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Finansal Serbestleşme Politikalarının Etkinliği: Yeni Gelişen Piyasa Ekonomilerinden Bazı Deneyimler

Yıl 2016, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 2, 63 - 85, 01.12.2016

Öz

Bu çalışmada, bazı yeni gelişen piyasa ekonomilerinin 2006Q1-2012Q4 dönemi kapsamında uyguladıkları sermaye kontrollerinin etkinliği olay inceleme yaklaşımı ile incelenmektedir. Analiz sonucu elde edilen bulgular, bütün ülkeler için sermaye kontrollerinin net sermaye girişlerini azaltamadığını ortaya koymaktadır. Genel sonuçlar, ilgili ülkelerin uyguladıkları sermaye kontrollerinin istenilen amaca ulaşmada tam olarak başarılı olamadığını göstermektedir. Etkin bir sermaye kontrolleri politikası için, küresel piyasa ajanlarının uygulanan kontrollere verecekleri tepkinin doğru tahmin edilebilmesi ve bu temelde sermaye kontrollerinin iyi tasarlanması ve dikkatlice uygulanması önerilmektedir

Kaynakça

  • Ağcaer, A. (2003). Dalgalı Kur Rejimi Altında Merkez Bankası Müdahalelerinin Etkinliği: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Çalışma. TCMB Uzmanlık Yeterlilik Tezi, Ankara.
  • Akram, G. M. ve Byrne, J. P. (2015). Foreign exchange market pressure and capi- tal controls. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions, and Money. 37: 42-53.
  • Alp, A. (2000). Finansın Uluslararasılaşması, Finansal Krizler, Çözüm Önerileri ve Türkiye Açısından Bir Değerlendirme. Yapı Kredi Yayınları, İstanbul.
  • Ariyoshi, A.; Habermeier, K. ve Laurens, B. (2000). Capital Controls: Coutry Expe- riences With Their Use and Liberalization. IMF Occasional Paper, No:190.
  • Baba, C.; Kokenyne, A. ve Habermeier, K. (2011). The Effectiveness of Capital Controls and Prudential Policies in Managing Large Inflows. IMF Staff Discussion Note.
  • Bacchetta, P. (1992). Liberalization of Capital Movements and of the Domestic Financial System. Economica London School of Economics and Political Science. 59: 465-474.
  • Bloomfield, A. (1946). Postwar Control of International Capital Movements. The American Economic Review Papers and Preceedings. 36: 687-709.
  • Balin, B. J. (2008). India’s New Capital Restrictions: What Are They, Why Were They Created, and Have They Been Effective? The Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, Washington DC.
  • Calvo, G. A. (1998). Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Econo- mics of Sudden Stop. Journal of Applied Economics. 1 (1): 35-54.
  • Cardenas, M. ve Barrera, F. (1997). On the Effectiveness of Capital Controls: The Experience of Colombia During the 1990s. Journal of Development.Economics. 54(1): 27-57.
  • Cardoso, E. ve Goldfajn, I. (1998). Capital Flows to Brazil: The Endogeneity of Capital Controls. IMF Staff Papers, 45(1): 161–202.
  • Chamon, M. ve Garcia, M. (2014). Capital controls in Brazil: Effective? 15th Jac- ques Polak Annual Research Conference.
  • (https://www.imf.org/external/np/res/seminars/2014/arc/pdf/chamon_gar- cia.pdf)
  • Clements, B. J. ve Kamil, H. (2009). Are Capital Controls Effective in the 21. Century? The Recent Experience of Colombia. IMF Working Paper. No. 09/30.
  • De Jong, F.; Kemma, A. ve Kloek, T. (1992). A Contribution to Event Study Me- tedology with an Amplication to the Dutch Stock Market. Center for Economic Research, 16 (1): 11-36.
  • Dell’Erba, S. ve Reinhardt, D. (2015). FDI, Debt and Capital Controls. Journal of International Money and Finance. 58: 29-50.
  • Demiral, M.; Bal, H. ve Algan, N. (2015). Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler Küresel Serma- yeyi Çekme Konusunda Niçin Başarısız Olmaktadırlar? Balkan Ülkeleri İçin Lucas Paradoksunun Yeniden İncelenmesi. Ç.Ü. Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 34(1): 13-30.
  • Edison, H. ve Reinhart, C. M. (2001). Stopping Hot Money. Journal of Devop- ment Economics. 66(2): 533-553.
  • Edwards, S. (1987). Sequencing Economic Liberalization in Developing Countri- es. Finance & Development, 26-30.
  • Eichengreen, B. (1998). Globalizing Capital: A History of the International Mone- tary System. New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
  • Epstein, G. A. ve Schor, J. B. (1992). Structural Determinants of Economic Ef- fects of Capital Controls in OECD Countries. Financial Openness and National Autonomy, Opportunities and Constraints. (Ed.) Banuri, T. ve J. B. Schor. Claren- don Press: Oxford, 114-121.
  • Ergül, Ö. (2012). Sermaye Kontrolleri: Uygulanışı, Etkinliği ve Türkiye Üzerine Yorumlar. Uzmanlık Yeterlilik Tezi TC Merkez Bankası: Ankara.
  • Fan, E. X. (2004). A Note on Dual/Multiple Exchange Rates. ERDvPolicyvBrief, No.26.
  • Fatum, R. ve Hutchison, M. (1999). Is Intervention a Signal of Future Monetary Policy? Evidence from the Federal Funds Futures Market. Journal of Money, Cre- dit, and Banking. 31(1): 54-69.
  • Fatum, R. ve Hutchison, M. (2003) Is Sterilised Foreign Exchange Intervention Effective After All? An Event Study Approach. The Economic Journal. 113: 390- 411.
  • Fernandez, A., Rebucci, A. ve Uribe, M. (2015). Are Capital Controls Countercy- clical? Journal of Monetary Economics, 76: 1-14.
  • Fratzscher, M. (2012). Capital Controls and Foreign Exchange Policy. European Central Bank Working Paper Series, No. 1415.
  • Jadhav, P. (2012). Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in BRICS Economi- es: Analysis of Economic. İnstitutional and Political Faktor, Social and Behavioral Sciences. 37: 5-14.
  • Johnston, R. B. ve Tamirisa, N. T. (1998). Why Do Countries Use Capital Cont- rols? IMF Working Paper. 98/181.
  • Kaplinsky, R. ve Morris, M. (2009). Do The Asian Drivers Undermine Export-Ori- ented Industrialization in SSA? World Development. 36(2): 254-273.
  • Kara, M. A. ve Kar, M. (2005). Yabancı Sermaye Çeşitlerinin Yatırımlar ve Tasar- ruflar Üzerine Etkilerinin Ekonometrik Analizi. İktisat İşletme Finans Dergisi, 20 (228): 93-108.
  • Kee, H. L., Nicita, A. & Olarreaga, M. (2008). Import Demand Elasticities and Trade Distortions. Review of Economics and Statistics. 90(4): 666-682.
  • Keskin, N.. (2008). Finansal Serbestleşme Sürecinde Uluslararası Sermaye Ha- reketleri ve Makroekonomik Etkileri: Türkiye Örneği. Doktora Tezi. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü: İzmir.
  • Kokeyne, A.; Nowak, S.; Psalida, E. ve Sun, T. (2010). Global Liquidity Expansion: Effects on Receiving Economies And Policy Response Options. IMF Global Finan- cial Stability Report.
  • Magud, N. ve Reinhart, C. M. (2006). Capital Controls: An Evaluation. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper. 11973: 1-40.
  • Magud, N.; Reinhart, C. ve Rogoff, K. (2011). Capital Controls: Myth and Reality, A Portfolio Balance Approach. National Bureu of Economic Research Working Paper Series. No. 16805.
  • Neely, C. J. (1999). An Introduction to Capital Controls. Review of Federal Re- serve Bank of St. Lois, 1-18.
  • Ostry, J. D.; Ghosh, A.R; Habermeier, K.; Chamon, M; Qureshi, M.S. ve Rein- hardt, D.B.S. (2010). Capital Inflows: The Role of Controls, IMF Staff Position Note, SPN/10/04: 1-30.
  • Ostry, J. D..; Ghosh, A.R; Habermeier, K.; Laeven, L.; Chamon, M.; Qureshi, M.S. ve Kekenyne, A. (2011). Managing Capital Inflows: What Tools to Use?, IMF Staff Discussion Note, SDN/11/06: 1-41.
  • Pandev, R.; Pasricha, G. K.; Patnaik, I. ve Shah, A. (2015). Motivation and Capital Controls and Their Effectiveness. Bank of Canada Working Paper/Document de Travail,Sayı 5.
  • Park, Y. C. ve Won-Am, P. (1995). Capital Movements, Real Assets Speculati- on and Macroeconomic Adjustment in Korea. Capital Controls, Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy in the World Economy. (Ed.) Sebastiyan Edwards. London: Cambridge University Press, 22-48.
  • Pikety, T. (2014). Yirmi Birinci Yüzyılda Kapital (Çev: Hande Koçak). İş Bankası Kültür Yayınları, İstanbul.
  • Razin, A. ve Sadka, E. (1991). Efficient Investment Incentives in the Presence of Capital Flight. Journal of International Economics, 31: 171-181.
  • Reinhart, C. M. ve Reinhart, V. R. (1998). Some Lessons for Policy Makers Who Deal With the Mixed Blessing of Capital Inflows (Edt: M. Kahler). Capital Flows and Financial Crises. New York: Cornell University Press, 93–127
  • Straetmans, S. T. M.; Versteeg, R. J. ve Wolff, C. C. P. (2013). Are capital cont- rols in the foreign exchange market effective? Journal of International Money and Finance. 35: 36-53.
  • Tornell, A. (1990). Real vs. Financial Investment Can Tobin Taxes Eliminate the Irreversibility Distortion? Journal of Development Economics, 32: 419-444. 47. BIS (2015).
  • https://www.bis.org/statistics/eer.htm?m=6%7C187 (04.08.2015).

The Effectiveness of Financial Liberalization Policies: The Experiences of Some Emerging Market Economies

Yıl 2016, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 2, 63 - 85, 01.12.2016

Öz

In this study, the effectiveness of capital controls implemented in some emerging market economies during 2006Q1-2012Q4 period is investigated by the event study approach. According to the findings obtained by the event study approach, capital controls do not curb net capital inflows in all cases. The overall results suggest that capital controls is not fully achieving the desired objectives for the countries in question. For an effective capital controls policy, it is recommended that the responses of global market agents to the capital controls should be estimated correctly and the capital controls should be well-designed and implemented carefully on this basis

Kaynakça

  • Ağcaer, A. (2003). Dalgalı Kur Rejimi Altında Merkez Bankası Müdahalelerinin Etkinliği: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Çalışma. TCMB Uzmanlık Yeterlilik Tezi, Ankara.
  • Akram, G. M. ve Byrne, J. P. (2015). Foreign exchange market pressure and capi- tal controls. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions, and Money. 37: 42-53.
  • Alp, A. (2000). Finansın Uluslararasılaşması, Finansal Krizler, Çözüm Önerileri ve Türkiye Açısından Bir Değerlendirme. Yapı Kredi Yayınları, İstanbul.
  • Ariyoshi, A.; Habermeier, K. ve Laurens, B. (2000). Capital Controls: Coutry Expe- riences With Their Use and Liberalization. IMF Occasional Paper, No:190.
  • Baba, C.; Kokenyne, A. ve Habermeier, K. (2011). The Effectiveness of Capital Controls and Prudential Policies in Managing Large Inflows. IMF Staff Discussion Note.
  • Bacchetta, P. (1992). Liberalization of Capital Movements and of the Domestic Financial System. Economica London School of Economics and Political Science. 59: 465-474.
  • Bloomfield, A. (1946). Postwar Control of International Capital Movements. The American Economic Review Papers and Preceedings. 36: 687-709.
  • Balin, B. J. (2008). India’s New Capital Restrictions: What Are They, Why Were They Created, and Have They Been Effective? The Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, Washington DC.
  • Calvo, G. A. (1998). Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Econo- mics of Sudden Stop. Journal of Applied Economics. 1 (1): 35-54.
  • Cardenas, M. ve Barrera, F. (1997). On the Effectiveness of Capital Controls: The Experience of Colombia During the 1990s. Journal of Development.Economics. 54(1): 27-57.
  • Cardoso, E. ve Goldfajn, I. (1998). Capital Flows to Brazil: The Endogeneity of Capital Controls. IMF Staff Papers, 45(1): 161–202.
  • Chamon, M. ve Garcia, M. (2014). Capital controls in Brazil: Effective? 15th Jac- ques Polak Annual Research Conference.
  • (https://www.imf.org/external/np/res/seminars/2014/arc/pdf/chamon_gar- cia.pdf)
  • Clements, B. J. ve Kamil, H. (2009). Are Capital Controls Effective in the 21. Century? The Recent Experience of Colombia. IMF Working Paper. No. 09/30.
  • De Jong, F.; Kemma, A. ve Kloek, T. (1992). A Contribution to Event Study Me- tedology with an Amplication to the Dutch Stock Market. Center for Economic Research, 16 (1): 11-36.
  • Dell’Erba, S. ve Reinhardt, D. (2015). FDI, Debt and Capital Controls. Journal of International Money and Finance. 58: 29-50.
  • Demiral, M.; Bal, H. ve Algan, N. (2015). Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler Küresel Serma- yeyi Çekme Konusunda Niçin Başarısız Olmaktadırlar? Balkan Ülkeleri İçin Lucas Paradoksunun Yeniden İncelenmesi. Ç.Ü. Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 34(1): 13-30.
  • Edison, H. ve Reinhart, C. M. (2001). Stopping Hot Money. Journal of Devop- ment Economics. 66(2): 533-553.
  • Edwards, S. (1987). Sequencing Economic Liberalization in Developing Countri- es. Finance & Development, 26-30.
  • Eichengreen, B. (1998). Globalizing Capital: A History of the International Mone- tary System. New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
  • Epstein, G. A. ve Schor, J. B. (1992). Structural Determinants of Economic Ef- fects of Capital Controls in OECD Countries. Financial Openness and National Autonomy, Opportunities and Constraints. (Ed.) Banuri, T. ve J. B. Schor. Claren- don Press: Oxford, 114-121.
  • Ergül, Ö. (2012). Sermaye Kontrolleri: Uygulanışı, Etkinliği ve Türkiye Üzerine Yorumlar. Uzmanlık Yeterlilik Tezi TC Merkez Bankası: Ankara.
  • Fan, E. X. (2004). A Note on Dual/Multiple Exchange Rates. ERDvPolicyvBrief, No.26.
  • Fatum, R. ve Hutchison, M. (1999). Is Intervention a Signal of Future Monetary Policy? Evidence from the Federal Funds Futures Market. Journal of Money, Cre- dit, and Banking. 31(1): 54-69.
  • Fatum, R. ve Hutchison, M. (2003) Is Sterilised Foreign Exchange Intervention Effective After All? An Event Study Approach. The Economic Journal. 113: 390- 411.
  • Fernandez, A., Rebucci, A. ve Uribe, M. (2015). Are Capital Controls Countercy- clical? Journal of Monetary Economics, 76: 1-14.
  • Fratzscher, M. (2012). Capital Controls and Foreign Exchange Policy. European Central Bank Working Paper Series, No. 1415.
  • Jadhav, P. (2012). Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in BRICS Economi- es: Analysis of Economic. İnstitutional and Political Faktor, Social and Behavioral Sciences. 37: 5-14.
  • Johnston, R. B. ve Tamirisa, N. T. (1998). Why Do Countries Use Capital Cont- rols? IMF Working Paper. 98/181.
  • Kaplinsky, R. ve Morris, M. (2009). Do The Asian Drivers Undermine Export-Ori- ented Industrialization in SSA? World Development. 36(2): 254-273.
  • Kara, M. A. ve Kar, M. (2005). Yabancı Sermaye Çeşitlerinin Yatırımlar ve Tasar- ruflar Üzerine Etkilerinin Ekonometrik Analizi. İktisat İşletme Finans Dergisi, 20 (228): 93-108.
  • Kee, H. L., Nicita, A. & Olarreaga, M. (2008). Import Demand Elasticities and Trade Distortions. Review of Economics and Statistics. 90(4): 666-682.
  • Keskin, N.. (2008). Finansal Serbestleşme Sürecinde Uluslararası Sermaye Ha- reketleri ve Makroekonomik Etkileri: Türkiye Örneği. Doktora Tezi. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü: İzmir.
  • Kokeyne, A.; Nowak, S.; Psalida, E. ve Sun, T. (2010). Global Liquidity Expansion: Effects on Receiving Economies And Policy Response Options. IMF Global Finan- cial Stability Report.
  • Magud, N. ve Reinhart, C. M. (2006). Capital Controls: An Evaluation. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper. 11973: 1-40.
  • Magud, N.; Reinhart, C. ve Rogoff, K. (2011). Capital Controls: Myth and Reality, A Portfolio Balance Approach. National Bureu of Economic Research Working Paper Series. No. 16805.
  • Neely, C. J. (1999). An Introduction to Capital Controls. Review of Federal Re- serve Bank of St. Lois, 1-18.
  • Ostry, J. D.; Ghosh, A.R; Habermeier, K.; Chamon, M; Qureshi, M.S. ve Rein- hardt, D.B.S. (2010). Capital Inflows: The Role of Controls, IMF Staff Position Note, SPN/10/04: 1-30.
  • Ostry, J. D..; Ghosh, A.R; Habermeier, K.; Laeven, L.; Chamon, M.; Qureshi, M.S. ve Kekenyne, A. (2011). Managing Capital Inflows: What Tools to Use?, IMF Staff Discussion Note, SDN/11/06: 1-41.
  • Pandev, R.; Pasricha, G. K.; Patnaik, I. ve Shah, A. (2015). Motivation and Capital Controls and Their Effectiveness. Bank of Canada Working Paper/Document de Travail,Sayı 5.
  • Park, Y. C. ve Won-Am, P. (1995). Capital Movements, Real Assets Speculati- on and Macroeconomic Adjustment in Korea. Capital Controls, Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy in the World Economy. (Ed.) Sebastiyan Edwards. London: Cambridge University Press, 22-48.
  • Pikety, T. (2014). Yirmi Birinci Yüzyılda Kapital (Çev: Hande Koçak). İş Bankası Kültür Yayınları, İstanbul.
  • Razin, A. ve Sadka, E. (1991). Efficient Investment Incentives in the Presence of Capital Flight. Journal of International Economics, 31: 171-181.
  • Reinhart, C. M. ve Reinhart, V. R. (1998). Some Lessons for Policy Makers Who Deal With the Mixed Blessing of Capital Inflows (Edt: M. Kahler). Capital Flows and Financial Crises. New York: Cornell University Press, 93–127
  • Straetmans, S. T. M.; Versteeg, R. J. ve Wolff, C. C. P. (2013). Are capital cont- rols in the foreign exchange market effective? Journal of International Money and Finance. 35: 36-53.
  • Tornell, A. (1990). Real vs. Financial Investment Can Tobin Taxes Eliminate the Irreversibility Distortion? Journal of Development Economics, 32: 419-444. 47. BIS (2015).
  • https://www.bis.org/statistics/eer.htm?m=6%7C187 (04.08.2015).
Toplam 47 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Research Article
Yazarlar

Harun Bal Bu kişi benim

Emrah Eray Akça Bu kişi benim

Ömer Demir

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Aralık 2016
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2016 Cilt: 10 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Bal, H., Akça, E. E., & Demir, Ö. (2016). Finansal Serbestleşme Politikalarının Etkinliği: Yeni Gelişen Piyasa Ekonomilerinden Bazı Deneyimler. BDDK Bankacılık Ve Finansal Piyasalar Dergisi, 10(2), 63-85.