Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme ve Enflasyonun Askeri Harcamalar Üzerindeki Etkisi: ARDL Analizi

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 1, 87 - 108, 30.04.2023

Atilla Aydın

https://doi.org/10.38057/bifd.1263880

Cited By: 1

Öz

İkinci Dünya Savaşı sonrasında tüm dünyada askeri harcamalar artış eğilimine girmiştir. Günümüzün küreselleşen dünyasında askeri harcamalar, ekonomik bir unsur olarak değerlendirilmektedir. Türkiye’de de askeri harcamalar kamu harcamaları içinde önemli bir yer tutmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye için 1980 sonrasında enflasyon ve ekonomik büyümenin askeri harcamalar üzerindeki etkisini araştırmaktır. Çalışmada yöntem olarak ARDL yöntemi ve Sınır Testi kullanılmıştır. Yapılan analizlerde değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi saptanmıştır. Çalışmanın sonuçlarına göre enflasyonun askeri harcamalar üzerindeki etkisi pozitif bulunmuştur. Kişi başına GSYH artışlarının askeri harcamalar üzerindeki etkisi ise negatif olarak tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca hata düzeltme modeli kurulmuş ve kısa dönem sapmaların uzun dönemde ortadan kalktığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Askeri Harcamalar, Enflasyon, Ekonomik Büyüme, ARDL

The Effect of Economic Growth and Inflation on Military Expenditures in Turkey: ARDL Analysis

Öz

Worldwide military expenditures tended to rise following the Second World War. In today's globalizing world, military expenditures are considered as an economic element. Military expenditures also have an important place in public expenditures in Turkey. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of inflation and economic growth on military expenditures for Turkey after 1980. ARDL method and Boundary Test were used as methods in the study. In the analyzes made, a cointegration relationship was found between the variables. According to the results of the study, the effect of inflation on military expenditures was found to be positive. The effect of per capita GDP increases on military expenditures was found to be negative. In addition, the error correction model was established and it was concluded that short-term deviations disappeared in the long-term.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Military Expenditures, Inflation, Economic Growth, ARDL

Kaynakça

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