Turizmin Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi: Turizme Dayalı Büyüme Hipotezinin Türkiye İçin Geçerliğinin ARDL Modeli ile Analizi

Yıl 2017, Cilt: 17 Sayı: 1, 43 - 58, 15.03.2017

Doç. Dr. Ethem Esen , Doç. Dr. Erkan Özata

https://doi.org/10.18037/ausbd.415631

Cited By: 7

Öz

 Türkiye, önemli uluslararası turizm merkezlerinden biridir. Türkiye’de hükümetler, turizm sektörünü desteklemiş ve turizm sektörünün gelişimine öncelik vermişlerdir. Bu nedenle turizm Türkiye’de hızlı büyüme gösteren bir hizmetler sektörü haline gelmiştir. Bu çalışmanın amacı Pesaran, Shin ve Smith tarafından geliştirilen otoregresif dağıtılmış gecikme modelini (ARDL) kullanarak, Türkiye’de turizmin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisini araştırmak ve böylece turizme dayalı büyüme hipotezinin Türkiye için geçerli olup olmadığını test etmektir. Analizde 2003:1-2015:4 dönemine ait çeyrek dönemlik reel Gayrisafi Yurtiçi Hasıla (GSYH), ülkeye gelen uluslararası turist sayısı ve reel döviz kuru (RER) verileri kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre turizmin Gayrisafi Yurtiçi Hasıla üzerinde hem kısa dönemde hem de uzun dönemde anlamlı pozitif etkisi vardır. İkinci olarak Granger nedensellik testine Toda-Yamamoto yaklaşımı kullanılmış ve turizmden ekonomik büyümeye doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi belirlenmiştir. Böylece çalışmadan elde edilen bulgular, turizme dayalı büyüme hipotezinin Türkiye örneği için ampirik olarak desteklendiğini göstermektedir. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Turizm, Turizme Dayalı Büyüme Hipotezi, Ekonomik Büyüme

Kaynakça

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