlook. https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-manufacturing-what-it-is-statistics-and-outlook-3305575
• Trading Economics, (2020). https://tradingeconomics.com/china/manufacturing-production
• UNIDO, (2020). Coronavirus: The Economic Impact. https://www.unido.org/stories/coronavirus-economic-impact
• United States Of Census Bureau, (2020). https://www.census.gov/
• University of Mighigan, (2020). https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/.
• US Bureau Of Labor Statistics, (2020). https://www.bls.gov/
• US Department Of Labor, (2020). https://www.dol.gov/
• Walters, J., Helmore, E.(2020). US may be in recession amid Covid-19 crisis, says Fed chair Jerome Powell. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/26/us-recession- coronavirus-crisis-fed-chair-jerome-powell#maincontent
• WFE, (2020). https://www.world-exchanges.org/
• White House, (2020). Opening Up America Again. https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/
• WHO, (2020). WHO Announces COVID-19 Outbreak a Pandemic. http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/health-emergencies/coronavirus-covid- 19/news/news/2020/3/who-announces-covid-19-outbreak-a-pandemic
• World Bank, (2020). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TM.VAL.MRCH.CD.WT
• Worldometer, (2020). https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
• WTO, (2020). https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres20_e/pr855_e.htm
• WUI, (2020). https://worlduncertaintyindex.com/data/