The Effect of Economic Globalization on Unemployment in Emerging Market Economies

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 22 Sayı: Özel Sayı 2, 1763 - 1783, 22.10.2018

Ali Altıner , Eda Bozkurt Yılmaz Toktaş

Öz

 In the present study, the effects of economic globalization on unemployment were examined for 16 emerging market economies by taking the period of 1991-2014. Within the scope of research, KOF economic globalization index as the economic globalization, unemployment rates based on the estimations of ILO for the unemployment were used. In the empirical analysis, the cross-sectional dependency was examined by using 𝐶𝐷𝐿𝑀1 and 𝐶𝐷𝐿𝑀2 , and then the stationarity of series was examined by using SURADF unit root test, whereas the long-term relationship between the series was analyzed by using Durbin-Hausman cointegration test. After proving the long-term relationship between the series, finally the cointegration coefficients were estimated by using DSUR method. The empirical analysis results indicated that the increase in economic globalization increased the unemployment rates in Colombia, Hungary, India, Malaysia, Poland, South Africa, and Turkey but the increase in economic globalization decreased the unemployment rates in Brazil, China, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Russia, and Thailand.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Unemployment, Economic Globalization, Panel Data Analysis, Emerging Market Economies

Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomilerinde Ekonomik Küreselleşmenin İşsizlik Üzerindeki Etkisi

Öz

Bu çalışmada, ekonomik küreselleşmenin işsizlik üzerindeki etkisi 1991-2014 dönemi ele alınarak 16 yükselen piyasa ekonomisi için incelenmiştir. Analiz kapsamında, ekonomik küreselleşmeyi temsilen KOF ekonomik küreselleşme endeksi ve işsizliği temsilen ILO tahminlerine dayalı işsizlik oranları kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada ilk olarak yatay kesit bağımlılığı  𝐶𝐷𝐿𝑀1 ve 𝐶𝐷𝐿𝑀2  testiyle araştırılmış olup, daha sonra serilerin durağanlığı SURADF birim kök testiyle ve seriler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki Durbin-Hausman eşbütünleşme testiyle incelenmiştir. Seriler arasında uzun dönemli ilişkinin varlığı ispat edildikten sonra son olarak eşbütünleşme katsayıları DSUR yöntemiyle tahmin edilmiştir. Ampirik analiz sonuçları Kolombiya, Macaristan, Hindistan, Malezya, Polonya, Güney Afrika ve Türkiye’de ekonomik küreselleşmedeki artışın işsizlik oranını arttırdığını, ancak Brezilya, Çin, Endonezya, Meksika, Pakistan, Peru, Filipinler, Rusya ve Tayland’da ise ekonomik olarak küreselleşme düzeyindeki artışın işsizlik oranını azalttığını ortaya koymuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ekonomik Küreselleşme, İşsizlik, Panel Veri Analizi, Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomileri

Kaynakça

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