Orta Gelir Tuzağı Bağlamında İhracatta Ürün Çeşitliliği ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin İncelenmesi

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 1, 145 - 168, 30.06.2019

Müge Manga

https://doi.org/10.18074/ckuiibfd.484244

Cited By: 4

Öz

Orta gelir tuzağı, ülkelerin uzun bir zaman diliminde aynı gelir
grubunda kalıp uluslararası rekabet düzeyini yitirmiş olması şeklinde ifade
edilen bir kavramdır. Kanchoochat ve Intarakumnerd (2014) çalışmasında, orta
gelir tuzağından çıkış amacıyla ifade edilen önemli stratejilerden biri,
ülkelerin ihracat kompozisyonlarında çeşitliliğe yönelmeleri gerektiği
şeklindedir. İhracat kompozisyonun çeşitlendirilmesinin, orta gelir tuzağı
riskine etkisinin test edilmesi amacıyla mevcut çalışmada, seçilmiş ülkeler, 1995-2015 dönemi için Robertson ve Ye (2013)’nin orta gelir tuzağı
önerisine göre, orta gelir tuzağında olan ve orta gelir tuzağından kaçan
ülkeler olmak üzere ikiye ayrılmaktadır. Yapılan analizde, ihracat
kompozisyonunun çeşitliliğini gösteren Herfindahl-Hirschman Endeksi ile ekonomik büyüme
arasındaki ilişki panel veri analiz yöntemleri ile test edilmektedir. Elde
edilen sonuçlar, orta gelir tuzağında olan ülkelerin ekonomik büyümelerinin
ihracatta ürün çeşitliliğinden pozitif, orta gelir tuzağından kaçan ülkelerin
ise negatif yönde etkilendiği yönündedir. Yapılan analizin bulguları, orta gelirli
ülkelerin ihracatta ürün çeşitliliğine, orta gelir tuzağından kaçan ülkelerin
ise ihracatta uzmanlaşmaya yönelmeleri gerektiğini göstermektedir. Bu
çerçevede, çalışmanın sonuç bölümünde, orta gelir tuzağında olan ülkeler için
yüksek gelirli ülkeler sınıfına yükselme aşamasına kadar ihracatta ürün
çeşitliliğinin desteklenmesine yönelik çeşitli politik önerilerde
bulunulmaktadır. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

İhracat Çeşitliliği, Orta Gelir Tuzağı, Orta Gelir Tuzağındaki Ülkeler

Kaynakça

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