Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde doğrudan yabancı yatırım çıkışlarının yurt içi yatırımlara etkisi

Yıl 2021, , 143 - 170, 30.06.2021

Nur Aydın

https://doi.org/10.31795/baunsobed.759453

Öz

Bu çalışmada gelişmekte olan ülkelerde doğrudan yabancı yatırım çıkışlarının yurt içi yatırımlara etkisi araştırılmıştır. Bu kapsamda çalışma, 1993-2018 dönemi için yatay kesit bağımlılığını ele alan panel veri analiz yöntemleriyle incelenmiştir. Serilerin durağanlığı; CADF (2007) panel birim kök testiyle sınanmış ve serilerin birinci farkları alındığında durağan hale geldiği tespit edilmiştir. Seriler arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığı Durbin-Hausman (2008) eşbütünleşme testiyle sınanmış ve seriler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin olduğu görülmüştür. Uzun ve kısa dönem eşbütünleşme katsayıları ise Panel AMG (2009) yöntemiyle tahmin edilmiştir. Uzun dönem analiz sonucunda; gelişmekte olan ülkelerde doğrudan yabancı yatırım çıkışlarındaki %10’luk bir artış ana ülkenin yurt içi yatırımlarını %1.5 oranında arttırdığı görülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım Çıkışları, Ana Ülke, Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler, Yurt İçi Yatırımlar, Panel Veri Analizi

The effect of outward foreign direct investment on domestic investments in developing countries

Öz

In this study, the effect of outward foreign direct
investment on domestic investments were investigated in the developing
countries. In this context, the study was analyzed with panel data analysis
methods, which consider cross-sectional dependency for the period 1993-2018.
Stationarity of the series has been tested by means of CADF (2007) panel unit
root test and they became stationary in the first difference. Cointegration
relationship among series was tested by Durbin-Hausman (2008) panel cointegration test and cointegration relationship has
been observed. Long and short run cointegration coefficients were estimated by
means of the Panel AMG (2009) method. As a result of long term analysis; in developing countries, a 10%
increase in outward foreign direct investment has increased the home country's domestic
investments by 1.5%.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Outward Foreign Direct Investment,, Home Country,, Developing Countries,, Domestic Investments,

Kaynakça

• Acar, S., Eriş, B. ve Tekçe, M. (2012). The Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on Domestic Investment: Evidence from MENA Countries. 14th Annual European Trade Study Group Conference Paper 143.
• Agosin, M. R. ve Mayer, R. (2000). Foreign Investment in Developing Countries: Does it Crowd in Domestic Investment?. UNCTAD Discussion Paper No. 146.
• Agosin, M. R. ve Machado, R. (2005). Foreign Investment in Developing Countries: Does it Crowd in Domestic Investment?. Oxford Development Studies, 33(2), 149-162.
• Amal M. ve Tomio B. T. (2012). Determinants of Brazilian Outward Foreign Direct Investment: A Host Country Perspective. EnANPAD, Rio de Janeiro.
• Al-Sadig, A. J. (2013). Outward Foreign Direct Investment and Domestic Investment: The Case of Developing Countries. IMF Working Paper, Middle East and Central Asia Department, 13(52), 1-27.
• Ali, U. ve Wang, J. J. (2018). Does Outbound Foreign Direct Investment Crowd out Domestic Investment in China? Evidence from Time Series Analysis. Global Economic Review, 47(4), 419-433.
• Ameer, W., Xu, H. ve Alotaish, M. S. M. (2017). Outward Fdi, Domestic Investment and Informal Institutions: Evidence from China. International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Research (IJECR), 7(1), 25-30.
• Andersen, P. S. ve Hainaut, P. (1998). Foreign Direct Investment and Employment in the Industrial Countries. Working Paper No. 61.
• Arndt, C., Buch, C. M. ve Schnitzer, M. (2007). Fdi and Domestic Investment: An Industry-Level View. In: Centre for Economic Policy Research Discussion Paper Series, Discussion Paper No 6464, London.
• Aybar, S. (2016). Determinants of Turkish Outward Foreign Direct Investment. Transnational Corporations Review, 8(1), 79-92.
• Aydın, N. (2018). Türkiye’de Dışa Yabancı Doğrudan Yatırımlar ve İhracat İlişkisi. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, 55(638), 59-77.
• Belderbos, R. (1992). Large Multinational Enterprises Based in A Small Economy: Effects on Domestic Investment. Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), 128(3), 543-557.
• Braunerhjelm, P., Oxelheim, L. ve Thulin, P. (2005). The Relationship between Domestic and Outward Foreign Direct Investment: The role of Industry-Specific Effects. International Business Review, 14(6), 677-694.
• Breusch, T. S. ve Pagan, A. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification Tests in Econometrics. Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253.
• Bulut, E. ve Coşkun, Ç. (2015). Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımlarının Yerli Yatırımlar Üzerine Etkileri: Türkiye Uygulaması. Niğde Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8(4), 1-27.
• Chen, T. J. ve Ku, Y. H. (2000). The Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on Firm Growth: The Case of Taiwan’s Manufactureres. Japan and World Economy, 12(2), 153-172.
• Cheng, L. K. ve Ma, Z. (2007). China’s Outward FDI: Past and Future. School of Economics, Renmin University of China, Working Paper no. 200706001E.
• Chowdhury, M. B. (2011). India’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment: Closed Doors to Open Souk. MPRA Paper No. 32828, 1-38.
• Dam, M. (2014). Sera Gazı Emisyonlarının Makroekonomik Değişkenlerle İlişkisi: OECD Ülkeleri İçin Panel Veri Analizi. Doktora Tezi, Adnan Menderes Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Aydın.
• Dasgupta, N. (2014). Home Country Effect of Fdi Outflows from the BRIC Countries: Study of Domestic Investment. Working Paper, UMBC.
• Dasgupta, N. (2016). Fdi Outflows and Domestic Investment: Substitutes or Complements? Exploring the Indian Experience. Copenhagen Discussion Papers No: 59, 1-50.
• Desai, M. A., Foley, C. F. ve Hines Jr. J. R. (2005a). Foreign Direct Investment and Domestic Economic Activity. NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper 11717.
• Desai, M. A., Foley, F. ve Hines, Jr. J. R. (2005b). Foreign Direct Investment and Domestic Capital Stock. NBER Working Paper, No. 11075, 1-16.
• Dış Ekonomik İlişkiler Kurulu-DEİK (2014). Dünya’da ve Türkiye’de Yurt Dışı Doğrudan Yatırımlar, http://www.deik.org.tr (Erişim Tarihi: 09.07.2016).
• Dunning, J. H. (1988). Explaining International Production, Unwin Hyman: London.
• Dunning, J. H. (1993). Multinational Enterprises and The Global Economy (1th ed.), Wokingham: Addison-Wesley.
• Eberhardt, M. ve Bond, S. (2009). Cross-Section Dependence in Nonstationary Panel Models: A Novel Estimator. Munich Personal RePEc Archive Paper, No: 17692.
• Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (2018). U.S. Energy Information Administration, https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=RBRTE&f=M (Erişim Tarihi: 11.12.2018).
• Feldstein, M. S. (1995). The Effects of Outbound Foreign Direct Investment on the Domestic Capital Stock. In The Effects of Taxation on Multinational Corporations, 43-66.
• Girma, S., Patnaik, I. ve Shah, A. (2010). The Impact of Outbound FDI on Domestic Investment. National Institute of Public Finance and Policy Working Paper.
• Goh, S. K. ve Wong, K. N. (2014). Could Inward Fdi Offset the Substitution Effect of Outward Fdi: Evidence from Malaysia. Prague Economic Papers, 413-425.
• Gondim, I., Ogasavara, M. H. ve Masiero, G. (2018). Effects of Outward Foreign Direct Investment on Domestic Investment: The cases of Brazil and China. Journal of International Development, 1-16.
• Göçer, İ. (2013). Yabancı Doğrudan Yatırımların Verimlilik Ve Makroekonomik Etkileri: Türkiye, Çin ve Hindistan Örneği, Doktora Tezi, Adnan Menderes Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Aydın.
• Güloğlu, B. ve İvrendi, M. (2010). Output Fluctuations: Transitory or Permanent? The Case of Latin America. Applied Economics Letters, 17(4), 381-386.
• Herring, R. ve Willett, T. (1973). The Relationship between US Direct Investment at Home and Abroad. Revista Internazionale dio Scienze Economiche e Commerciale, 20(1), 72-82.
• Herzer, D. ve Schrooten, M. (2008). Outward Fdi and Domestic Investment in Two Industrialized Countries. Economic Letters, 99(1), 139-143.
• Hill, C. W. L. (2009). International Business: Competing in the Global Market Place, London, McGraw-Hill.
• Hsu, W. C., Wang, C. ve Clegg, J. (2015). The Effects of Outward Foreign Direct Investment on Fixed-Capital Formation at Home: The Roles of Host Location and Industry Characteristics. Global Economic Review, 44(3), 353-368.
• Iqbal, B. A., Turay, A., Hasan, M. ve Yusuf, N. (2018). India’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment: Emerging Trends and Issues. Transnational Corporations Review, 10(1), 1-10.
• International Monetary Fund-IMF (2016). World Economic and Financial Surveys, Subdued Demand, Symptoms and Remedies, https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo adresinden alınmıştır.
• Investopedia (2017). https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/outward_direct_investment.asp adresinden alınmıştır.
• Jomo, K. S. (1997). Southeast Asia’s Misunderstood Miracle, WestviewPress.
• Kim, S. (2000). Effects of Outward Foreign Direct Investment on Home Country Performance: Evidence from Korea In: T. Ito and A.O. Krueger, eds. 2000, The Role of Foreign Direct Investment in East Asian Economic Development, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 295-317.
• Kiss, J. (2017). South Africa: A Re-Emerging Player in Outward FDI. Centre for Economic and Regional Studies HAS Institute of World Economics, Working Paper 235, 1-44.
• Knoerich, J. (2017). How Does Outward Foreign Direct Investment Contribute to Economic Development in Less Advanced Home Countries?. Oxford Development Studies, 45(4), 443-459.
• Kurt, S., Sezgin, F. ve Sart, G. (2018). G7 Ülkelerinde Patent Üretimini Etkileyen Değişkenler İçin Panel Veri Analizi. Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi, 16(32), 285-298.
• Liuhto, K. ve Majuri, S. S. (2014). Outward Foreign Direct Investment from Russia: A Literature Review. Journal of East-West Business, 20(4), 198-224.
• Liuhto, K. (2015). Motivations of Russian Firms to Invest Abroad: How Do Sanctions Affect Russia’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment?. Baltic Region, 4(26), 4-19.
• Menyah, K., Nazlıoğlu, Ş. ve Yemane, W. R. (2014). Financial Development, Trade Openness and Economic Growth in African Countries: New İnsights from A Panel Causality Approach. Economic Modelling, 37, 386-394.
• Moosa, I. A. (2002). Foreign Direct Investment: Theory, Evidence and Practice (1th ed.). PalgraveMacmillan, New York.
• Noorzoy, M. S. (1979). Flows of Direct Investment and Their Effects on Investment in Canada. Economics Letters, 2(3), 257-261.
• Perea, J. R. ve Stephenson, M. (2017). Outward FDI from Developing Countries, Global Investment Competitiveness Report 2017/2018: Foreign Investor Perspectives and Policy Implications, 101-134.
• Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, 435, 1-39.
• Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross-Section Dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22, 265-312.
• Pesaran, M. H. ve Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93.
• Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A. ve Yamagata, T. (2008). A Bias-Adjusted Lm Test of Error Cross-Section Independence. Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105-127.
• Rasiah, R., Gammeltoft, P. ve Jiang, Y. (2010). Home Government Policies for Outward FDI from Emerging Economies: Lessons from Asia. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 5(3/4), 333-357.
• Resmi Gazete (1989). Türk Parasının Kıymetini Koruma Hakkında 32 Sayılı Karar, Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Resmi Gazete 20249, 11/08/1989, Ankara.
• Ross, A. G. (2015). An Empirical Analysis of Chinese Outward Foreign Direct Investment in Africa. Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, 8(1), 4-19.
• Sauramo, P. (2008). Does Outward Foreign Direct Investment Reduce Domestic Investment? Macroevidence from Finland. Discussion Papers, No:239.
• Sauvant, K. P., Maschek, W. A. ve McAllister, G. (2009). Foreign Direct Investment by Emerging Market Multinational Enterprises, the Impact of the Financial Crisis and Recession and Challenges Ahead, Global Forum VIII on International Investment, OECD, 7-9 December.
• Sauvant, K. P. ve Chen, V. Z. (2014). China’s Regulatory Framework for Outward Foreign Direct Investment. China Economic Journal, 7(1), 141-163.
• Shuai, F. ve Zhao, W. (2010). The Relationship between Domestic and Outward Foreign Direct Investment in China. BUSM36 Master Thesis in Corporate & Financial Management, Lund University.
• Stevens, G. V. G. ve Lipsey, R. E. (1992). Interactions between Domestic and Foreign Investment. Journal of International Money and Finance, 11(1), 40-62.
• Svensson, R. (1993). Domestic and Foreign Investment by Swedish Multinationals. Working Paper Series 391, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
• Swamy, P. A. V. B. (1970). Efficient Inference in a Random Coefficient Regression Model. Econometrica, 38(2), 311-323.
• Tan, B. W., Goh, S. K. ve Wong, K. N. (2016). The Effects of Inward and Outward Fdi on Domestic Investment: Evidence Using Panel Data of ASEAN-8 Countries. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 17(5), 717-733.
• Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Ekonomi Bakanlığı Yurtdışı Yatırım Raporu (2017). Türkiye’nin Yurtdışı Yatırımları, Serbest Bölgeler, Yurtdışı Yatırım ve Hizmetler Genel Müdürlüğü.
• United Nations Conference on Trade and Development-UNCTAD (2001). Home Country Measures, New York ve Geneva: United Nations.
• United Nations Conference on Trade and Development-UNCTAD (2016). World Investment Report 2016: Investor Nationality: Policy Challenges, New York ve Geneva: United Nations.
• United Nations Conference on Trade and Development-UNCTAD (2018). https://unctad.org/en/Pages/DIAE/World%20Investment%20Report/Annex-Tables.aspx (Erişim Tarihi: 10.11.2018).
• United Nations Conference on Trade and Development-UNCTAD (2019). World Investment Report 2019: Special Economic Zones, New York ve Geneva: United Nations.
• United Nations Conference on Trade and Development-UNCTAD (2020a). Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım Çıkışları (Milyon Dolar), https://unctadstat.unctad.org/wds/ReportFolders/reportFolders.aspx?sCS_ChosenLang=en (Erişim Tarihi: 02.02.2020).
• United Nations Conference on Trade and Development-UNCTAD (2020b). Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım Çıkışlarının Küresel Ekonomi İçerisindeki Payı (%), https://unctadstat.unctad.org/wds/TableViewer/tableView.aspx (Erişim Tarihi: 01.03.2020).
• United Nations Conference on Trade and Development-UNCTAD (2020c). Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım Çıkışlarının GSYİH İçerisindeki Payı (%), https://unctadstat.unctad.org/wds/TableViewer/tableView.aspx (Erişim Tarihi: 01.03.2020).
• United Nations Conference on Trade and Development-UNCTAD (2020d). Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım Çıkışlarının Yurt İçi Yatırımlar İçerisindeki Payı (%), https://unctadstat.unctad.org/wds/TableViewer/tableView.aspx (Erişim Tarihi: 01.03.2020).
• United Nations Conference on Trade and Development-UNCTAD (2020e). Gayri Safi Sabit Sermaye Oluşumu, https://unctadstat.unctad.org/wds/TableViewer/tableView.aspx (Erişim Tarihi: 10.03.2020).
• Verhoef, G. (2016). Latecomer Challenge: African Multinationals from the Periphery. ERSA (Economic Research Southern Africa) Working Paper 570, 1-29.
• Westerlund, J. (2008). Panel Cointegration Tests of The Fisher Effect. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 23(2), 193‐233.
• World Bank (2020). Gayri Safi Sabit Sermaye Oluşumu (Milyon Dolar), https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.GDI.FTOT.CD (Erişim Tarihi: 02.01.2020).
• Yavan, N. (2012). Türkiye’nin Yurt Dışındaki Doğrudan Yatırımları: Tarihsel ve Mekânsal Perspektif. Bilig: Türk Dünyası Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 63, 237-270.
• Yıldırım, C. (2017). Turkey’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment: Trends and Patterns of Mergers and Acquisitions. Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, 19(3), 1-18.
• You, K. ve Solomon, O. H. (2015). China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment and Domestic Investment: An Industrial Level Analysis. China Economic Review, 34, 249-260.
• Yükseler, Z. (2006). Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımları ve İş/Yatırım Ortamı İlişkisi. Türkiye Ekonomi Kurumu, Tartışma Metni 2006/1.