Kentsel ve Kırsal Oy Verme Eğilimi: Bosna-Hersek 2014 Parlemento Seçimleri Örneği

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 19, 1 - 9, 30.06.2021

Sejma Aydın

Öz

Bu çalışma 2014 yılında Bosna-Hersek’te yapılan parlamento seçimlerinin sonuçlarına göre kırsal ve kentsel bölgelerdeki seçmenlerin seçime katılan siyasi partilerin ideolojik temellerine göre yaptıkları oy tercihlerini analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu çalışma Bosna-Hersek’te seçimde oy veren kırsal ve kentsel seçmenlerin sağ ve sol kanattaki siyasi partilere olan desteğinde oldukça anlamlı (yüzde 10 civarında) bir fark olduğunu tespit etmiştir. Bu fark Bosna-Hersek Federasyonu’nda (FBH) Sırp Cumhuriyeti’ne (RS) kıyasla çok daha barizdir. Bu durumun temel nedeni Sırp Cumhuriyeti’nde sol kanatta sayılabilecek bir partinin belirlenmesindeki zorluktur. Teoride hangi partinin sağ, hangi partinin sol parti olduğunun belirlenmesi parti programına ve halka açık dokümanlara bakılarak kolay bir şekilde yapılabilir; ancak pratikte Sırp Cumhuriyeti için bu belirleme düşünüldüğü kadar kolay değildir. Sırp Cumhuriyeti’nde tüm partiler az veya çok ırkçı siyasi söyleme ve duruşa sahiptirler ve bu durum bu partileri temel olarak sağ partiler haline getirmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Seçim, Oy, Kırsal, Kentsel, Bosna-Hersek, Sırp Cumhuriyeti

Urban and Rural Voting Tendency: Case of Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2014 Parliamentary Elections

Öz

This paper aims to analyze the preference of the urban and rural voters with regards to the ideological foundation of the political parties participated in 2014 parliamentary elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The study finds that there is a significant difference (around 10 percent) between the rural and urban voters in their support for right-wing and left-wing political parties. This difference is more remarkable in the Federation (FBH) than in the entity of the Republika Srpska (RS). This is mainly because of the difficulty of identifying a left-wing party in RS. In theory, it is straightforward and easy to distinguish and classify political parties on the right and left of the political spectrum on the basis of their programs and available documents but it is not that easy in reality. More or less, all parties in RS have strong nationalist views and stand which makes them essentially right-wing parties.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Election, Voting, Urban, Rural, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Republika Srpska

Kaynakça

• Bojić, M. (2001). Historija Bosne i Bošnjaka (VII-XX vijek). Sarajevo: Šahinpašić.
• Central elections commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (2014). Statistics and Elections’ Results. (Accessed on: 15.01.2020), izbori.ba/Default.aspx?CategoryID=421&Lang=6
• Conroy-Krutz, J.K. (2009). Who are Africa's (non) ethnic voters? Evaluating theories on the salience of ethnicity in African electoral politics. APSA 2009 Toronto Meeting Paper. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1451732, accessed on February 12, 2021.
• Donia, R. J., & Fine, J. V.A. (1994). Bosnia: A Tradition Betrayed. New York: Columbia University Press.
• Dupuy, K., & Prakash, A. (2020). Why restrictive NGO foreign funding laws reduce voter turnout in Africa’s national elections. Nonprofit and Voluntary Sector Quarterly. Symposium Issue, 1-20.
• Filandra, Š. (1998). Bošnjačka Politika u XX. Stoljeću. Sarajevo: Sejtarija.
• Francia, P.L., & Baumgartner, J. (2005-2006). Victim or victor of the “Culture war?” How cultural issues affect support for George W. Bush in rural America.” American Review of Politics, 26 (winter), 349-367.
• Fred, C., & Jenkins, R. Where one lives and what one thinks: Implications of rural-urban opinion cleavages for Canadian federalism. In Telford, H., & Lazar, H. (2002). Canada: The State of the Federation 2001: Canadian Political Culture(s) in Transition, Montreal, McGill-Queen's University Press, 367-390.
• Gainsborough Juliet F., (2005). Voters in context: Cities, suburbs and presidential vote, American Political Science Research, 33(3), 435-461.
• Gidengil, E., Blais, A., Everitt, J., Fournier, P., & Nevitte, N. (2006). Back to the future? Making sense of the 2004 Canadian election outside Quebec. Canadian Journal of Political Science, 39(1), 1-25.
• Harding, R. (2010). Urban-rural differences in support for incumbents across Africa, Working paper no. 120, available at: https://afrobarometer.org/sites/default/files/publications/Working%20paper/AfropaperNo120.pdf accessed on February 12, 2021.
• Imamović, M. (1996). Historija Bošnjaka. Sarajevo: Preporod.
• Imamović, M. (2006). Bosnia and Herzegovina: Evolution of its Political and Legal Institutions. Sarajevo: Magistrat.
• Jaffrelot, C., & Kumar, S. (2015). The impact of urbanization on the electoral results of the 2014 Indian elections: With special reference to the BJP vote. Studies in Indian Politics. 3(1), 39-49.
• Jeffries, R. (1998). The Ghanaian elections of 1996: Towards the consolidation of democracy? African Affairs 97(387), 189–208.
• Key V.O. Jr. [1949] (1996). Southern Politics in State and Nation, Knoxville: University of Tennessee.
• Koter, D. (2013). Urban and rural voting patterns in Senegal: the spatial aspects of incumbency, c. 1978-2012. The Journal of Modern African Studies, 51(4), 653-679.
• Kovacs, Z., & Vida, G. (2015). Geography of the new electoral system and changing voting patterns in Hungary. Acta Geobalcanica. 1(2), 55-64.
• Marcinkiewicz, K. (2018). The economy or an urban–rural divide? Explaining spatial patterns of voting behavior in Poland. East European Politics & Societies. 32(4), 693-719.
• McKee, S.C., & Daron, R.S. (2003). Sub-urban voting in presidential elections. Presidential Studies Quarterly, 33(1), 135-144.
• Mukerji, S. (2015). Understanding urban–rural patterns of BJP campaigning in UP (Lok Sabha Elections 2014). Studies in Indian Politics. 3(1), 111-123.
• Nikšić, S., (2020), Bosnian Serb Leader Calls for Dissolution of Bosnia. Available at: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-02-20/bosnian-serb-leader-calls-for-dissolution-of-bosnia, accessed on February 15, 2020.
• Pugh, M., & Cobble, M. (2001). Non-nationalist voting in Bosnian municipal elections: Implications for democracy and peace-building. Journal of Peace Research, 38(1), 27-47.
• Resnick, D. (2011). In the shadow of the city: Africa's urban poor in opposition strongholds. The Journal of Modern African Studies, 49(1), 141-166.
• Riambau, G., Stillman, S. & Boe-Gibson, G. (2017). What determines preferences for an electoral system? Evidence from a binding referendum. IZA Discussion Papers 10987, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA). Available at: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3015933, accessed on February 9, 2021.
• Roy, J., Perrella, A.M.L., & Borden, J. (2015). Rural, suburban and urban voters: Dissecting residence based voter cleavages in provincial elections. Canadian political Science Review, 9(1), 112-127.
• Scala, D.J., & Johnson, K.M. (2017). Political Polarization along the Rural-Urban Continuum? The Geography of the Presidential Vote, 2000–2016. The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 672(1), 162-184.
• Walker, S., (2020), Genocide denial gains ground 25 years after Srebrenica massacre. Available at:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/10/genocide-denial-gains-ground-25-years-after-srebrenica-massacre, accessed on February 15, 2020.