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EXPORT-LED GROWTH HYPOTHESIS: TURKISH CASE

Yıl 2015, Cilt: 17 Sayı: 4, 517 - 530, 08.04.2016

Yağmur Sağlam Hüseyin Avni Egeli

https://doi.org/10.16953/deusbed.60695

Öz

Trade policies have an important role on countries growth and development process. The export-led growth hypothesis assumes that there is a casual relationship between export and growth. In this paper the validity of export-led growth hypothesis was analysed with quarterly data for the period between 1999-2013. After implementing unit root, co-integration tests and Granger causality test which is based on error correction mechanism, we find an evidence to support the hypothesis that there is short-run bidirectional and long-run unidirectional causality between export and gross domestic product in Turkey. 

Keywords: Export-led Growth, Co-integration, Causality, Turkey.

Kaynakça

  • Asafu-Adjaye, J. (2000). The relationship between energy consumption, energy prices and economic growth: Time series evidence from Asian developing countries. Energy Economics, 22 (6): 615-625.
  • Awokuse, T. O. ve Christopoulos, D. K. (2009). Nonlinear dynamics and the exports-output growth nexus. Economic Modelling, 26 (1): 184-190.
  • Balassa, B. (1985). Exports, policy choices, and economic growth in developing countries after the 1973 oil shock. Journal of Development Economics,18 (1): 23-35.
  • Bhagwati, J. (1988). Protectionism. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
  • Brooks, C. (2008). Introductory econometrics for finance. New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • Castro-Zuniga, H. (2005). Export-led growth in Honduras and the Central American region. Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi. Louisiana State University, Graduate Faculty, The Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, Lousiana, ABD. http://etd.lsu.edu/docs/available/etd-12032004-070104/ unrestricted/Final_Thesis_Document.pdf, (15.03.2014).
  • Charemza, W. W. ve Deadman, D. F. (1997). New directions in econometric practise. Cheltenham: Edvard Elgar.
  • Darrat, A. F. (1987). Are exports an engine of growth? Another look at the evidence. Applied Economics, 19 (2): 277-283.
  • Dickey, D. A. ve Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74 (336): 427-431.
  • Dickey, D. A. ve Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49 (4): 1057-1072.
  • Engle, R. F. ve Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica, 55 (2): 251-276.
  • Feder, G. (1983). On exports and economic growth. Journal of Development Economics, 12 (1-2): 59-73.
  • Felipe, J. (2010). Inclusive growth, full employment and structural change, implications and policies for developing Asia. Second edition. London: Anthem Press.
  • Fruoka, F. (2007). Panel data analysis of export-led growth hypothesis in ASEAN. MPRA - Munich Personal RePEc Archive Working Paper No: 5830.
  • Granger, C. W. J. (1988). Some recent developments in a concept of causality. Journal of Econometrics, 39 (1-2): 199-211.
  • Halıcıoğlu, F. (2007). A multivariate causality analysis of export and growth for Turkey. MPRA (Munich Personal RePEc Archive) Paper No: 3565. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3565/1/MPRA_paper_3565.pdf, (21.10.2015).
  • Hatemi, A. ve Irandoust, M. (2000). Time series evidence for Balassa’s export-led growth hypothesis. Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 9 (3): 355-365.
  • Henriques, I. ve Sadorsky, P. (1996). Export-led growth or growth-driven exports? The Canadian case. The Canadian Journal of Economics, 29 (3): 540-555. http://www.jstor.org/stable/136249, (21.10.2015).
  • Herrerias, M. J. ve Orts, V. (2010). Is the export-led growth hypothesis enough to account for China’s growth?. China & World Economy, 18 (4): 34-51.
  • Herzer, D., Nowak-Lehmann, F. ve Siliverstovs, B. (2006). Export-led growth in Chile: Assessing the role of export composition in productivity growth. The Developing Economies, 44 (3): 306-328.
  • Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12 (2-3): 231-254.
  • Johansen, S. ve Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on co-integration with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52 (2): 169-210.
  • Johnson, H. G. (1967). Economic policies toward less developed countries. The Yale Law Journal, 76 (8): 1735-1739.
  • Jung, W. S. ve Marshall, P. J. (1985). Exports, growth and causality in developing countries. Journal of Development Economics, 18 (1): 1-12.
  • Korum, U. (1977). Türk imalat sanayi ve ithal ikamesi: Bir değerlendirme. Ankara: Ankara Üniversitesi Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi, Yayın No: 408.
  • Kotil, E. ve Konur, F. (2010). The relationship between growth and foreign trade in Turkey: A Granger causality approach (1987-2007). Middle Eastern Finance and Economics, 1 (6): 32-40.
  • Kurt, S. ve Terzi, H. (2007). İmalat sanayi ve dış ticaret verimlilik ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 21 (1): 25-46.
  • Mangır, F. (2012). Export and economic growth in Turkey: Co-integration and causality Analysis. Economics, Management and Financial Markets, 7 (1): 67-80.
  • Marin, D. (1992). Is the export-led growth hypothesis valid for industrialized countries? The Review of Economics & Statistics, 74 (4): 678-688.
  • Medina-Smith, E. J. (2001). Is the export-led growth hypothesis valid for developing countries? A case study of Costa Rica. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Policy Issues In International Trade and Commodities Study Series, No. 7. New York ve Geneva: United Nations Publication.
  • Myint, H. (1954). Gains in international trade and backward countries. Review of Economic Studies, 22 (2): 129-142.
  • Özcan, B. ve Özçelebi, O. (2013). İhracata dayalı büyüme hipotezi Türkiye için geçerli mi?. Yönetim ve Ekonomi, 20 (1): 1-14.
  • Özmen, A, Özer, M. ve Türkyilmaz, S. (1999). Türkiye’de ihracat ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedenselliğe ilişkin bir uygulama denemesi. Marmara Üniversitesi Yayın No: 640: 379-392.
  • Öztürk, İ. ve Acaravci, A. (2010). Testing the export- led growth hypothesis: Empirical evidence from Turkey. The Journal of Developing Areas, 44 (1): 245-254.
  • Phillips, P. C. B. ve Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75 (2): 335-346.
  • Ram, R. (1985). Exports and economic growth: Some additional evidence. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 33 (2): 415-425.
  • Rana, P. B. ve Dowling, J. M. (1990). Foreign capital and Asian economic growth. Asian Development Review, 8 (2): 77-102.
  • Sağlam, Y. ve Egeli, H. A. (2013). İmalat sanayinin gelişimi ve dışa açıklık üzerine bir uygulama: 1996-2011 Türkiye örneği. Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar Dergisi, 50 (583): 27-42.
  • Shan, J. ve Tian, G. G. (1998). Causality between exports and economic growth: The empirical evidence from Shanghai. Australian Economic Papers, 37 (2): 195-202.
  • Siliverstovs, B. ve Herzer, D. (2006). Export-led growth hypothesis: Evidence for Chile. Applied Economic Letters, 13 (5): 319-324.
  • Şenses, F. ve Taymaz, E. (2003). Unutulan bir toplumsal amaç: Sanayileşme ne oluyor? Ne olmalı?. ERC Working Papers in Economics, 3 (1): 1-23.
  • Taban, S. ve Aktar, İ. (2008). An Emprical Examination of The Turkey Export-Led Growth Hypothesis in Turkey. Journal of Yaşar University, 3 (11): 1535-1551.
  • Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (2014). Temel istatistiki göstergeler. http://www.tuik.gov.tr/UstMenu.do?metod=temelist, (15.03.2014).
  • Ullah, S., Zaman, B., Farooq, M. ve Javid, A. (2009). Co-integration and causality between exports and economic growth in Pakistan. European Journal of Social Sciences, 10 (2): 264-272.
  • Waithe, K., Lorde, T. ve Francis, B. (2011). Export-led growth: A case study of Mexico. International Journal of Business, Humanities and Technology, 1 (1): 33-44.

İHRACATA DAYALI BÜYÜME HİPOTEZİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Yıl 2015, Cilt: 17 Sayı: 4, 517 - 530, 08.04.2016

Yağmur Sağlam Hüseyin Avni Egeli

https://doi.org/10.16953/deusbed.60695

Öz

Dış ticaret politikalarının ülkelerin büyüme ve kalkınma süreçleri üzerinde önemli bir role sahip olduğu literatürde kabul görmektedir. İhracata dayalı büyüme hipotezi de, ihracat ve büyüme arasında bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğunu varsaymaktadır. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı Türkiye için 1999-2013 periyodunu dönemsel veriler ile analiz ederek değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin yönünü belirlemek ve hipotezin geçerliliğini sınamaktır. Birim kök ve eşbütünleşme testleri sonrasında yapılan hata düzeltme mekanizmasına dayalı Granger nedensellik testi bulgularına göre kısa dönem için değişkenler arasında çift yönlü (feedback) yani birbirini besleyen ve uzun dönem için tek yönlü, ihracattan büyümeye doğru bir nedensellik ilişkisi mevcuttur.

Anahtar Kelimeler: İhracata Dayalı Büyüme, Eşbütünleşme, Nedensellik, Türkiye.

Kaynakça

  • Asafu-Adjaye, J. (2000). The relationship between energy consumption, energy prices and economic growth: Time series evidence from Asian developing countries. Energy Economics, 22 (6): 615-625.
  • Awokuse, T. O. ve Christopoulos, D. K. (2009). Nonlinear dynamics and the exports-output growth nexus. Economic Modelling, 26 (1): 184-190.
  • Balassa, B. (1985). Exports, policy choices, and economic growth in developing countries after the 1973 oil shock. Journal of Development Economics,18 (1): 23-35.
  • Bhagwati, J. (1988). Protectionism. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
  • Brooks, C. (2008). Introductory econometrics for finance. New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • Castro-Zuniga, H. (2005). Export-led growth in Honduras and the Central American region. Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi. Louisiana State University, Graduate Faculty, The Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, Lousiana, ABD. http://etd.lsu.edu/docs/available/etd-12032004-070104/ unrestricted/Final_Thesis_Document.pdf, (15.03.2014).
  • Charemza, W. W. ve Deadman, D. F. (1997). New directions in econometric practise. Cheltenham: Edvard Elgar.
  • Darrat, A. F. (1987). Are exports an engine of growth? Another look at the evidence. Applied Economics, 19 (2): 277-283.
  • Dickey, D. A. ve Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74 (336): 427-431.
  • Dickey, D. A. ve Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49 (4): 1057-1072.
  • Engle, R. F. ve Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica, 55 (2): 251-276.
  • Feder, G. (1983). On exports and economic growth. Journal of Development Economics, 12 (1-2): 59-73.
  • Felipe, J. (2010). Inclusive growth, full employment and structural change, implications and policies for developing Asia. Second edition. London: Anthem Press.
  • Fruoka, F. (2007). Panel data analysis of export-led growth hypothesis in ASEAN. MPRA - Munich Personal RePEc Archive Working Paper No: 5830.
  • Granger, C. W. J. (1988). Some recent developments in a concept of causality. Journal of Econometrics, 39 (1-2): 199-211.
  • Halıcıoğlu, F. (2007). A multivariate causality analysis of export and growth for Turkey. MPRA (Munich Personal RePEc Archive) Paper No: 3565. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3565/1/MPRA_paper_3565.pdf, (21.10.2015).
  • Hatemi, A. ve Irandoust, M. (2000). Time series evidence for Balassa’s export-led growth hypothesis. Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 9 (3): 355-365.
  • Henriques, I. ve Sadorsky, P. (1996). Export-led growth or growth-driven exports? The Canadian case. The Canadian Journal of Economics, 29 (3): 540-555. http://www.jstor.org/stable/136249, (21.10.2015).
  • Herrerias, M. J. ve Orts, V. (2010). Is the export-led growth hypothesis enough to account for China’s growth?. China & World Economy, 18 (4): 34-51.
  • Herzer, D., Nowak-Lehmann, F. ve Siliverstovs, B. (2006). Export-led growth in Chile: Assessing the role of export composition in productivity growth. The Developing Economies, 44 (3): 306-328.
  • Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12 (2-3): 231-254.
  • Johansen, S. ve Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on co-integration with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52 (2): 169-210.
  • Johnson, H. G. (1967). Economic policies toward less developed countries. The Yale Law Journal, 76 (8): 1735-1739.
  • Jung, W. S. ve Marshall, P. J. (1985). Exports, growth and causality in developing countries. Journal of Development Economics, 18 (1): 1-12.
  • Korum, U. (1977). Türk imalat sanayi ve ithal ikamesi: Bir değerlendirme. Ankara: Ankara Üniversitesi Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi, Yayın No: 408.
  • Kotil, E. ve Konur, F. (2010). The relationship between growth and foreign trade in Turkey: A Granger causality approach (1987-2007). Middle Eastern Finance and Economics, 1 (6): 32-40.
  • Kurt, S. ve Terzi, H. (2007). İmalat sanayi ve dış ticaret verimlilik ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 21 (1): 25-46.
  • Mangır, F. (2012). Export and economic growth in Turkey: Co-integration and causality Analysis. Economics, Management and Financial Markets, 7 (1): 67-80.
  • Marin, D. (1992). Is the export-led growth hypothesis valid for industrialized countries? The Review of Economics & Statistics, 74 (4): 678-688.
  • Medina-Smith, E. J. (2001). Is the export-led growth hypothesis valid for developing countries? A case study of Costa Rica. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Policy Issues In International Trade and Commodities Study Series, No. 7. New York ve Geneva: United Nations Publication.
  • Myint, H. (1954). Gains in international trade and backward countries. Review of Economic Studies, 22 (2): 129-142.
  • Özcan, B. ve Özçelebi, O. (2013). İhracata dayalı büyüme hipotezi Türkiye için geçerli mi?. Yönetim ve Ekonomi, 20 (1): 1-14.
  • Özmen, A, Özer, M. ve Türkyilmaz, S. (1999). Türkiye’de ihracat ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedenselliğe ilişkin bir uygulama denemesi. Marmara Üniversitesi Yayın No: 640: 379-392.
  • Öztürk, İ. ve Acaravci, A. (2010). Testing the export- led growth hypothesis: Empirical evidence from Turkey. The Journal of Developing Areas, 44 (1): 245-254.
  • Phillips, P. C. B. ve Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75 (2): 335-346.
  • Ram, R. (1985). Exports and economic growth: Some additional evidence. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 33 (2): 415-425.
  • Rana, P. B. ve Dowling, J. M. (1990). Foreign capital and Asian economic growth. Asian Development Review, 8 (2): 77-102.
  • Sağlam, Y. ve Egeli, H. A. (2013). İmalat sanayinin gelişimi ve dışa açıklık üzerine bir uygulama: 1996-2011 Türkiye örneği. Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar Dergisi, 50 (583): 27-42.
  • Shan, J. ve Tian, G. G. (1998). Causality between exports and economic growth: The empirical evidence from Shanghai. Australian Economic Papers, 37 (2): 195-202.
  • Siliverstovs, B. ve Herzer, D. (2006). Export-led growth hypothesis: Evidence for Chile. Applied Economic Letters, 13 (5): 319-324.
  • Şenses, F. ve Taymaz, E. (2003). Unutulan bir toplumsal amaç: Sanayileşme ne oluyor? Ne olmalı?. ERC Working Papers in Economics, 3 (1): 1-23.
  • Taban, S. ve Aktar, İ. (2008). An Emprical Examination of The Turkey Export-Led Growth Hypothesis in Turkey. Journal of Yaşar University, 3 (11): 1535-1551.
  • Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (2014). Temel istatistiki göstergeler. http://www.tuik.gov.tr/UstMenu.do?metod=temelist, (15.03.2014).
  • Ullah, S., Zaman, B., Farooq, M. ve Javid, A. (2009). Co-integration and causality between exports and economic growth in Pakistan. European Journal of Social Sciences, 10 (2): 264-272.
  • Waithe, K., Lorde, T. ve Francis, B. (2011). Export-led growth: A case study of Mexico. International Journal of Business, Humanities and Technology, 1 (1): 33-44.
Toplam 45 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Yağmur Sağlam Bu kişi benim

Hüseyin Avni Egeli

Yayımlanma Tarihi 8 Nisan 2016
Gönderilme Tarihi 12 Eylül 2014
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2015 Cilt: 17 Sayı: 4

Kaynak Göster

APA Sağlam, Y., & Egeli, H. A. (2016). İHRACATA DAYALI BÜYÜME HİPOTEZİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 17(4), 517-530. https://doi.org/10.16953/deusbed.60695