Türkiye'nin Doğu Karadeniz Bölgesine Gelen Turistlerin Projeksiyonları

Yıl 2020, , 85 - 98, 30.04.2020

Ashfak Ahmad Khan

https://doi.org/10.33688/aucbd.688738

Cited By: 3

Öz

Turizm öngörüleri, sektörün gelecekteki gelişmelerinin yönetimi için sağlam bir politika geliştirmede çok önemli rol oynamaktadır. Bu çalışma, Türkiye'nin Doğu Karadeniz Bölgesi’nde Otoregresif Entegre Hareketli Ortalama (ARIMA) modelinin uygulanması ile gelen turist sayısının projeksiyonunu sunmaktadır. Önerilen model için 2008'den 2018'e kadar gelen turist sayılarının aylık verileri kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlar, önerilen modelin gerçek gelen turist sayılarına çok yakın değerleri öngördüğünü ortaya koymuştur. Doğu Karadeniz Bölgesi'nde gelecek yıllarda gelen turistlerin artması ve bölgenin popüler bir turizm merkezi haline gelmesi beklenmektedir. Bu nedenle, turizmi sürdürülebilir bir biçimde geliştirmek için önceden bazı önlemlerin alınması gerekmektedir. Gelecek projeksiyonu, sürdürülebilir turizm gelişiminin ayrılmaz bir parçası olduğundan çalışmanın sonuçları bölge için daha iyi bir turizm politikasının geliştirilmesine katkıda bulunacaktır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Turist Gelişler, Turizm Öngörüsü, ARIMA modelleme, Doğu Karadeniz Bölgesi, Türkiye

Projections of Tourist Arrivals in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey

Öz

Tourism forecasting plays a vital role to develop strong policy for the management of future development in the sector. This study makes tourist arrival projections in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey with application of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Annual data of tourist arrivals from 1996 to 2018 has been used for proposed model. The results have revealed that the proposed model has projected the tourist arrival values that are very close to actual values. Tourist arrivals are projected to be increased in the future years in Eastern Black Sea Region, hence, making the region a popular tourist destination. Therefore, prior measures are important to take in order to develop tourism in sustainable form. The results of the study are useful for development of better tourism policy for the region as future projection is an integral part of sustainable tourism development.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Tourist arrivals, Tourism forecast, ARIMA modelling, Eastern Black Sea Region, Turkey

Kaynakça

• Amir, A.F., Ghapar, A.A., Jamal, S.A., Ahmad, K.N. (2015). Sustainable Tourism Development: A Study on Community Resilience for Rural Tourism in Malaysia. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 168, 116–22. doi: 10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.10.217.
• Baldigara, T., Maja, M. (2015). Modelling International Tourism Demand Using Seasonal Arima Models. Tourism and Hospitality Management, 21 (1), 1–31. Available online at: https://www.hrcak.srce.hr/140166 (accessed 02 December 2019)
• Barbosa, L., Jayme, F., Missio, F. (2018). Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate in the Long-Run for Developing and Emerging Countries: A Theoretical and Empirical Approach. International Review of Applied Economics, 32 (1), 62–83. doi:10.1080/02692171.2017.1332017.
• Bramwell, B., James, H., Bernard L., Graham, M. (2017). Twenty-Five Years of Sustainable Tourism and the Journal of Sustainable Tourism: Looking Back and Moving Forward. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 25 (1), 1–9. doi:10.1080/09669582.2017.1251689.
• Budeanu, A., Graham, M., Gianna, M., Can, S. O. (2016). Sustainable Tourism, Progress, Challenges and Opportunities: An Introduction. Journal of Cleaner Production, 111(part B), 285–94. doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.10.027.
• Bunakov, O., Zaitseva, A., Larionova, A. et al. (2015). Research on the Evolution of Management Concepts of Sustainable Tourism and Hospitality Development in the Regions. Journal of Sustainable Development, 8 (6), 39–44. doi:10.5539/jsd.v8n6p39.
• Cankurt, S., Subasi, A. (2015). Developing Tourism Demand Forecasting Models Using Machine Learning Techniques with Trend, Seasonal, and Cyclic Components. Balkan Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering, 3 (1), 42–49. Available online at: http://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/bajece/issue/3357/46412 (accessed 05 January 2020).
• Cheng, T., Homer C. (2014). How Do Environmental Knowledge, Environmental Sensitivity, and Place Attachment Affect Environmentally Responsible Behavior? An Integrated Approach for Sustainable Island Tourism. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 23 (4), 557–76. doi:10.1080/09669582.2014.965177.
• Chhorn, T., Chukiat, C. (2018). Modelling and Forecasting Tourist Arrivals to Cambodia: An Application of ARIMA-GARCH Approach. Journal of Management, Economics and Industrial Organization, 2 (2), 1–19. Available online at: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/83942/ (accessed 31 December 2019).
• Doğa Koruma ve Milli Parklar Genel Müdürlüğü. (2019). Korunan Alanları. Available online at: http://www.tabiat.gov.tr/ (accessed 10 December 2019).
• Farmaki, A., Levent, A., David, B., Sarina, H. (2015). Politics and Sustainable Tourism: The Case of Cyprus. Tourism Management, 47, 178–90. doi: 10.1016/j.tourman.2014.09.019.
• Giap, T., Sasidaran, G., Ye, Ye. (2016). Drivers of Growth in the Travel and Tourism Industry in Malaysia: A Geweke Causality Analysis. Economies, 4 (1), 3. doi:10.3390/economies4010003.
• Gozgor, G., Demir, E., Bilgin, M. (2017). The Effects of the Military in Politics on the Inbound Tourism: Evidence from Turkey. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 22 (8), 885–93. doi:10.1080/10941665.2017.1343196.
• Gozlu, M., Onur, K. (2016). Analysis and Forecasts on the Healthcare Tourism Income of Turkey. Pressacademia, 3 (3), 222–222. doi:10.17261/pressacademia.2016321990.
• Gupta, J., Courtney V. (2016). Sustainable Development Goals and Inclusive Development. International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, 16 (3), 433–48. doi:10.1007/s10784-016-9323-z.
• Hall, C. (2011). Policy Learning and Policy Failure in Sustainable Tourism Governance: From First- and Second Order to Third-Order Change? Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 19 (4-5), 649-671. doi:10.1080/09669582.2011.555555.
• Hill, J., Gale, T. (2009). Ecotourism and environmental sustainability: Principles and practice. Ashgate Publishing Ltd, Surrey, U.K.
• Jamal, T., Camargo, B.A. (2014). Sustainable Tourism, Justice and an Ethic of Care: Toward the Just Destination. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 22 (1), 11-30. doi.10.1080/09669582.2013.786084.
• Juvan, E., Sara D. (2014). The Attitude-Behaviour Gap in Sustainable Tourism.” Annals of Tourism Research, 48, 76–95. doi: 10.1016/j.annals.2014.05.012.
• Juvan, E., Sara, D. (2016). Measuring Environmentally Sustainable Tourist Behaviour. Annals of Tourism Research, 59, 30–44. doi: 10.1016/j.annals.2016.03.006.
• Kang, S., Jinwon K., Sarah N. (2014). National Tourism Policy and Spatial Patterns of Domestic Tourism in South Korea. Journal of Travel Research, 53 (6), 791–804. doi: 10.1177/0047287514522875.
• Lee, C. K., Turgut V., Thomas W. B. (1996). Determinants of Inbound Tourist Expenditures. Annals of Tourism Research, 23(3), 527–42. doi: 10.1016/0160-7383(95)00073-9.
• Lu, J. (2009). Sustainable Tourism Research : An Analysis of Papers Published in the Journal of Sustainable Tourism. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 17 (1), 5-16. doi: 10.1080/09669580802582480.
• Makoni, T., Delson, C. (2018). Modelling and Forecasting Zimbabwe’s Tourist Arrivals Using Time Series Method: A Case Study of Victoria Falls Rainforest. Southern African Business Review, 22. doi:10.25159/1998-8125/3791.
• Marrocu, E., Raffaele P. (2013). Different Tourists to Different Destinations. Evidence from Spatial Interaction Models. Tourism Management, 39, 71–83. doi: 10.1016/j.tourman.2012.10.009.
• Ministry of Tourism and Culture, Turkey. (2019). Data of Various Tourism Bulletins. Available online at: https://yigm.ktb.gov.tr/ (accessed 12 December 2019).
• Moscardo, G. (2015). Building Excellence in Sustainable Tourism: 15 Years of BEST EN Practice. Journal for Cleaner Production, 111(SV), 538–39. doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.09.137.
• Naderan, A., Jalil S. (2010). Aggregate Crash Prediction Models: Introducing Crash Generation Concept. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 42 (1), 339-46. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2009.08.020.
• Petrevska, B. (2017). Predicting Tourism Demand by A.R.I.M.A. Models. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istrazivanja, 30 (1), 939–50. doi:10.1080/1331677X.2017.1314822.
• Pulido-Fernández, J. I., Lidia, A. C., Marcelino, S. R. (2015). Is Sustainable Tourism an Obstacle to the Economic Performance of the Tourism Industry? Evidence from an International Empirical Study. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 23 (1), 47-64. doi:10.1080/09669582.2014.909447.
• Ruhanen, L., Betty W., Brent D. M. (2015). Trends and Patterns in Sustainable Tourism Research : A 25-Year Bibliometric Analysis. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 23 (4), 517-535. doi: 10.1080/09669582.2014.978790.
• Seckelmann, As. (2002). Domestic Tourism—a Chance for Regional Development in Turkey? Tourism Management, 23, 85-92. doi:10.1016/S0261-5177(01)00066-8.
• Sönmez, S. F. (1998). Tourism, Terrorism, and Political Instability. Annals of Tourism Research, 25 (2), 416-56. doi:10.1016/S0160-7383(97)00093-5.
• Tavares, J. M., Nuno, C. L. (2017). The Determinants of International Tourism Demand for Brazil. Tourism Economics, 23 (4), 834-45. doi:10.5367/te.2016.0540.
• Tosun, C. (2001). Challenges of Sustainable Tourism Development in the Developing World: The Case of Turkey. Tourism Management, 22 (3), 289-303. doi:10.1016/S0261-5177(00)00060-1.
• Tosun, C., Timpthy, D., Öztürk, Y. (2003). Tourism Growth, National Development and Regional Inequality in Turkey. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 11(2-3), 133-61. doi:10.1080/09669580308667200.
• TUNG, L. T. (2019). Forecasting the Foreign Tourist Arrivals to Vietnam Using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Method. Journal of Environmental Management and Tourism, 9 (6), 1135. doi:10.14505//jemt.v9.6(30).01
• TÜSİAD. (2012). Sürdürülebilir Turizm, İstanbul: SİS Matbacılık.
• United Nations. (2005). Making Tourism More Sustainable - A Guide for Policy Makers (English Version). France: United Nations Environment Programme. doi:10.18111/9789284408214.
• UNWTO. (2019). International Tourism Highlights International Tourism Continues to Outpace the Global Economy: 1–24. Madrid, doi:10.18111/9789284421152.
• Yang, H., Dong, X. Wang, M, Guo, Yu. (2013). GIS-Aided Evolvement Analysis of Spatial-Temporal Pattern of Regional Tourism Industry Environment. Advanced Materials Research, 726-731, 4690-4693. doi: 10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.726-731.4690
• Yilmaz, E. (2015). Forecasting Tourist Arrivals to Turkey. Tourism, 63 (4), 435-45. doi: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2530.5688.