DOLAYSIZ VE DOLAYLI VERGİ GELİRLERİNİN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 3, 430 - 442, 31.07.2021

Ömer Faruk Öztürk

Öz

Vergi gelirleri, ekonomik büyüme üzerinde etkili olabilecek kamu harcamalarının finansmanında başlıca gelir kaynaklarından birisidir. Bu çalışmada frekans alanı nedensellik testi kullanılarak 1965-2019 döneminde Türkiye’de dolaysız ve dolaylı vergi gelirleri ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki kısa, orta ve uzun vadeli etkileşim analiz edilmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda dolaysız vergi gelirlerinden ekonomik büyümeye doğru kısa dönemde, dolaylı vergi gelirlerinden ekonomik büyümeye doğru ise orta ve uzun dönemde bir nedensellik olduğu belirlenmiştir. Diğer yandan, ekonomik büyümeden dolaysız vergi gelirlerine doğru kısa, orta ve uzun dönemde nedensellik olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Dolaysız Vergi Gelirleri, Dolaylı Vergi Gelirleri, Frekans Alanı Nedensellik Analizi.

Teşekkür

İlginiz için çok teşekkür ederim.

Kaynakça

• ACEMOGLU, D., Robinson, J. (2008). The role of institutions in growth and development. Commission on Growth and Development Working Paper;No. 10. World Bank, Washington, DC. © World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/28045 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
• ALMEIDA, J. L., Mendonca, H. F. (2019). The effect of infrastructure and taxation on economic growth: New empirical assessment. Journal of Economic Studies, 46 (5), 1065-1082.
• AL-TARAWNEH, A., Khataybeh, M., Alkhawaldeh, S. (2020). Impact of taxation on economic growth in an emerging country. International Journal of Business and Economic Research, 9(2), 73-77.
• ASLLANAJ, R., Hajdari, V., Berisha, V. (2018). Growth effects of tax structure: Evidence from Kosovo. Acta Universitatis Danubius, 14(6), 506-521. BABATUNDE, O.A., Ibukun, A.O., Oyeyemi, O.G. (2017). Taxation revenue and economic growth in Africa. Journal of Accounting and Taxation, 9(2), 11-22. https://doi.org/10.5897/JAT2016.0236
• BARRO, R.J. (1996). Determinants of economic growth: A cross-country empirical study. NBER Working Paper 5698
• BARRO, R.J. (2003). Determinants of economic growth in a panel of countries. Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, 4(2), 231-274.
• BORENSZTEİN, E, De Gregorio, J, Lee, JW (1998) How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth? Journal of International Economics, 45, 115–135.
• BREITUNG, J., & Candelon, B. (2006). Testing for short and long-run causality: A frequency-domain approach. Journal of Econometrics, 132(2), 363–378. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2005.02.004
• BRUNS, S.B., Ioannidis, J.P.A. (2020). Determinants of economic growth: Different time different answer?, Journal of Macroeconomics, 63, 103185, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2019.103185
• DAM, M., Ertekin, Ş. (2018). Türkiye’de vergi gelirlerinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisinin analizi. Vergi Raporu, 228, 19-32.
• DEMİR, M., Sever, E. (2017). Vergi gelirleri ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: OECD ülkelerine ilişkin panel veri analizi. Aksaray Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 9(2), 51-66.
• DURKAYA, M., Ceylan, S. (2006). Vergi gelirleri ve ekonomik büyüme. Maliye Dergisi, Sayı 150, 79-89.
• DÜNYA BANKASI (2021). GDP per capita growth (annual %), https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG (02.02.2021)
• EGBUNIKE, F.C., Emudainohwo, O.B., Gunardi, A. (2018). Tax Revenue and Economic Growth: A Study of Nigeria and Ghana. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 7 (2), 213 – 220.
• ERDOĞAN, E., Topçu, M., Bahar, O. (2013). Vergi gelirleri ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye ekonomisi üzerine eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik analizi. Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 50, 99-108.
• EREN, M.V., Ergin Ünal, A., Aydın, H.I. (2018). Türkiye’de vergi gelirleri ile ekonomik kalkınma arasındaki ilişki: Frekans alanı nedensellik analizi. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 19(1), 1-18.
• FEREDE, E.,& Dahlby, B. (2012). The impact of tax cuts on economic growth: Evidence from the Canadian provinces. National Tax Journal, 65(3), 563-594.
• GARFINKLE, N. (2005). Supply‐side vs. demand‐side tax cuts and U.S. economic growth, 1951–2004. Critical Review, 17 (3-4), 427-448. https://doi.org/10.1080/08913810508443647
• GEMMELL, N., Kneller, R., & Sanz, I. (2011). The Timing and Persistence of Fiscal Policy Impacts on Growth: Evidence from OECD Countries. The Economic Journal, 121(550), 33-58. DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0297.2010.02414.x
• GEWEKE, J. 1982. Measurement of linear dependence and feedback between multiple time series. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 77(378), 304–324. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1982.10477803
• GLYKOU, I., Siokorelis, V. (2013). Taxation as a determinant of economic growth in South-Eastern Europe: The case of Bulgaria and Croatia. European Research Studies Journal, 16(2), 68–81.
• GÓMEZ-PUIG, M., Sosvilla-Rivero, S. (2018). Public debt and economic growth: Further evidence for the euro area. Acta Oeconomica, 68(2), 209–229.
• GRANGER, C. W. 1969. Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424-438.
• HACKER, R. S. ve Hatemi-J, A. (2006). Tests for causality between integrated variables using asymptotic and bootstrap distributions: Theory and application. Applied Economics, 38(13), 1489-1500.
• HOSOYA, Y. 1991. The Decomposition and measurement of the interdependency between second-order stationary processes. Probability Theory and Related Fields, 88(4), 429–444. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01192551
• IBADIN, P. O.,& Oladipupo, A. O. (2015). Indirect taxes and economic growth in Nigeria. Ekonomska misao ipraksa, 2, 345-364.
• JAİMOVICH, N., Rebelo, S. (2016). Non-linear effects of taxation on economic growth. Journal of Political Economy, 125 (1), 265-291.
• JOHANSSON, A., Heady, C., Arnold, J.M., Brys, B., Vartia, L. (2008). Taxation and economic growth. OECD Economics Department Working Papers No. 620, https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/241216205486.pdf?expires=1620053488&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=245AEA7FB6AA2034718D5A2FE739969E
• KARAYILMAZLAR, E., Göde, B. (2017). Vergi yükünün ekonomik büyüme üzerine etkisi. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 10(4), 131-142. https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.330849
• KALAŠ, B., Mirović, V., Milenković, N. (2018). The relationship between taxes and economic growth: Evidence from Serbia and Croatia. European Journal of Applied Economics, 15(2), 17-28. https://doi.org/ 10.5937/EJAE15-18056
• MANGIR, F., Ertuğrul, H.M.(2012). Vergi yükü ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: 1988-2011 Türkiye örneği. Maliye Dergisi, Sayı 162, 256-265.
• LUCAS, R.E., Jr. (1988). On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics. 22 (1), 3-42.
• MACEK, R. (2014). The impact of taxation on economic growth: Case of OECD countries. Review of Economic Perspectives,14 (4), 309-328.
• MAGANYA, M.H. (2020). Tax revenue and economic growth in developing country: An autoregressive distribution lags approach. Central European Economic Journal, 7, 205-217. https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2020-0018
• MUCUK, M., Alptekin V. (2008). Türkiye’de vergi ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: VAR analizi (1975-2006). Maliye Dergisi, Sayı 155, 159-174.
• NEOG, Y., Gaur, A.K. (2020). Tax structure and economic growth: A study of selected Indian States. Journal of Economic Structures, 38(9), 1-15
• OECD (2021). Tax revenue, https://data.oecd.org/tax/tax-revenue.htm (02.02.2021)
• ORGAN, İ., Ergen, E. (2017). Türkiye’de vergi yükünün ekonomik büyümeye etkileri üzerine bir çalışma. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 27, 197-207. https://doi.org/10.5505/pausbed.2017.75508
• PADOVANO, F.,& Galli, E. (2001). Tax rates and economic growth in the OECD countries (1950-1990). EconomicInquiry, 39(1), 44-57. DOI: 10.1111/j.1465-7295.2001.tb00049.x
• PEGKAS, P., Staikouras, C., Tsamadias, C. (2020). On the determinants of economic growth: Empirical evidence from the Eurozone countries. International Area Studies Review, 23(2), https://doi.org/10.1177/2233865920912588
• REED, R. (2008). The robust relationship between taxes and U.S. state income growth. National Tax Journal,61(1), 57-80.
• ROMER, P.M. (1990). Endogenous technological change. Journal of Political Economy, 98, 71-102.
• ROMER, P.M. (1986). Increasing returns and long-run growth. Journal of Political Economy, 94(5), 1002-1037.
• ROMER, C., Romer, D. (2010). The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimated Based on a New Measureof Fiscal Shocks. American Economic Review, 100(3), 763-801. DOI:10.3386/w13264
• SARAÇ, T.B. (2015). Vergi yükü ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi:Türkiye örneği. Maliye Dergisi, Sayı 169, 21-35.
• SOLOW, R.M. (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70 (1), 65-94.
• TAŞ, S., Ağır, H., İğde, G. (2016). Causality analysis of the export and economic growth: The case of Turkey. EconWorld, Barcelona, Spain.
• TEMİZ, D. (2008). Türkiye’de Vergi Gelirleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: 1960- 2006. 2.Ulusal İktisat Kongresi, İzmir.
• TODA, H.Y., Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225-250.
• TOMLJANOVİCH, M. (2004). The role of state fiscal policy in state economic growth. Contemporary Economic Policy,22(3), 318-330. DOI:10.1093/cep/byh023
• TOSUN, M.S., Abizadeh, S. (2005). Economic growth and tax components: An analysis of Tax changes in OECD.Applied Economics, 37(19), 2251-2263. DOI:10.1080/00036840500293813
• TSAURAİ, K. (2021). Tax revenue and economic growth in emerging markets: Is financial development relevant? Journal of Accounting and Management, 11(1), 134-144.
• UMUT, G., Alizadeh, N., Erkılıç, A.Y. (2011). Maliye politikası araçlarından borçlanma ve vergilerin ekonomik büyümeye etkileri. Uludağ Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 30(1), 75-93.
• ÜNLÜKAPLAN, İ., Arısoy, İ. (2011). Vergi Yükü ve Yapısı ile İktisadi Büyüme Arasındaki Dinamik Etkileşimler Üzerine Uygulamalı Bir Analiz. ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi, 38, 71-100.