Jeopolitik/Jeoekonomik Depremler Çağı’nda Güney Kafkasya: II. Karabağ ve Ukrayna Savaşları’nın Bölgesel Etkileri Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 13 Sayı: 1, 7 - 28, 29.06.2022

Mehmet Akif Okur , Mustafa Şahin

Öz

Makalede, Güney Kafkasya’da yakın vadede meydana gelen dönüşüm ve dünya sisteminin başat aktörleri arasındaki münasebetleri yeniden düzenleyen kutuplaşma iklimi, karşılıklı etkileşim alanlarını dikkate alan jeopolitik ve jeoekonomik perspektiflerden analiz edilmektedir. Ardından da bölgeyi bekleyen muhtemel geleceğe dair bazı gerekçelendirilmiş tahayyüller üzerinde durulmaktadır. Çalışmaya hakim olan bakış açısı, Güney Kafkasya’yı bölge dışı müdahil güçlerin edilgen rekabet alanı sayan yaklaşımlardan farklıdır. İlk olarak Güney Kafkasya’nın dinamiklerini inşa eden tarihi, jeopolitik ve jeoekonomik süreç açıklanmıştır. Bölge devletlerinin önem ve kapasiteleri, kendi güçleri ve üçüncü taraflarla ilişkileri bakımından ortaya konularak Türkiye-Azerbaycan İttifakı’nın II. Karabağ Savaşı’ndaki askeri, siyasi ve diplomatik başarısı tahlil edilmiştir. Ardından, Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı’nın Güney Kafkasya üzerindeki muhtemel etkileri masaya yatırılmıştır. Ukrayna’nın işgali üzerine devreye sokulan Batılı jeoekonomik strateji ile Rusya’nın jeoekonomik araçları arasındaki mücadele incelenmiştir. Bu çerçevede, değişen enerji ve ulaşım güzergahlarının dikkatleri nasıl Güney Kafkasya’nın da parçası olduğu Türk kuşağı üzerinde topladığı gösterilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Türkiye-Azerbaycan ittifakı, Güney Kafkasya, Jeoekonomi, Jeopolitika, II. Karabağ Savaşı, Ukrayna Savaşı, Türk Kuşağı

South Caucasus in the Age of Geopolitical/Geoeconomic Earthquakes: An Evaluation of the II. Karabakh and Ukraine Wars' Effects on the Region

Öz

In the article, the mutual interaction between the recently transformed South Caucasus and the current polarization climate that is rearranging the relations of the dominant actors in the World system are analyzed from geopolitical and geoeconomic views. Besides, some grounded imaginations about the possible future of the region are emphasized. The perspective that dominates the study is different from the approaches that regard the South Caucasus as a passive competition area of outside powers. First, the historical, geopolitical, and geoeconomic processes that built the dynamics of the South Caucasus are explained. The importance and capacities of the regional states and their relations with third parties are presented. In the second phase, the military, political and diplomatic successes of the Turkey-Azerbaijan Alliance in the II Karabakh War are analyzed. Then, the possible effects of the Russia-Ukraine War on the South Caucasus are discussed. The struggle between the Western geoeconomic strategy, which has been put into action after the invasion of Ukraine, and the counter-geoeconomic tools of Russia are examined. In this context, it is shown how the changing energy and transportation routes draw attention to the Turkish belt, of which the South Caucasus is also a significant part.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Turkey-Azerbaijan alliance, South Caucasus, Geoeconomics, Geopolitics, II. Karabakh War, Turkish Belt, Ukrainian War

Kaynakça

• “Armenia Reassures Iran As Tehran-Baku Tensions Mount”, 7 September 2021, https://mirrorspectator.com/2021/10/07/armenia-reassures-iran-as-tehran-baku-tensions-mount/, Son Erişim Mayıs 10, 2022.
• “Birlik Devleti, bazı bakımlardan Sovyetler Birliği ile kıyaslanan güçlü bir entegrasyon projesidir”, https://www.postkomsg.com/en/, Son Erişim Mayıs 10, 2022.
• “Iran Reasserts Opposition to Baku-Proposed ‘Corridors’”, 2 May 2022, https://asbarez.com/iran-reasserts-opposition-to-baku-proposed-corridors/, Son Erişim Mayıs 10, 2022.
• “В Армении считают, что заявление Лукашенко о стране предназначено для внутренней повестки”, TASS, 8 Şubat 2022, https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/13645969?utm_source=eurasia.expert&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=eurasia.expert&utm_referrer=eurasia.expert, Son Erişim Mayıs 10, 2022.
• Azərbaycan Respublikası ilə Rusiya Federasiyası arasında müttəfiqlik qarşılıqlı fəaliyyəti haqqında Bəyannamə, 22 Şubat 2022, https://www.azerbaijan-news.az/az/posts/detail/azerbaycan-respublikasi-ile-rusiya-federasiyasi-arasinda-muttefiqlik-qarsiliqli-fealiyyeti-haqqinda-beyanname-1645551384, Son Erişim Mayıs 10, 2022.
• Bacchus, James ve Ariel Cohen, “U.S. Sanctions on Russia Should Not Punish Central Asia”, The National Interest, 1 May 2022, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/us-sanctions-russia-should-not-punish-central-asia-202136 Beyaz, Zafer Fatih, “Türkiye ile Kazakistan arasında 15 anlaşma imzalandı”, 10.05.2022, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/gundem/turkiye-ile-kazakistan-arasinda-15-anlasma-imzalandi/2584104
• Baru, Sanjaya “Geo-Economics and Strategy”, Survival, 3/54, (2012): s. 47-58.
• Blackwill, D. Robert, Harris, Jennifer M, War By Other Means Geoeconomics and Statecraft, London, 2016.
• Broers, Laurence, “Augmented Azerbaijan? The return of Azerbaijani irredentism”, Eurasianet, 5 August 2021, https://eurasianet.org/perspectives-augmented-azerbaijan-the-return-of-azerbaijani-irredentism, Son Erişim Mayıs 10, 2022.
• Chaudhury, D. Roy, “New Chinese train to Europe bypasses Russia despite close ties”, 21 April 2022, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/new-chinese-train-to-europe-bypasses-russia-despite-close-ties/articleshow/90969296.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
• Eurostat, “From where do we import nergy?”, https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/infographs/energy/bloc-2c.html, Son Erişim Mayıs 10, 2022.
• Fedorenko R.V., Modern Issues of Development of the Customs and Logistics Infrastructure of the International North-South Transport Corridor. In: Ashmarina S., Vochozka M. (eds) Sustainable Growth and Development of Economic Systems. Contributions to Economics. Cham 1992.
• Gasimli, Vusal, “The ‘Zangezur Corridor’ is a geo-economic revolution”, Emerging Europe, 17 May 2021, https://emerging-europe.com/voices/the-zangezur-corridor-is-a-geo-economic-revolution/, Son Erişim Mayıs 10, 2022.
• Gozalova, Nigar, "Britanya Diplomatik Dokümanlarında Azerbaycanlı Türklere Karşı Gerçekleştirilen Katliamlar (1918-1920)". Uluslararası Suçlar ve Tarih (2017 ), s. 47-72
• http://www.traceca-org.org/en/home/, Son Erişim Mayıs 10, 2022.
• http://www.traceca-org.org/fileadmin/fm-dam/Routes_Maps/MAP_TRACECA_ROUTES_10_09_2017_300DPI.png, Son Erişim Mayıs 10, 2022.
• Huseynov, Tabib, "Mountainous Karabakh: New Paradigms for Peace and Development ort he 21st Century,” International Negotiation 1/15, (2010), s. 7-31.
• Huseynov, Vasif, “Azerbaijan Embarks on Construction of Nakhchivan Railway (Part Two)”, Eurasia Daily Monitor 18/59, (13 April 2021), https://jamestown.org/program/azerbaijan-embarks-on-construction-of-nakhchivan-railway-part-two/ , Son Erişim Mayıs 10, 2022.
• Iddon, Paul, “The Growing Military Cooperation Between Turkey And Azerbaijan”, Forbes, 27 July 2021, https://www.forbes.com/sites/pauliddon/2021/07/27/the-growing-military-cooperation-between-turkey-and-azerbaijan/?sh=6c2a564a1b3b, Son Erişim Mayıs 10, 2022.
• Leonard, Mark, “Connectivity Wars”, Why Migration, Finance and Trade Are the Geo-Economic Battlegrounds of the Future, ed. Mark Leonard, London, 2016.
• Mehdiyev, Mushvig, “Azerbaijan Becomes 1st Muslim-Majority Country Represented At AIPAC”, 9 March 2020, CaspianNews, https://caspiannews.com/news-detail/azerbaijan-becomes-1st-muslim-majority-country-represented-at-aipac-2020-3-9-0/, Son Erişim Mayıs 10, 2022.
• Minister of Foreign Affairs, “Economic Relations Between Turkey and Azerbaijan”, https://www.mfa.gov.tr/economic-relations-between-turkey-and-azerbaijan.en.mfa, Son Erişim Mayıs 10, 2022.
• Okur, Mehmet Akif. “Bir Kuşak, Bir Yol” Projesi’nin Jeopolitiği, Türk Kuşağı ve Uygurlar", Akademik Hassasiyetler 4 (2017 ), s. 45-55.
• Museyibov, Ayaz, “How the South Caucasus Can Connect Eurasia”, The National Interest, 10 May 2022, https://nationalinterest.org/feature/how-south-caucasus-can-connect-eurasia-202322
• Putin greenlights double citizenship agreement with South Ossetia — document, 4 August 2021, https://tass.com/politics/1322719, Son Erişim Mayıs 10, 2022.
• Sharifli, Yunis, “Emerging potential of the Middle Corridor”, 04.05.2022, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/analysis/analysis-emerging-potential-of-the-middle-corridor/2579415
• Stronski, Paul, “The Shifting Geography of the South Caucasus”, 23 June 2021, https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/06/23/shifting-geography-of-south-caucasus-pub-84814, Son Erişim Mayıs 10, 2022.
• Tashjian, Yeghia, “Syunik and the Geo-Economic Future of the South Caucasus”, The Armenian Weekly, 21 May 2021, https://armenianweekly.com/2021/05/21/syunik-and-the-geo-economic-future-of-the-south-caucasus/, Son Erişim Mayıs 10, 2022.
• The Ministry of Transport, Communications, and High Technologies of the Republic of Azerbaijan, https://mincom.gov.az/en/view/pages/104/ Son Erişim, Mayıs 10, 2022.
• Tugwell, Paul, Georgiou, Georgios, “U.S. Says EastMed Pipeline to Europe ‘Not Economically Viable’ “, Bloomberg, 7 April 2022, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-07/u-s-says-eastmed-pipeline-to-europe-not-economically-viable, Son Erişim Mayıs 10, 2022.
• Заявление Президента Азербайджанской Республики, Премьер-министра Республики Армения и Президента Российской Федерации, 10 ноября 2020 года, http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/64384
• Wijk, Rob De, “Zeitschrift für Staats- und Europawissenschaften (ZSE)” / Journal for Comparative Government and European Policy , 3/11,(2013), s. 387-412.
• Wigell, Mikael, Vihma, Antto “Geopolitics versus geoeconomics: The case of Russia’s geostrategy and its effects on the EU”, International Affairs, 3/92, (2016), s. 605-627.