Balassa-Samuelson Hipotezinin Yüksek Orta Gelirli Ülkelerde Geçerliliğinin Test Edilmesi

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 32 Sayı: 2, 427 - 446, 11.05.2018

Arş.gör. Doğan Barak , Arş.gör. Bekir Çelik , Prof.dr. Tuncay Çelik

Öz

Balassa-Samuelson hipotezine göre, bir ülkenin ticarete konu
olan mallarının veriminde ticarete konu olmayan
mallarına göre bir artış olursa ve bu artış diğer ülkelere kıyasla daha yüksek
bir seviyede gerçekleşirse,
bu ülkenin ticarete konu olmayan mallarının fiyatı da diğer ülkelere göre daha yüksek
olacaktır. Dolayısıyla ticarete konu olmayan malların ülkeler arasındaki nispi
fiyatı artacaktır. Nispi fiyatlardaki bu artış reel döviz kurunu da aynı oranda
artıracaktır. Yani söz konusu ülkenin parası değer kazanacaktır. Bu çalışmada Balassa-Samuelson
hipotezinden yola çıkarak reel döviz kuru ve verimlilik arasındaki ilişki
yüksek orta gelir düzeyine sahip 10 ülke için 1990-2015 dönemine ait
verilerden yararlanarak tespit edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda Panel ARDL
tahmincisi kullanılarak uzun dönem ve kısa dönem ilişkiyi açıklayan katsayılara
ulaşılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre reel döviz kuru değerlenmesi ile
verimlilik arasında uzun dönemde pozitif yönlü bir ilişki olduğunu
belirlenmiştir. Elde edilen bu sonuçlar varyans ayrıştırma ve etki-tepki fonksiyonları
ile de desteklenmektedir. Bu sonuçlar
neticesinde yüksek orta gelir düzeyine sahip 10 ülke için Balassa-Samuelson hipotezinin
geçerli olduğu
gözlemlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Balassa-Samuelson Hipotezi, Reel Döviz Kuru, Verimlilik, Panel ARDL

Testing the Validity of the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis in High Middle Countries

Öz

According
to the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis, if an increase in productivity of the
traded goods in a country is higher than the non-traded goods and the increase
occurs at a higher level than the other countries, the price of non-traded
goods in this country will be higher than that in the other countries.
Therefore, the relative price of non-traded goods will increase between these
countries. This increase in relative prices will also increase the real
exchange rate. In the other words, currency of the country in
question
will appreciate. This paper uses the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis and aims to
determine the nexus between real exchange rate and productivity, using the data
from 1990-2015 for 10 countries with high middle income. In that line, panel
ARDL estimator has been used to obtain coefficients describing the long-term
and short-term relation. The findings indicate that there is indeed a positive
nexus between the real exchange rate appreciation and the productivity, in the
long term. These results are also supported by variance decomposition and
impulse-response functions. The results show that the Balassa-Samuelson
hypothesis is valid for these 10 countries with high middle-income level.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis, Real Exchange Rate, Productivity, Panel ARDL

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