Seçilmiş OECD Ülkelerinde GSYİH Durağanlık Sınaması: Keskin ve Yumuşak Kırılmalı Panel Durağanlık Testi

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 2, 216 - 226, 25.10.2020

Gökhan Konat , Oktay Kızılkaya

Öz

Makroekonomik bir değişken üzerinde meydana gelebilecek bir şokun etkisinin kalıcı ya da geçici olup olmadığını araştırmak önemli bir konudur. Çünkü şokun etkisi olumsuz bir etkiye sebep olabilmekte ve bu durum değişkenin seyrini etkileyebilmektedir. Bu nedenle politika yapıcılar için makro ekonomik değişkenlerden biri olan büyüme serisinin uzun dönemde nasıl bir trend izlediğini tahmin etmek önem arz etmektedir. Bu amaçla çalışmada, 1970-2019 dönemi yıllık veriler kullanılarak 28 OECD ülkesi için kişi başı reel GSYİH’nın durağan olup olmadığını araştırılmıştır. Ekonometrik yöntem olarak yapısal kırılmaları dikkate almayan ve Pesaran (2006) tarafından geliştirilen CADF ve CIPS testleri ile keskin ve yumuşak kırılmaları dikkate alan Li vd. (2015) panel birim kök testi kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlar kişi başı reel GSYİH serisinin Avusturalya, Avusturya, Fransa, Meksika, Yeni Zelanda, Güney Kore ve İsveç için durağan olduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kişi Başına Reel GSYİH, Panel Veri Analizi, Birim Kök Testi, Yapısal Kırılma

Kaynakça

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