Asymmetric Relationship between Institutional Quality and Remittance Inflows: Empirical Evidence for Turkey

Yıl 2017, Cilt: 2 Sayı: 3, 189 - 204, 30.09.2017

Şerife Özşahin , Gülbahar Üçler

https://doi.org/10.25229/beta.333016

Öz

This study aims to examine the asymmetric causal relationship between the institutional quality index and remittance inflows in Turkey using the monthly data for the period between January 1985 and December 2014. To this end, the institutional quality index is formulated based on the eight different institutional quality indicators released by ICRG (International Country Risk Guide). Stationarity analyses of the variables are conducted with the LM two structural breaks unit root test developed by Lee and Strazicich (2003), while the existence of asymmetric causal relationship is examined with Hatemi-J (2012) asymmetric causality test. The findings obtained from the asymmetric causality test reveal that the improvement in the level of institutional quality does not affect remittance positively, whereas negative shocks in the level of institutional quality cause a negative shock in remittance inflows.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Remittance Inflows, Institutional Quality, ICRG, Hatemi-J (2012) Asymmetric Causality Test

Kurumsal Kalite ve Göçmen Gönderileri Arasındaki Asimetrik İlişki: Türkiye Üzerine Ampirik Bulgular

Öz

Bu çalışma Türkiye’de kurumsal kalite endeksi ile göçmen gönderisi girişleri arasındaki asimetrik nedensellik ilişkisini 1985.1-2014.12 dönemi aylık veri ile araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Bu doğrultuda öncelikle ICRG tarafından yayınlanan 8 farklı kurumsal kalite göstergesinden hareketle kurumsal kalite endeksi oluşturulmuştur. Değişkenlerin durağanlık analizi iki yapısal kırılmalı Lee ve Strazicich (2003) birim kök testi yardımıyla, nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığı ise Hatemi-J (2012) asimetrik nedensellik testi ile araştırılmıştır. Asimetrik nedensellik testinden elde edilen bulgular kurumsal kalite düzeyindeki iyileşmenin göçmen gönderilerinde bir artışa neden olmazken, kurumsal kalite düzeyinde ortaya çıkacak bir bozulmanın göçmen gönderileri üzerinde negatif bir etkiye neden olduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Göçmen Gönderisi Girişleri, Kurumsal Kalite, ICRG, Hatemi-J (2012) Asimetrik Nedensellik Testi

Kaynakça

• Abdih, Y., Chami, R., Dagher, J. and Montiel, P. (2012). Remittances and institutions: are remittances a curse? World Development, 40(4), 657-666.
• Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S. and Robinson, J. (2001). The colonial origins of comparative development: An empirical investigation, American Economic Review 91(5), 1369–401.
• Augural, R. and Horowıtz, A. (2002). Are international remittances altruism or insurance? evidence from Guyana using multiple-migrant households, World Development, Vol. 30(11), 2033-2044.
• Aydas, K. Ozcan, M. and Neyapti, B. (2005). Determinants of workers’ remittances: the case of Turkey, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 41 (3), 53-69.
• Bang, J., Mitra. A and Wunnava. P. (2013). Financial liberalization and remittances: recent longitudinal evidence, IZA DP No. 7497
• Bettin, G., A. F. Presbitero, and Spatafora, N. (2013). Remittances and vulnerability in developing countries, Working Paper, International Monetary Fund.
• Brown, R. (1997). Estimating remittance functions for pacific island migrants, World Development, 25 (4), 613-626.
• Catrinescu, N., Leon-Ledesma, M., Piracha, M. and Quillin, B. (2009). Remittances, institutions and economic growth, World Development, 37 (1), 81-92
• Dickey, D. and Fuller, W. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431.
• Docquıer, F. and Rapoport, H. (2003). Remittances and inequality: a dynamic migration model, IZA Discussion Paper No. 808, Institute for the Study of Labor, Bonn.
• Dorantes, C.A. and Pozo, S. (2006). Migration, remittances and male and female employment patterns, American Economic Review, 96(2), 222-226.
• Durand, J., Kandel, W., Parrado, E.A. and Massey,D.S. (1996). International migration and development in Mexican communities, Demography, 33(2), 249– 64.
• Freund, C. and Spatafora, N. (2008). Remittances, transaction costs and informality, Journal of Development Economics, 86 (2), 356-366.
• Germenji, E., Beka, I. and Sarris, A. (2001). Estimating remittance functions for rural-based Albanian emigrants, Working Paper, ACE research project, P97-8158-R: Microeconomic Analysis of Farm Restructuring in Central and Eastern Europe.
• Glytsos, N.P. (1997). Remitting behaviour of temporary and permanent migrants: the case of Greeks in Germany and Australia, Labour, 11(3), 409-435.
• Glytsos, N.P. (1988). Remittances in temporary migration: A theoretical model and Its testing with the Greek-German experience, Weltwirtschaftliches Anrhiv, 124(3), 524-549.
• Giuliano, P. and Ruiz-Arranz, M. (2009). Remittances, financial development, and growth, Journal of Development Economics, 90(1), 144–152.
• Hatemi-J, A. (2012). Asymmetric causality tests with an application, Empirical Economics, 43, 447-456.
• Hatemi-J, A. Ajmi, A., El Montasser, G., Inglesi-Lotz, R. and Gupta, R. (2016). Research output and economic growth in G7 countries: New evidence from asymmetric panel causality testing, Applied Economics, 48(24), 2301-2308.
• Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P.C.B., Schmidt, P. and Shin, Y. (1992), Testing the null of stationary against the alternative of a unit root: how sure are we that economic time series have a unit root? Journal of Econometrics, 54(1), 159-178.
• Lartey, E.K.K. and Mengova, E. (2016). Does institutional quality in developing countries affect remittances?, The Journal of Developing Areas, 50(1), 59-76.
• Lee, J. and Strazicich, M.C. (2003). Minimum lagrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 1082-1089.
• Lucas, R.E.B. and Stark, O. (1985). Motivations to remit: Evidence from Botswana”, Journal of Political Economy, 93(5), 901-918.
• Lowell, B.L. and De La Garza, R.O. (2000). The developmental role of remittances in US Latino communities and in Latin American countries, A Final Project Report, Inter-American Dialogue.
• Ilahi, N. and Jafarey, S. (1999). Guestworker migration, remittances and the extended family: evidence from Pakistan.” Journal of Development Economics 2: 485-512.
• IMF (2005). World Economic Outlook 2005. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
• IMF (2005). World Economic Outlook: Globalization And External Imbalances, International Monetary Fund, (April), Washington DC.
• Niimi, Y., Caglar, O. and Schiff, M. (2010). Remittances and the brain drain: Skilled migrants do remit less.” Annales d’Economie et de Statistique (97-98) :123–141.
• North, D.C. (1990). Institutions, Institutional Change And Economic Performance. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
• Phillips, P. and Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression, Biometrica, 75, 335-346.
• Rodrik, D. (2000). Institutions for high-quality growth: What they are and how to acquire them?, Studies in Comparative International Development, 35(3), 3-31.
• Rodrik, D. (2004). Getting institutions right: Institutions and economic performance, CESifo DICE report: Journal for Institutional Comparions; the international platform of Ludwing-Maximilians University’s Center for Economic Studies and the Ifo Institue, 2(2).
• Rodrik, D., Subramanian, A. and Trebbi, F. (2004). Institutions rule: The primacy of institutions over geography and integration in economic development, Journal of Economic Growth, 9(2), 131-165.
• Singh, R. J. (2012). From Shock Absorber to Shock Transmitter: Determinants of Remittances in Sub-Saharan Africa, In Migration and Remittances during the Global Crisis and Beyond, edited by Ibrahim Sirkeci, Jeffery H. Cohen, and Dilip Ratha, World Bank Publications, 349-357.
• Straubhaar, T. (1986). The determinants of worker’s remittances: The case of Turkey”, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 122(4), 728-740.
• Yuni, D., Omeje, A., Asogwa, H. (2013). Determinants of remittance: Panel evidence from selected countries in Africa, Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 4(20), 52-57.