Foreign Trade and Economic Growth in MENA Countries: A Panel Causality Analysis Approach

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 1, 137 - 153, 15.06.2021

Selim Demez

Öz

Foreign trade is seen as the dynamics of growth in almost all world economies dominated by globalizing capitalism. As it is known, sustainable growth and development are the primary goals of countries. For this reason, it is a subject that has been studied a lot in the economics literature. In this study, the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth between 2001 and 2017 for 14 countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) country group was examined with Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) panel causality analysis. According to the results of the analysis, it was determined that there is a one-way causality relationship from export to growth, and a two-way causality relationship between growth and import. In the light of the results, it is difficult to say that a growth strategy based on import or export is effective in MENA countries.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Foreign Trade, Growth, MENA Countries, Panel Causality Analysis

MENA ÜLKELERİNDE DIŞ TİCARET VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ: PANEL NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ YAKLAŞIMI

Öz

Küreselleşen kapitalizmin hakim olduğu neredeyse tüm dünya ekonomilerinde dış ticaret büyümenin dinamiği olarak görülmektedir. Bilindiği gibi ülkelerin hedeflerinin başında sürdürülebilir büyüme ve kalkınma gelir. Bu nedenle iktisat literatüründe oldukça fazla çalışılan bir konudur. Bu çalışmada Ortadoğu ve Kuzey Afrika (MENA) ülke grubundaki 14 ülke için 2001 – 2017 yılları arasında dış ticaret ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi Dumitrescu ve Hurlin (2012) panel nedensellik analizi ile incelenmiştir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre ihracattan büyümeye tek yönlü, büyüme ile ithalat arasında ise çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Sonuçların ışığında MENA ülkelerinde ithalata ya da ihracata dayalı bir büyüme stratejisinin etkin olduğunu söylemek güçtür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Dış Ticaret, Büyüme, MENA Ülkeleri, Panel Nedensellik Analizi

Kaynakça

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