GELİŞMEKTE OLAN ÜLKELER KÜRESEL SERMAYEYİ ÇEKME KONUSUNDA NİÇİN BAŞARISIZ OLMAKTADIRLAR? BALKAN ÜLKELERİ İÇİN LUCAS PARADOKSUNUN YENİDEN İNCELENMESİ

Yıl 2015, Cilt: 24 Sayı: 1, 13 - 30, 30.04.2015

Mehmet Demiral , Harun Bal , Neşe Algan

Öz

Neoklasik teori, yatırım getirilerindeki farklılıklar eşitleninceye kadar sermayenin gelişmiş (zengin) ülkelerden gelişmekte olan (fakir) ülkelere gideceğini öngörmektedir. Bununla birlikte ünlü örneğinde Lucas (1990), 1988 yılında Hindistan’da sermayenin marjinal verimliliğinin ABD’dekinin yaklaşık 58 katı olmasına rağmen uygulamada böyle bir sermaye akımının gerçekleşmediğini göstermiştir. Giderek bütünleşen bir dünyada Lucas Paradoksu’nun neden hala görüldüğüne cevaplar arayan bu çalışma, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar (DYY’ler)’a gerçekte yön veren faktörleri seçilmiş dokuz Balkan ülkesi kapsamında araştırmaktadır. 2000-2012 dönemini kapsayan çalışmada yıllık dengeli panel veri seti kullanılarak çekim modeli tahmin edilmektedir. Genel sonuçlar, incelenen Balkan ülkeleri için Lucas Paradoksu’nu destekler niteliktedir. Sonuçlar regülasyonların, ülke riskinin ve DYY’lerde Çin’in artan cazibesinin Balkan ülkelerinin performansını engellediğini, buna karşın söz konusu ülkelerin beşeri sermayede, altyapıda ve lojistik servislerde gösterdiği ilerlemelerin DYY’lerdeki küresel paylarını artırdığını ortaya koymaktadır. Ayrıca, artan araştırma ve geliştirme yatırımları ile Avrupa Birliği (AB) üyelik sürecindeki ilerlemelerin, küresel DYY’lerin bu ülkelere yönelmesini teşvik edeceği görülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

DYY, Lucas paradoksu, Balkan ülkeleri, Çekim modeli.

Kaynakça

• Anderson, J. E. (1979). A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation. American Economic Review, 69 (1): 106-116. Arbatli, E. (2011). Economic Policies and FDI Inflows to Emerging Market Economies. IMF Working Papers, WP/11/192. Arvis, J. F., Mustra, M. A., Ojala, L., Shepherd, B. & Saslavsky, D. (2012). Connecting to Compete 2012 Trade Logistics in the Global Economy: The Logistics Performance Index and Its Indicators. Washington, DC: The World Bank Asiedu, E. (2002). On the Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment to Developing Countries: Is Africa Different?. World Development, 30 (1): 107-119. Baldwin, R. E., Forslid, R. & Haaland, J. I. (1996). Investment Creation and Diversion in Europe. The World Economy, 19 (6): 635-659. Bevan, A. & Estrin, S. (2000). The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Transition Economies. William Davidson Institute Working Papers, 342. Bevan, A., Estrin, S. & Meyer, K. (2004). Foreign Investment Location and Institutional Development in Transition Economies. International Business Review, 13(1): 43-64. Brada, J. C., Kutan, A. M. & Yigit, T. M. (2006). The Effects of Transition and Political instability on Foreign Direct Investment Inflows: Central Europe and the Balkans. Economics of Transition, 14(4): 649-680. Buch, C. M., Kokta, R. M. & Piazolo, D. (2003). Foreign Direct Investment in Europe: Is There Redirection from the South to the East? Journal Journal of Comparative Economics, 31(1): 94-109. Dunning, J. H. & Lundan, S. M. (2008). Multinational Enterprises and the Global Economy. 2nd ed., Northampton: Edward Elgar Publishing. Estrin, S. & Uvalic, M. (2013). FDI Into Transition Economies: Are The Balkans Different? London School of Economics LEQS Papers, 64/2013. Feenstra, R. C., Inklaar, R. & Timmer, M. P. (2013). The Next Generation of the Penn World Table. www.ggdc.net/pwt (Erişim tarihi: 12.03.2014). Folfas, P. (2011). FDI between EU Member States: Gravity Model and Taxes. http://www.etsg.org/ETSG2011/Papers/Folfas.pdf (Erişim tarihi: 12.04.2014) Gholami, R., Lee, S. Y. T. & Heshmati, A. (2005). The Causal Relationship between ICT and FDI. UNU-WIDER Research Papers, 2005/26. Girma, S., Görg, H. & Pisu, M. (2008). Exporting, Linkages and Productivity Spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment. Canadian Journal of Economics, 41(1): 320-340. Güngör, H. & Ogus Binatli, A. (2010). The Effect of European Accession Prospects on Foreign Direct Investment Flows. Izmir University of Economics Working Papers in Economics, http://eco.ieu.edu.tr/wp-content/wp1006.pdf (Erişim tarihi: 16.03.2014). Hausman, J. A. & Taylor, W. E. (1981). Panel Data and Unobservable Individual Effects. Econometrica, 49(6): 1377-1398. Head, K. & Mayer, T. (2013). Gravity Equations: Workhorse, Toolkit, and Cookbook. http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-27.pdf (Erişim tarihi: 16.02.2014). Hsiao, C. (2003). Analysis of Panel Data. 2nd ed., Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press. Hummels, D., Rapoport, D. & Yi, K. (1998). Vertical Specialization and the Changing Nature of World Trade. FRBNY Economic Policy Review: 79-99. Hummels, D., Ishii, J. & Yi, K. (2001). The Nature and Growth of Vertical Specialization in World Trade. Journal of International Economics, 54(1): 75-96. IMF-International Monetary Fund (2004). http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/bop/pdf/diteg20.pdf (Erişim tarihi: 10.03.2014). ITC-International Trade Center (2003). A Gravity Model for The Calculation of Trade Potentials for Developing Countries and Economies in Transition. http://lionel.fontagne.free.fr/papers/TSM_MII.pdf (Erişim tarihi: 19.01.2014). Jadhav, P. (2012). Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in BRICS Economies: Analysis of Economic, Institutional and Political Factor. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 37: 5-14. Janicki, H. P. & Wunnava, P. V. (2004). Determinants of FDI: Empirical Evidence from EU Accession Candidates. Applied Economics, 36(5): 505-509. Lanz, R. & Miroudot, S. (2011). Intra-Firm Trade: Patterns, Determinants and Policy Implications. OECD Trade Policy Papers, 114. Levin, A., Lin, C. F. & Chu, C. S. J. (2002). Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite-Sample Properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108(1): 1-24. Linnemann, H. (1966). An Econometric Study of International Trade Flows. Amsterdam: North-Holland. Lipsey, R. E. (2002). Home and Host Country Effects of FDI. NBER WP Series, 9293. Lucas, R. E. (1990). Why Doesn’t Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries? The American Economic Review, 80 (2): 92-96. Milner C., Reed G. & Talernsgri P. (2004). Foreign Direct Investment and Vertical Integration of Production by Japanese Multinationals in Thailan. Journal of Comparative Economics, 32 (4): 805-821 OECD (2014a). FDI Regulatory Restrictiveness Index, http://www.oecd.org/investment/fdiindex.htm (Erişim tarihi: 17.03.2014). OECD (2014b). FDI Flows by Industry. http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode (Erişim tarihi: 07.01.2014). Portes R. & Rey H. (2005). The Determinants of Cross-Border Equity Flows. Journal of International Economics, 65(2): 269-296. Poyhonen, P. (1963). A Tentative Model for the Volume of Trade between Countries. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 90: 93-99. Priya, G. & Archana, S. (2014). Macroeconomic Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in BRIC Nations. South Asian Journal of Marketing & Management Research, 4 (2): 1-12. Resmini, L., 2000, The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in the CEECs. Economics of Transition, 8 (3): 665-89. Shatz, H. J. & Venables, A. J. (2000). The Geography of International Investment, Clark, M. F. & M. S. Gertler (eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, Oxford. Sönmez, A. & Pamukçu, M. T. (2011). Foreign Direct Investment and Technology Spillovers in the Turkish Manufacturing Industry. TEKPOL Working Papers. Taymaz, E. & Yılmaz, K. (2008). Foreign Direct Investment and Productivity Spillovers: Identifying Linkages through Product-based Measures. http://www.esam.itu.edu.tr/ (Erişim tarihi: 20.03.2014). Tinbergen, J. (1962). Shaping the World Economy; Suggestions for an International Economic Policy. New York: Twentieth Century Fund. UNCTAD (2005). Developing Countries in International Trade 2005: Trade and Development Index. New York & Geneva: United Nations Publication. UNCTAD (2012). TDR 2012: Policies for Inclusive and Balanced Growth. New York & Geneva: United Nations Publication. UNCTAD (2013). World Investment Report 2013: Global Value Chains: Investment and Trade for Development. New York & Geneva: United Nations Publication. Walsh, J. P. & Yu, J. (2010). Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment: A Sectoral and Institutional Approach. IMF Working Papers, WP/10/187. http://www.imf.org/ external/pubs/ft/wp/2010/wp10187.pdf (Erişim tarihi: 26.01.2014). WIIW-The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (2014). FDI Database, http://data.wiiw.ac.at/foreign-direct-investment.html (Erişim tarihi: 06.01.2014). CEPII. www.cepii.fr.CEPII.en. (Erişim tarihi: 08.04.2014). CIA World Factbook. www.cia.gov. (Erişim tarihi: 05.03.2014). EUROSTAT. www.eurostat.ec.europa.eu. (Erişim tarihi: 26.03.2014). Penn World Table. www.pwt.sas.upenn.edu. (Erişim tarihi: 12.03.2014). PRS Group. www.prsgroup.com. (Erişim tarihi: 16.05.2014). UNCTAD. www.unctad.org.en.Pages.Statistics.aspx (Erişim tarihi: 24.03.2014). US-EIA. www.eia.gov. (Erişim tarihi: 18.04.2014). WB-WDI. www.databank.worldbank.org. (Erişim tarihi: 24.03.2014). WIIW. www.wiiw.ac.at. (Erişim tarihi: 16.04.2014).