BORÇ SERVİSİ İLE KAMU GELİR VE HARCAMALARI ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ
Yıl 2005,
Cilt: 60 Sayı: 2, 29 - 48, 10.02.2015
Muhlis Bağdigen
,
Erdal Abdulhakimoğulları
Öz
Borçlanma, kamu harcamalarının finansmanı ve içinde bulunulan sosyo-ekonomik şartların gerektirdiği önlemleri almak için verginin bir alternatifi olarak sıkça başvurulan bir araçtır. Bununla birlikte, borcun geri ödeme zamanında ekonomi üzerinde önemli etkilere sahiptir. Türkiye' de de borçlanma sıkça başvurulan bir araç olup, bu çalışmada borç anapara ve faizlerinin ödenmesini ifade eden borç servisinin kamu gelir ve harcama kanadı açısından olası etkileri ampirik olarak irdelenmektedir. 1980-2003 yıllarını kapsayan bu çalışma ile elde edilen bulgularla borç servisi ile kamu gelirleri arasında aynı yönde ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişki tespit edilmiştir. Kamu harcamaları açısından ise istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olmayan ters yönlü bir ilişki tespit söz konusudur.
Kaynakça
- ABEL, Andrew B.lBERNANKE, Ben S. (1995), Macroeconornks (New York: Addison-Wesley Publishing, 2 nd Edition).
- BARRO, Robert J. (1974), "Are Government Bonds New Wealth?," Journal of Political Econorny, 81: 1095-1117.
- BARRO, Robert J. (1979), "On the Determination of the Public Debt;' Journal of Political Econorny, 87: 940-71.
- BARRO, Robert J. (1989), The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits, Journal of Econornk Perspectives, 3/2: 37-54.
- BERNHEIM, B. Douglas (1987), "Ricardian Equivalence: An Evaluation of Theory and Evidence," Working Paper, National Bureau of Econornic Research, No 2330.
- BRENNAN, Geoffrey/BUCHANAN, James M. (1980), The Power to Tax: Analytical Foundations of a Fiscal Constitution (Cambridge: Cambridge University Pres). BUCHANAN, James M. (1958), Public Principles of Public Debt (Homewood, IL: Richard D. Irwin).
- BUCHANAN, James M./RbBACK, Jennifer (1987), "The Incidence and Effects of Public Debt in the Absence of Fiscallllusion," Public Finance Quarterly, 15: 5-25.
- CUKIERMAN, Alex/MEL TZER, Allan H. (1989), "A Political Theory of Government Debt and Deficits in a Neo-Ricardian Framework," American Economic Review, 79: 13-32.
- DAVIDSON, Russell/MacKINNON, James G. (1993), Estimation and Inference in Econometrics (New York: Oxford University Press).
- DICKEY, David A./FULLER, Wayne A. (1979), "Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Journal of the American 5tatistical Association, 74/366: 427-431.
- DPT (2004), "Ekonomik ve Sosyal Göstergeler," internet Sayfası, http://ekutup.dpt.gov.tr/ekonomi/gosterge/tr i! (04.11.2004).
- ENGLE, Robert F./GRANGER, Clive W. (1987), "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing," Econometrica, 55/2: 251.276.
- ERTEK, Tümay (1996), Ekonometriye Giriş (istanbul: Beta Yayınları). FERGUSON, James M. (1964), Public Debt and Future Generations (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Pres).
- GUJARATI, Damodar N. (1995), Basic Econometrics (Singapore: McGraw-Hill International Edition). HM (2004), "Ekonomik Göstergeler," Internet Sitesi, http://www.hazine.gov.trlstat/egosterge.htm, (04.11.2004).
- INCE, Macit (1996), Devlet Borçlanması (Ankara: Seçkin Yayınevi, 5. Baskı). LERNER, Abba P. (1948), "The Burden of the National Debt," METZLER, Lloyd A. vd. (eds.)
- Income, Emp(oyment, and Public Policy (New York: W. W. Norton): 255-75.
- MYLES, Gareth D. (1995), Public Economics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Pres).
- RICARDO, David (1963), "Principles of Political Economy and Taxation," (Homewood, IL: Richard D.lrwin).
- SCHUMPETER, Joseph A. (1954), History of Economic Analysis (London: George AlIen & Unwin).
- SMITH, Adam (1937), An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations (New York: Modern Library).
- TCMB (2004), "Elektronik Veri Dağıtım Sistemi," Internet Sayfası, http:ııtcmbf40.tcmb.gov.tr/cbt.html, (04.11.2004)
- THOMPSON, Earl A. (1967), "Debt Instruments in Both Macroeconomic and Capital Theory," American Economic Review, 57: 1196-1210.
- ULUSOY, AhmetlKÜÇÜKKALE, Yakup (1996), "Türkiye'de Dış Borçlann Iktisadi Büyüme ve Enflasyon Üzerine Etkisi, "G. Ü. /./.B. F. Ekonomik Yaklaşım Dergisi, 7(21), internet Sitesi, http://www.yakupkucukkale.com/studies/ulusoy.pdf.(04.11.2004).
- ULUSOY, Ahmet (2001), Devlet Borçlanması (Trabzon: Derya Kitabevi).
Yıl 2005,
Cilt: 60 Sayı: 2, 29 - 48, 10.02.2015
Muhlis Bağdigen
,
Erdal Abdulhakimoğulları
Kaynakça
- ABEL, Andrew B.lBERNANKE, Ben S. (1995), Macroeconornks (New York: Addison-Wesley Publishing, 2 nd Edition).
- BARRO, Robert J. (1974), "Are Government Bonds New Wealth?," Journal of Political Econorny, 81: 1095-1117.
- BARRO, Robert J. (1979), "On the Determination of the Public Debt;' Journal of Political Econorny, 87: 940-71.
- BARRO, Robert J. (1989), The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits, Journal of Econornk Perspectives, 3/2: 37-54.
- BERNHEIM, B. Douglas (1987), "Ricardian Equivalence: An Evaluation of Theory and Evidence," Working Paper, National Bureau of Econornic Research, No 2330.
- BRENNAN, Geoffrey/BUCHANAN, James M. (1980), The Power to Tax: Analytical Foundations of a Fiscal Constitution (Cambridge: Cambridge University Pres). BUCHANAN, James M. (1958), Public Principles of Public Debt (Homewood, IL: Richard D. Irwin).
- BUCHANAN, James M./RbBACK, Jennifer (1987), "The Incidence and Effects of Public Debt in the Absence of Fiscallllusion," Public Finance Quarterly, 15: 5-25.
- CUKIERMAN, Alex/MEL TZER, Allan H. (1989), "A Political Theory of Government Debt and Deficits in a Neo-Ricardian Framework," American Economic Review, 79: 13-32.
- DAVIDSON, Russell/MacKINNON, James G. (1993), Estimation and Inference in Econometrics (New York: Oxford University Press).
- DICKEY, David A./FULLER, Wayne A. (1979), "Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Journal of the American 5tatistical Association, 74/366: 427-431.
- DPT (2004), "Ekonomik ve Sosyal Göstergeler," internet Sayfası, http://ekutup.dpt.gov.tr/ekonomi/gosterge/tr i! (04.11.2004).
- ENGLE, Robert F./GRANGER, Clive W. (1987), "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing," Econometrica, 55/2: 251.276.
- ERTEK, Tümay (1996), Ekonometriye Giriş (istanbul: Beta Yayınları). FERGUSON, James M. (1964), Public Debt and Future Generations (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Pres).
- GUJARATI, Damodar N. (1995), Basic Econometrics (Singapore: McGraw-Hill International Edition). HM (2004), "Ekonomik Göstergeler," Internet Sitesi, http://www.hazine.gov.trlstat/egosterge.htm, (04.11.2004).
- INCE, Macit (1996), Devlet Borçlanması (Ankara: Seçkin Yayınevi, 5. Baskı). LERNER, Abba P. (1948), "The Burden of the National Debt," METZLER, Lloyd A. vd. (eds.)
- Income, Emp(oyment, and Public Policy (New York: W. W. Norton): 255-75.
- MYLES, Gareth D. (1995), Public Economics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Pres).
- RICARDO, David (1963), "Principles of Political Economy and Taxation," (Homewood, IL: Richard D.lrwin).
- SCHUMPETER, Joseph A. (1954), History of Economic Analysis (London: George AlIen & Unwin).
- SMITH, Adam (1937), An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations (New York: Modern Library).
- TCMB (2004), "Elektronik Veri Dağıtım Sistemi," Internet Sayfası, http:ııtcmbf40.tcmb.gov.tr/cbt.html, (04.11.2004)
- THOMPSON, Earl A. (1967), "Debt Instruments in Both Macroeconomic and Capital Theory," American Economic Review, 57: 1196-1210.
- ULUSOY, AhmetlKÜÇÜKKALE, Yakup (1996), "Türkiye'de Dış Borçlann Iktisadi Büyüme ve Enflasyon Üzerine Etkisi, "G. Ü. /./.B. F. Ekonomik Yaklaşım Dergisi, 7(21), internet Sitesi, http://www.yakupkucukkale.com/studies/ulusoy.pdf.(04.11.2004).
- ULUSOY, Ahmet (2001), Devlet Borçlanması (Trabzon: Derya Kitabevi).